Archive | 2021
Comment on npg-2021-16
Abstract
The authors investigate the probabilistic impact of large scale atmospheric flow on small scale convective activity, using CAPE and vertical velocity as indicators, respectively. They apply a Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR) algorithm which was presented previously, to find so called latent states of the categorical input variable – the spatially averaged CAPE (averaged over (500km)2 ) and to estimate the probabilities of the categorical output – the number of small scale boxes with upward and downward vertical velocity conditioned on these latent states.