User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

Abstract

Abstract. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing\nEURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new\nsimulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change.\nThe focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required\nfor the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in\ntemperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model\nensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the\nmitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as\nusual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual\ntemperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3\xa0times higher\nfor RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be\ntwice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.