Ulf Ekelund

Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects

To implement effective non-communicable disease prevention programmes, policy makers need data for physical activity levels and trends. In this report, we describe physical activity levels worldwide with data for adults (15 years or older) from 122 countries and for adolescents (13-15-years-old) from 105 countries. Worldwide, 31·1% (95% CI 30·9-31·2) of adults are physically inactive, with proportions ranging from 17·0% (16·8-17·2) in southeast Asia to about 43% in the Americas and the eastern Mediterranean. Inactivity rises with age, is higher in women than in men, and is increased in high-income countries. The proportion of 13-15-year-olds doing fewer than 60 min of physical activity of moderate to vigorous intensity per day is 80·3% (80·1-80·5); boys are more active than are girls. Continued improvement in monitoring of physical activity would help to guide development of policies and programmes to increase activity levels and to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases.

Physical activity and clustered cardiovascular risk in children: a cross-sectional study (The European Youth Heart Study)

BACKGROUND Atherosclerosis develops from early childhood; physical activity could positively affect this process. This studys aim was to assess the associations of objectively measured physical activity with clustering of cardiovascular disease risk factors in children and derive guidelines on the basis of this analysis. METHODS We did a cross-sectional study of 1732 randomly selected 9-year-old and 15-year-old school children from Denmark, Estonia, and Portugal. Risk factors included in the composite risk factor score (mean of Z scores) were systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, total cholesterol/HDL ratio, insulin resistance, sum of four skinfolds, and aerobic fitness. Individuals with a risk score above 1 SD of the composite variable were defined as being at risk. Physical activity was assessed by accelerometry. FINDINGS Odds ratios for having clustered risk for ascending quintiles of physical activity (counts per min; cpm) were 3.29 (95% CI 1.96-5.52), 3.13 (1.87-5.25), 2.51 (1.47-4.26), and 2.03 (1.18-3.50), respectively, compared with the most active quintile. The first to the third quintile of physical activity had a raised risk in all analyses. The mean time spent above 2000 cpm in the fourth quintile was 116 min per day in 9-year-old and 88 min per day in 15-year-old children. INTERPRETATION Physical activity levels should be higher than the current international guidelines of at least 1 h per day of physical activity of at least moderate intensity to prevent clustering of cardiovascular disease risk factors.

TV viewing and physical activity are independently associated with metabolic risk in children: the European Youth Heart Study.

Background TV viewing has been linked to metabolic-risk factors in youth. However, it is unclear whether this association is independent of physical activity (PA) and obesity. Methods and Findings We did a population-based, cross-sectional study in 9- to 10-y-old and 15- to 16-y-old boys and girls from three regions in Europe (n = 1,921). We examined the independent associations between TV viewing, PA measured by accelerometry, and metabolic-risk factors (body fatness, blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, inverted high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, glucose, and insulin levels). Clustered metabolic risk was expressed as a continuously distributed score calculated as the average of the standardized values of the six subcomponents. There was a positive association between TV viewing and adiposity (p = 0.021). However, after adjustment for PA, gender, age group, study location, sexual maturity, smoking status, birth weight, and parental socio-economic status, the association of TV viewing with clustered metabolic risk was no longer significant (p = 0.053). PA was independently and inversely associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin (all p < 0.01), and triglycerides (p = 0.02). PA was also significantly and inversely associated with the clustered risk score (p < 0.0001), independently of obesity and other confounding factors. Conclusions TV viewing and PA may be separate entities and differently associated with adiposity and metabolic risk. The association between TV viewing and clustered metabolic risk is mediated by adiposity, whereas PA is associated with individual and clustered metabolic-risk indicators independently of obesity. Thus, preventive action against metabolic risk in children may need to target TV viewing and PA separately.

Does physical activity attenuate, or even eliminate, the detrimental association of sitting time with mortality? A harmonised meta-analysis of data from more than 1 million men and women

