Bayesian meta-analysis of studies with rare events: Do the choice of prior distributions and the exclusion of studies without events in both arms matter?

Abstract

1 Title 1 Bayesian meta-analysis of studies with rare events: Do the choice of prior distributions and 2 the exclusion of studies without events in both arms matter? 3 4 Authors: 5 Soheila Aghlmandi, Peter Jüni, James Carpenter, Marcel Zwahlen 6 1 Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Mittelstrasse 43, 7 CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland 8 2 Institute for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University Hospital Basel, 9 Spitalstrasse 12, CHBasel, Switzerland 10 3 Applied Health Research Centre (AHRC), St. Michael’s Hospital, Department of Medicine, 11 University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario M5B 1W8 12 13 4 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), University of London, Keppel 14 Street, London WC1E 7HT 15 16 17 Corresponding author: 18 Soheila Aghlmandi 19 [email protected] 20 21 22 Short title: Bayesian meta-analysis of rare events 23 Word counts: 4700 24 Number of figures: 5 25 Number of tables: 6 26 Number of references: 30 27