Quantitative Finance

Long maturity options or a wide class of hybrid products are evaluated using a local volatility type modelling for the asset price S(t) with a stochastic interest rate r(t). The calibration of the local volatility function is usually time-consuming because of the multi-dimensional nature of the problem. In this paper, we develop a calibration technique based on a partial differential equation (PDE) approach which allows an efficient implementation. The essential idea is based on solving the derived forward equation satisfied by P(t; S; r)Z(t; S; r), where P(t; S; r) represents the risk neutral probability density of (S(t); r(t)) and Z(t; S; r) the projection of the stochastic discounting factor in the state variables (S(t); r(t)). The solution provides effective and sufficient information for the calibration and pricing. The PDE solver is constructed by using ADI (Alternative Direction Implicit) method based on an extension of the Peaceman-Rachford scheme. Furthermore, an efficient algorithm to compute all the corrective terms in the local volatility function due to the stochastic interest rates is proposed by using the PDE solutions and grid points. Different numerical experiments are examined and compared to demonstrate the results of our theoretical analysis.

In this paper, we study a semi-martingale optimal transport problem and its application to the calibration of Local-Stochastic Volatility (LSV) models. Rather than considering the classical constraints on marginal distributions at initial and final time, we optimise our cost function given the prices of a finite number of European options. We formulate the problem as a convex optimisation problem, for which we provide a PDE formulation along with its dual counterpart. Then we solve numerically the dual problem, which involves a fully non-linear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The method is tested by calibrating a Heston-like LSV model with simulated data and foreign exchange market data.

We propose a generic calibration framework to both vanilla and no-touch options for a large class of continuous semi-martingale models. The method builds upon the forward partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) derived in Hambly et al. (2016), which allows fast computation of up-and-out call prices for the complete set of strikes, barriers and maturities. It also utilises a novel two-states particle method to estimate the Markovian projection of the variance onto the spot and running maximum. We detail a step-by-step procedure for a Heston-type local-stochastic volatility model with local vol-of-vol, as well as two path-dependent volatility models where the local volatility component depends on the running maximum. In numerical tests, we benchmark these new models against standard models for a set of EURUSD market data, all three models are seen to calibrate well within the market no-touch bid--ask.

We construct a continuous time model for price-mediated contagion precipitated by a common exogenous stress to the banking book of all firms in the financial system. In this setting, firms are constrained so as to satisfy a risk-weight based capital ratio requirement. We use this model to find analytical bounds on the risk-weights for assets as a function of the market liquidity. Under these appropriate risk-weights, we find existence and uniqueness for the joint system of firm behavior and the asset prices. We further consider an analytical bound on the firm liquidations, which allows us to construct exact formulas for stress testing the financial system with deterministic or random stresses. Numerical case studies are provided to demonstrate various implications of this model and analytical bounds.

We call an investment strategy survival, if an agent who uses it maintains a non-vanishing share of market wealth over the infinite time horizon. In a discrete-time multi-agent model with endogenous asset prices determined through a short-run equilibrium of supply and demand, we show that a survival strategy can be constructed as follows: an agent should assume that only their actions determine the prices and use a growth optimal (log-optimal) strategy with respect to these prices, disregarding the actual prices. Then any survival strategy turns out to be close to this strategy asymptotically. The main results are obtained under the assumption that the assets are short-lived.

In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into account no-arbitrage constraints and fit the model to power option settlement prices of the European Energy Exchange (EEX). We show that our model is able to reproduce the different levels and shapes of the implied volatility (IV) profiles displayed by options with a variety of delivery periods.

It is generally understood that a given one-dimensional diffusion may be transformed by Cameron-Martin-Girsanov measure change into another one-dimensional diffusion with the same volatility but a different drift. But to achieve this we have to know that the change-of-measure local martingale that we write down is a true martingale; we provide a complete characterization of when this happens. This is then used to discuss absence of arbitrage in a generalized Heston model including the case where the Feller condition for the volatility process is violated.

As the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) has implemented a new regulation on short-sellings, short-sellers are required to repurchase stocks once the clearing risk rises to a certain level. Avellaneda and Lipkin proposed a fully coupled SDE system to describe the mechanism which is referred as Hard-To-Borrow(HTB) models. Guiyuan Ma obtained the PDE system for both American and European options. There is a technical error in Guiyuan Ma where two correlated Brownian motion should be converted before change of measure. In this paper, I will provide supplement conditions.

This paper introduces new methods for analysing the extreme and erratic behaviour of time series to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency market dynamics. Across 51 cryptocurrencies, we examine extreme behaviour through a study of distribution extremities, and erratic behaviour through structural breaks. First, we analyse the structure of the market as a whole and observe a reduction in self-similarity as a result of COVID-19, particularly with respect to structural breaks in variance. Second, we compare and contrast these two behaviours, and identify individual anomalous cryptocurrencies. Tether (USDT) and TrueUSD (TUSD) are consistent outliers with respect to their returns, while Holo (HOT), NEXO (NEXO), Maker (MKR) and NEM (XEM) are frequently observed as anomalous with respect to both behaviours and time. Even among a market known as consistently volatile, this identifies individual cryptocurrencies that behave most irregularly in their extreme and erratic behaviour and shows these were more affected during the COVID-19 market crisis.

The CEV model subsumes some of the previous option pricing models. An important parameter in the model is the parameter b, the elasticity of volatility. For b=0, b=-1/2, and b=-1 the CEV model reduces respectively to the BSM model, the square-root model of Cox and Ross, and the Bachelier model. Both in the case of the BSM model and in the case of the CEV model it has become traditional to begin a discussion of option pricing by starting with the vanilla European calls and puts. In the case of BSM model simpler solutions are the log and power solutions. These contracts, despite the simplicity of their mathematical description, are attracting increasing attention as a trading instrument. Similar simple solutions have not been studied so far in a systematic fashion for the CEV model. We use Kovacic's algorithm to derive, for all half-integer values of b, all solutions "in quadratures" of the CEV ordinary differential equation. These solutions give rise, by separation of variables, to simple solutions to the CEV partial differential equation. In particular, when b=...,-5/2,-2,-3/2,-1, 1, 3/2, 2, 5/2,..., we obtain four classes of denumerably infinite elementary function solutions, when b=-1/2 and b=1/2 we obtain two classes of denumerably infinite elementary function solutions, whereas, when b=0 we find two elementary function solutions. In the derived solutions we have also dispensed with the unnecessary assumption made in the the BSM model asserting that the underlying asset pays no dividends during the life of the option.