BACKGROUND High amounts of sedentary behaviour have been associated with increased risks of several chronic conditions and mortality. However, it is unclear whether physical activity attenuates or even eliminates the detrimental effects of prolonged sitting. We examined the associations of sedentary behaviour and physical activity with all-cause mortality. METHODS We did a systematic review, searching six databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Web of Science, Sport Discus, and Scopus) from database inception until October, 2015, for prospective cohort studies that had individual level exposure and outcome data, provided data on both daily sitting or TV-viewing time and physical activity, and reported effect estimates for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, or breast, colon, and colorectal cancer mortality. We included data from 16 studies, of which 14 were identified through a systematic review and two were additional unpublished studies where pertinent data were available. All study data were analysed according to a harmonised protocol, which categorised reported daily sitting time and TV-viewing time into four standardised groups each, and physical activity into quartiles (in metabolic equivalent of task [MET]-hours per week). We then combined data across all studies to analyse the association of daily sitting time and physical activity with all-cause mortality, and estimated summary hazard ratios using Cox regression. We repeated these analyses using TV-viewing time instead of daily sitting time. FINDINGS Of the 16 studies included in the meta-analysis, 13 studies provided data on sitting time and all-cause mortality. These studies included 1 005 791 individuals who were followed up for 2-18·1 years, during which 84 609 (8·4%) died. Compared with the referent group (ie, those sitting <4 h/day and in the most active quartile [>35·5 MET-h per week]), mortality rates during follow-up were 12-59% higher in the two lowest quartiles of physical activity (from HR=1·12, 95% CI 1·08-1·16, for the second lowest quartile of physical activity [<16 MET-h per week] and sitting <4 h/day; to HR=1·59, 1·52-1·66, for the lowest quartile of physical activity [<2·5 MET-h per week] and sitting >8 h/day). Daily sitting time was not associated with increased all-cause mortality in those in the most active quartile of physical activity. Compared with the referent (<4 h of sitting per day and highest quartile of physical activity [>35·5 MET-h per week]), there was no increased risk of mortality during follow-up in those who sat for more than 8 h/day but who also reported >35·5 MET-h per week of activity (HR=1·04; 95% CI 0·99-1·10). By contrast, those who sat the least (<4 h/day) and were in the lowest activity quartile (<2·5 MET-h per week) had a significantly increased risk of dying during follow-up (HR=1·27, 95% CI 1·22-1·31). Six studies had data on TV-viewing time (N=465 450; 43 740 deaths). Watching TV for 3 h or more per day was associated with increased mortality regardless of physical activity, except in the most active quartile, where mortality was significantly increased only in people who watched TV for 5 h/day or more (HR=1·16, 1·05-1·28). INTERPRETATION High levels of moderate intensity physical activity (ie, about 60-75 min per day) seem to eliminate the increased risk of death associated with high sitting time. However, this high activity level attenuates, but does not eliminate the increased risk associated with high TV-viewing time. These results provide further evidence on the benefits of physical activity, particularly in societies where increasing numbers of people have to sit for long hours for work and may also inform future public health recommendations. FUNDING None.

Physical activity and obesity prevention : a review of the current evidence

Ecological data on temporal trends suggest that the rising prevalence of obesity is, at least in part, attributable to declining population energy expenditure. However, population-level data on trends in physical activity are scarce. In longitudinal cohort studies individuals who report higher levels of leisure-time physical activity tend to be less likely to gain weight, but studies vary in their conclusions because of issues of confounding, reverse causality and measurement error. The majority of studies suggest that low levels of activity are only weakly associated with future weight gain. Questions about dose-response can only be properly addressed by studies including objective measures of activity with known measurement error. The observational studies leave uncertainties about the direction of causality, as individuals who are overweight are less likely to stay active. Adjustment for confounding can diminish the impact of known confounders, but only randomisation can deal with issues of unmeasured confounding. Although there are a large number of clinical trials on the treatment of individuals with obesity or the prevention of weight regain among weight losers, the updated review of trials to prevent weight gain de novo only reveals six trials published since 2000 in adults and eleven in children. Not only are these trials relatively few in number but, for various methodological reasons, they are uncertain in their conclusions about whether increasing activity will be effective in preventing obesity. Whilst efforts should continue to enhance the evidence base it is wise, in the meantime, to stick to the consensus public health advice of advocating 45-60 min moderate intensity activity daily to prevent obesity.

A systematic review of reliability and objective criterion-related validity of physical activity questionnaires

Physical inactivity is one of the four leading risk factors for global mortality. Accurate measurement of physical activity (PA) and in particular by physical activity questionnaires (PAQs) remains a challenge. The aim of this paper is to provide an updated systematic review of the reliability and validity characteristics of existing and more recently developed PAQs and to quantitatively compare the performance between existing and newly developed PAQs.A literature search of electronic databases was performed for studies assessing reliability and validity data of PAQs using an objective criterion measurement of PA between January 1997 and December 2011. Articles meeting the inclusion criteria were screened and data were extracted to provide a systematic overview of measurement properties. Due to differences in reported outcomes and criterion methods a quantitative meta-analysis was not possible.In total, 31 studies testing 34 newly developed PAQs, and 65 studies examining 96 existing PAQs were included. Very few PAQs showed good results on both reliability and validity. Median reliability correlation coefficients were 0.62–0.71 for existing, and 0.74–0.76 for new PAQs. Median validity coefficients ranged from 0.30–0.39 for existing, and from 0.25–0.41 for new PAQs.Although the majority of PAQs appear to have acceptable reliability, the validity is moderate at best. Newly developed PAQs do not appear to perform substantially better than existing PAQs in terms of reliability and validity. Future PAQ studies should include measures of absolute validity and the error structure of the instrument.

