Reduced-complexity air quality intervention modelling over China: development of the InMAPv1.6.1-China and comparison with the CMAQv5.2 model

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents the first development and evaluation of the reduced-complexity air quality model for China. In this study, a reduced-complexity air quality intervention model over China (InMAPv1.6.1-China, hereafter, InMAP-China) is developed by linking a regional air quality model, a reduced-complexity air quality model, an emission inventory database for China, and a health impact assessment model to rapidly estimate the air quality and health impacts of emission sources in China. The modelling system is applied over mainland China for 2017 under various emission scenarios. A comprehensive model evaluation is conducted by comparison against conventional CMAQ simulations and ground-based observations. We found that InMAP-China satisfactorily predicted total PM2.5 concentrations in terms of statistical performance. Compared with the observed PM2.5 concentrations, the mean bias (MB), normalized mean bias (NMB), and correlations of the total PM2.5 concentrations are −8.1\u2009μg/m3, −18\u2009%, and 0.6, respectively. The statistical performance is considered to be satisfactory for a reduced-complexity air quality model and remains consistent with that evaluated in the United States. The underestimation of total PM2.5 concentrations was mainly caused by its composition, primary PM2.5. In terms of the ability to quantify source contributions of PM2.5 concentrations, InMAP-China presents similar results in comparison with those based on the CMAQ model, the difference is mainly caused by the different mechanism and the treatment of secondary inorganic aerosols in the two models. Focusing on the health impacts, the annual PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated using InMAP-China in 2017 was 1.92 million, which was 25 ten thousand deaths lower than that estimated based on CMAQ simulations as a result of underestimation of PM2.5 concentrations. This work presents a version of the reduced-complexity air quality model over China, provides a powerful tool to rapidly assess the air quality and health impacts associated with control policy, and to quantify the source contribution attributable to many emission sources.