2D sequential data assimilation in Elmer/Ice with Stokes

Abstract

<p>Providing suitable initial states is a long-standing problem in numerical modelling of glaciers and ice sheets. Models often require lengthy relaxation periods to dissipate incompatibilities between input datasets gathered over different timeframes, which may lead to the modelled initial state diverging significantly from the real state of the glacier, with consequent effects on the accuracy of the simulation. Sequential data assimilation offers one possibility for resolving this issue: by running the model over a period for which various observational datasets are available and loading observations into the model at the time they were gathered, the model state can be brought into good agreement with the real glacier state at the end of the observational window. This assimilated model state can then be used to initialise prognostic runs without introducing model artefacts or a distorted picture of the actual glacier.</p><p>In this study, we present a framework for conducting sequential data assimilation in a 2D, flowline setting of the open-source, finite-element glacier flow model, Elmer/Ice, and solving the Stokes equations rather than using the shallow shelf approximation. Assimilation is undertaken using the open-source PDAF library developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute. We demonstrate that the set-up allows us to accurately retrieve the bed of a synthetic glacier and present our progress in extending it to a full 3D simulation.</p>