Mine subsidence prediction using gene expression programming based on multivariable symbolic regression

Abstract

Accurate prediction of surface subsidence becomes a significant challenge for active industrial companies in coal mining fields due to the importance of the economic impacts of longwall mining-induced subsidence. This article explores a new variant of genetic programming, namely gene expression programming (GEP). The GEP-based method is utilized to present a new mathematical formula for subsidence prediction in longwall coal mining. The derived model includes both geometrical and geological variables. The data set consists of field measurements obtained through 37 longwall panels of Ulan coal mine, NSW, Australia. The GEP-based model concluded satisfactory subsidence prediction outcomes compared to other empirical methods such as NCB, DMR, ACARP, and IPM. The predictive ability of the GEP-based models, which captures the complex nonlinear effects of the critical factors on the magnitude of subsidence, resulted in a statistically significant improvement in predictive capacity compared to the aforementioned empirical methods. The sensitivity analysis results indicated that Panel width and cover thickness with 31% and 23% were the most influential parameters in the proposed model. Also, the extracted seam thickness, thick layer location, and thick layer thickness had 19%, 16%, and 11% impact on the GEP proposed model, respectively.