Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interaction in a Large Emerging Economy: Which Is the Leader Policy?

Abstract

This article analyzed the intertemporal interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil. We aimed at identifying if structural innovations to the real interest rate were able to induce unexpected effects on fiscal and inflation dynamics. To do so, we estimated Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models over the period from Jan/2004 to Apr/2019. Moreover, we filtered out the time series’ long-memory component through a fractional integration approach, so that we did not build our analysis on traditional unit root tests. The findings showed that monetary policy shocks robustly activated an unconventional transmission channel based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, i.e., an unexpected and induced change in primary surpluses, through a wealth effect, as mechanism to satisfy the Government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Such a result is strongly linked to another evidence, that is, the monetary policy`s role as a leader in shaping inflation over time.