Extremeness of recent drought events in Switzerland: dependence on variable and return period choice

Abstract

The 2018 drought event had severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. How extreme was it in Switzerland? We addressed this question by looking at different types of drought, including meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and groundwater drought, and at the two characteristics deficit and deficit duration. The analysis consisted of three main steps: (1) event identification using a thresholdlevel approach, (2) drought frequency analysis, and (3) comparison of the 2018 event to the severe 2003 and 2015 events. In Step 2 the variables precipitation, discharge, soil moisture, and low-flow storage were first considered separately in a univariate frequency analysis; pairs of variables were then investigated jointly in a bivariate frequency analysis using a copula model for expressing the dependence between the two variables under consideration. Our results show that the 2018 event was especially severe in north-eastern Switzerland in terms of soil moisture, with return periods locally exceeding 100 years. Slightly longer return periods were estimated when discharge and soil moisture deficits were considered together. The return period estimates depended on the region, variable, and return period considered. A single answer to the question of how extreme the 2018 drought event was in Switzerland is therefore not possible – rather, it depends on the processes one is interested in.