Genetic variation in LIN28B is associated with the timing of puberty

The timing of puberty is highly variable. We carried out a genome-wide association study for age at menarche in 4,714 women and report an association in LIN28B on chromosome 6 (rs314276, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.33, P = 1.5 × 10−8). In independent replication studies in 16,373 women, each major allele was associated with 0.12 years earlier menarche (95% CI = 0.08–0.16; P = 2.8 × 10−10; combined P = 3.6 × 10−16). This allele was also associated with earlier breast development in girls (P = 0.001; N = 4,271); earlier voice breaking (P = 0.006, N = 1,026) and more advanced pubic hair development in boys (P = 0.01; N = 4,588); a faster tempo of height growth in girls (P = 0.00008; N = 4,271) and boys (P = 0.03; N = 4,588); and shorter adult height in women (P = 3.6 × 10−7; N = 17,274) and men (P = 0.006; N = 9,840) in keeping with earlier growth cessation. These studies identify variation in LIN28B, a potent and specific regulator of microRNA processing, as the first genetic determinant regulating the timing of human pubertal growth and development.

Comparisons of leisure-time physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness as predictors of all-cause mortality in men and women

Objective To examine the combined associations and relative contributions of leisure-time physical activity (PA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with all-cause mortality. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Aerobics centre longitudinal study. Participants 31 818 men and 10 555 women who received a medical examination during 1978–2002. Assessment of risk factors Leisure-time PA assessed by self-reported questionnaire; CRF assessed by maximal treadmill test. Main outcome measures All-cause mortality until 31 December 2003. Results There were 1492 (469 per 10 000) and 230 (218 per 10 000) deaths in men and women, respectively. PA and CRF were positively correlated in men (r=0.49) and women (r=0.47) controlling for age (p<0.001 for both). PA was inversely associated with mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis among men, but the association was eliminated after further adjustment for CRF. No significant association of PA with mortality was observed in women. CRF was inversely associated with mortality in men and women, and the associations remained significant after further adjustment for PA. In the PA and CRF combined analysis, compared with the reference group “not meeting the recommended PA (<500 metabolic equivalent-minute/week) and unfit”, the relative risks (95% CIs) of mortality were 0.62 (0.54 to 0.72) and 0.61 (0.44 to 0.86) in men and women “not meeting the recommended PA and fit”, 0.96 (0.61 to 1.53) and 0.93 (0.33 to 2.58) in men and women “meeting the recommended PA and unfit” and 0.60 (0.51 to 0.70) and 0.56 (0.37 to 0.85) in men and women “meeting the recommended PA and fit”, respectively. Conclusions CRF was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality than PA; therefore, improving CRF should be encouraged in unfit individuals to reduce risk of mortality and considered in the development of future PA guidelines.

Television viewing time independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the EPIC Norfolk Study

BACKGROUND Television viewing (TV), a highly prevalent behaviour, is associated with higher cardiovascular risk independently of physical activity. The relationship with mortality, however, is relatively unknown. METHODS We examined the prospective relationship between TV time and all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality in a population-based cohort [The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), Norfolk] of 13 197 men and women {age [SD (standard deviation)]: 61.5 ± 9.0 years}. Participants were free from stroke, myocardial infarction and cancer at baseline in 1998-2000 and were followed up for death ascertainment until 2009 (9.5 ± 1.6 years). TV time, total physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE), education level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering medication use, participant and family history of disease and total energy intake were self-reported; height and weight were measured by standardized procedures. Hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for mortality were estimated per 1-h/day increase in TV. RESULTS Each 1-h/day increase in TV time was associated with increased hazard of all-cause (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.09; 1270 deaths) and cardiovascular (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.15; 373 deaths), but not cancer mortality (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.98-1.10; 570 deaths). This was independent of gender, age, education, smoking, alcohol, medication, diabetes history, family history of cardiovascular disease and cancer, body mass index (BMI) and PAEE. They were similar when stratified by gender, age, education, BMI and PAEE. The population-attributable fraction for all-cause mortality comparing the highest TV tertile (>3.6 h/day) with the lowest (<2.5 h/day) was 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that public health recommendations should consider advising a reduction in TV time, a predominant leisure activity in modern society, in addition to advocating physical activity.

Cohort Profile: Updating the cohort profile for the MRC National Survey of Health and Development: a new clinic-based data collection for ageing research

MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK, Clinical Radiology, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester, UK, Vascular Physiology Unit, Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK, MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge, UK, Cardiovacular Institute, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden, Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility Manchester, Manchester, UK, International Centre for Circulatory Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK, Institute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK, Department of Echocardiography, The Heart Hospital, London, UK and MRC Human Nutrition Research, Cambridge, UK