A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations

Abstract

Abstract. Observations of sea ice freeboard from satellite radar altimeters are crucial in the derivation of sea ice thickness estimates, which in turn inform on sea ice forecasts, volume budgets, and productivity rates. Current spatio-temporal resolution of radar freeboard is limited as 30 days are required in order to generate pan-Arctic coverage from CryoSat-2, or 27 days from Sentinel-3 satellites. This therefore hinders our ability to understand physical processes that drive sea ice thickness variability on sub-monthly time scales. In this study we exploit the consistency between CryoSat-2, Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B radar freeboards in order to produce daily gridded pan-Arctic freeboard estimates between December 2018 and April 2019. We use the Bayesian inference approach of Gaussian Process Regression to learn functional mappings between radar freeboard observations in space and time, and to subsequently retrieve pan-Arctic freeboard, as well as uncertainty estimates. The estimated daily fields are, on average across the 2018–2019 season, equivalent to CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 freeboards to within 2\u2009mm (standard deviations < 5\u2009cm), and cross-validation experiments show that errors in predictions are, on average, within 3\u2009mm across the same period. We also demonstrate the improved temporal variability of a pan-Arctic daily product by comparing time series of the predicted freeboards, with time series from CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 freeboards, across 9 sectors of the Arctic. The mean of predicted and CryoSat-2 or Sentinel-3 time series are generally consistent to within 3\u2009mm, except for the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian Seas, which show discrepancies greater than 1\u2009cm due, in part, to biases between CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 observations in these locations.\n