A. Agüero

Issues and practices in the use of effects data from FREDERICA in the ERICA Integrated Approach

The ERICA Integrated Approach requires that a risk assessment screening dose rate is defined for the risk characterisation within Tiers 1 and 2. At Tier 3, no numerical screening dose rate is used, and the risk characterisation is driven by methods that can evaluate the possible effects of ionising radiation on reproduction, mortality and morbidity. Species sensitivity distribution has been used to derive the ERICA risk assessment predicted no-effect dose rate (PNEDR). The method used was based on the mathematical processing of data from FRED (FASSET radiation effects database merged with the EPIC database to form FREDERICA) and resulted in a PNEDR of 10 microGy/h. This rate was assumed to ascribe sufficient protection of all ecosystems from detrimental effects on structure and function under chronic exposure. The value was weighed against a number of points of comparison: (i) PNEDR values obtained by application of the safety factor method, (ii) background levels, (iii) dose rates triggering effects on radioactively contaminated sites and (iv) former guidelines from literature reviews. In Tier 3, the effects analysis must be driven by the problem formulation and is thus highly case specific. Instead of specific recommendations on numeric values, guidance on the sorts of methods that may be applied for refined effect analysis is provided and illustrated.

Study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation

Uncertainty in estimations of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation may arise from a number of sources including values of the model parameters, empirical data, measurement errors and biases in the sampling. The significance of the overall uncertainty of an exposure assessment will depend on how the estimated dose compares with reference doses used for risk characterisation. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota using some of the models and parameters recommended in the FASSET methodology. The study was carried out for semi-natural terrestrial, agricultural and marine ecosystems, and for four radionuclides (137Cs, 239Pu, 129I and 237Np). The parameters of the radionuclide transfer models showed the highest sensitivity and contributed the most to the uncertainty in the predictions of doses to biota. The most important ones were related to the bioavailability and mobility of radionuclides in the environment, for example soil-to-plant transfer factors, the bioaccumulation factors for marine biota and the gut uptake fraction for terrestrial mammals. In contrast, the dose conversion coefficients showed low sensitivity and contributed little to the overall uncertainty. Radiobiological effectiveness contributed to the overall uncertainty of the dose estimations for alpha emitters although to a lesser degree than a number of transfer model parameters.

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties.

Performance assessment studies of models for water flow and radionuclide transport in vegetated soils using lysimeter data

Increasingly the burial of nuclear waste in deep underground repositories is being regarded as a safe long-term solution for disposal. However, to support this safety assessment models of the associated risks are required. An important component of these models is the upward migration of radionuclides from a contaminated water table into arable and pasture crops. A five-year experiment to investigate the processes which control these transfers has been undertaken at Imperial College. Selected data from this experiment were made available to participants of the BIOMOVS II programme in order to allow them to perform blind hydrological and radionuclide transport simulations. The results show the importance of correctly characterising the soil hydrology and indicate that model conceptualisations derived from surface contamination studies may not adequately capture the various processes which influence the upward movement of radionuclides in the vadose zone. These include not only the water movement, but also chemical and biological processes. Finally, the difficulty and importance of a priori parameter selection is highlighted.