Carsten A. Holz

China's Investment Rate: Implications and Data Reliability

China’s rapid economic growth over the past forty years was in good part driven by capital accumulation, with, in recent years, investment taking up almost half of output. This paper documents the role of investment in driving economic growth in China, questions how much longer China can sustain high investment rates, and critically examines arguments suggesting an end to the investment boom. The size of the Chinese economy allows investment to remain broad-based across all economic sectors, with little specialization. The foreign share of investment in China has become negligible, and the China growth story thus has become a domestic one.

Monthly Industrial Output in China Since 1983

Monthly economic indicators are used for a variety of purposes, from studying business cycles to determining economic policy and making informed business decisions. China’s published monthly industrial output statistics could hardly be more confusing, with changes in variables, in coverage, in measurement, and in presentation. This paper reviews the available official data and proceeds to construct a monthly industrial output series in nominal terms and in real terms for the period since May 1983, economy-wide and for the state sector.