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The unexpected results of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections: Why didn't the red wave come?
On November 8, 2022, the United States held a mid-term election. This mid-term election was held during the administration of current President Joe Biden. The election involves competition for all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 Senate seats to determine the 118th U.S. Congress. At the same time, it also includes gubernatorial elections in 39 states and regions and multiple state and local elections. However, the results of this election were greatly unexpected. The "red wave" predicted by many did not come as expected.
While Republicans managed to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats gained ground in the Senate. They scored victories in key battleground states where voters showed clear rejection of Republican candidates backed by Trump. The situation is historically rare and highlights the unconventional pattern of midterm elections.
This is the first time since 1934 that the president's party has not lost any state legislatures or sitting senators in a midterm election.
The success factors of that year’s election included voters’ attention to many social issues. In particular, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, voters’ anxiety about abortion rights increased significantly. According to some sources, support for Democratic candidates, especially among female voters, is growing. As a result, proposals to maintain or expand abortion rights have been successfully passed in referendums in some states.
In addition, issues such as the economy, crime, gun violence, democratic institutions and education have also become the focus of voters' attention. Republicans blame the policies of Biden and the Democratic Party for the current high consumer prices, fuel prices and interest rates. However, the Democratic Party refutes the accusations and believes that these problems are related to global inflation after the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to one survey, 82% of Americans believe inflation is an "extremely important or very important issue" for the government to address.
As the election approaches, most voters view inflation as a key issue, leading to a decline in support for Biden. However, the Democratic Party's success in some key states also benefited from voters' concerns about the future of the democratic system and general distrust of Trump's election. All this reflects that despite the difficult economy, voters' resistance to extreme politicians remains strong.
In this context, many candidates supported by Trump performed poorly in the election, which is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party was able to hold the Senate seats. The quality of candidates became a decisive factor in elections, and many Republican candidates were embroiled in scandals during their campaigns, preventing them from competing effectively.
Candidate quality plays an important role in elections, especially in Senate races.
The turnout rate of young voters has also increased significantly, becoming a strong support for the Democratic Party. So while Democrats lost in the House, they scored meaningful victories in the Senate and in multiple state elections, changing many people's expectations for a red wave.
After the election, we can see the social dynamics reflected behind the election. Many issues, whether abortion rights, economic crisis, or political extremism, have re-engaged in profound social dialogue. In future elections, these issues are likely to come into focus again, and voters' pursuits and expectations will become more complex. So, how will the political environment evolve in the future? Will there be new challenges and changes?
