Physics

Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β -decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β -decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ??0 meV after 1 year (90 % credibility). Neutrino masses >500 meV could be measured within ?? meV. Using only β -decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β -decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.

The advent of fabrication techniques such as additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other microstructural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an enhanced design methodology that incorporates inherent material variability to provide robust predictions of performance. In this work, we develop plasticity models capable of representing the distribution of mechanical responses observed in experiments using traditional plasticity models of the mean response and recently developed uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. We demonstrate that the new method provides predictive realizations that are superior to more traditional ones, and how these UQ techniques can be used in model selection and assessing the quality of calibrated physical parameters.

We present a Bayesian approach to probabilistically infer vertical activity profiles within a radioactive waste drum from segmented gamma scanning (SGS) measurements. Our approach resorts to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling using the state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) technique and accounts for two important sources of uncertainty: the measurement uncertainty and the uncertainty in the source distribution within the drum. In addition, our efficiency model simulates the contributions of all considered segments to each count measurement. Our approach is first demonstrated with a synthetic example, after which it is used to resolve the vertical activity distribution of 5 nuclides in a real waste package.

Ever since Nikuradse's experiments on turbulent friction in 1933, there have been theoretical attempts to describe his measurements by collapsing the data into single-variable functions. However, this approach, which is common in other areas of physics and in other fields, is limited by the lack of rigorous quantitative methods to compare alternative data collapses. Here, we address this limitation by using an unsupervised method to find analytic functions that optimally describe each of the data collapses for the Nikuradse dataset. By descaling these analytic functions, we show that a low dispersion of the scaled data does not guarantee that a data collapse is a good description of the original data. In fact, we find that, out of all the proposed data collapses, the original one proposed by Prandtl and Nikuradse over 80 years ago provides the best description of the data so far, and that it also agrees well with recent experimental data, provided that some model parameters are allowed to vary across experiments.

We implement Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for the case of fractional Brownian motion with measurement noise and a constant drift. The approach is tested on artificial trajectories and shown to make estimates that match well with the underlying true parameters, while for model selection the approach has a preference for simple models when the trajectories are finite. The approach is applied to observed trajectories of vesicles diffusing in Chinese hamster ovary cells. Here it is supplemented with a goodness-of-fit test, which is able to reveal statistical discrepancies between the observed trajectories and model predictions.

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the model, the model error as well as the statistics of the model error. This method relies on the usage of many data sets in a simultaneous analysis in order to overcome the problems caused by the degeneracy between model parameters and model error. Errors in the modeling of the measurement instrument can be absorbed in the model error allowing for applications with complex instruments.

Bayesian inference is a widely used and powerful analytical technique in fields such as astronomy and particle physics but has historically been underutilized in some other disciplines including semiconductor devices. In this work, we introduce Bayesim, a Python package that utilizes adaptive grid sampling to efficiently generate a probability distribution over multiple input parameters to a forward model using a collection of experimental measurements. We discuss the implementation choices made in the code, showcase two examples in photovoltaics, and discuss general prerequisites for the approach to apply to other systems.

We present a new statistical test that examines the consistency of the tails of two empirical distributions at multiple thresholds. Such distributions are often encountered in counting experiments, in physics and elsewhere, where the significance of populations of events is evaluated. This multi-threshold approach has the effect of "stacking" multiple events into the tail bin of the distribution, and thus we call it the Event Stacking Test. This test has the ability to confidently detect inconsistencies composed of multiple events, even if these events are low-significance outliers in isolation. We derive the Event Stacking Test from first principles and show that the p-value it reports is a well-calibrated representation of noise fluctuations. When applying this test to the detection of gravitational-wave transients in LIGO-Virgo data, we find that it performs better than or comparably to other statistical tests historically used within the gravitational-wave community. This test is particularly well-suited for detecting classes of gravitational-wave transients that are minimally-modeled, i.e., gravitational-wave bursts. We show that the Event Stacking Test allows us to set upper limits on the astrophysical rate-density of gravitational-wave bursts that are stricter than those set using other statistical tests by factors of up to 2 - 3.

Intuitively, a scientist might assume that a more complex regression model will necessarily yield a better predictive model of experimental data. Herein, we disprove this notion in the context of extracting the proton charge radius from charge form factor data. Using a Monte Carlo study, we show that a simpler regression model can in certain cases be the better predictive model. This is especially true with noisy data where the complex model will fit the noise instead of the physical signal. Thus, in order to select the appropriate regression model to employ, a clear technique should be used such as the Akaike information criterion or Bayesian information criterion, and ideally selected previous to seeing the results. Also, to ensure a reasonable fit, the scientist should also make regression quality plots, such as residual plots, and not just rely on a single criterion such as reduced chi2. When we apply these techniques to low four-momentum transfer cross section data, we find a proton radius that is consistent with the muonic Lamb shift results. While presented for the case of proton radius extraction, these concepts are applicable in general and can be used to illustrate the necessity of balancing bias and variance when building a regression model and validating results, ideas that are at the heart of modern machine learning algorithms.