A. Amengual

A Hydrometeorological Modeling Study of a Flash-Flood Event over Catalonia, Spain

Abstract During the early morning of 10 June 2000, the Catalonia region was affected by a hazardous convective rainfall episode that produced a large increase on flow regimes in many internal catchments of the region. The present modeling study is focused upon the Llobregat basin, the biggest internal catchment with a drainage area of 5040 km2. The first objective of the study is the characterization of the watershed hydrological response to this flash-flood event based on rain gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) runoff model. The HEC-HMS model has been calibrated using five episodes of similar torrential characteristics, and the effects of the spatial segmentation of the basin and of the temporal scale of the input rainfall field have been examined. These kinds of episodes present short recurrence intervals in Mediterranean Spain, and the use of mesoscale forecast driven runoff simulation systems for increasing the lead times of the emergency manageme...

A Statistical Adjustment of Regional Climate Model Outputs to Local Scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain

AbstractProjections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid- and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile–quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall ...

Present and future climate resources for various types of tourism in the Bay of Palma, Spain

The Bay of Palma, in Mallorca, is a leading region for beach holidays in Europe. It is based on a mass tourism model strongly modulated by seasonality and with high environmental costs. Main tourism stakeholders are currently implementing complementary activities to mitigate seasonality, regardless of climate change. But climate is—and will remain—a key resource or even a limitation for many types of tourism. Assessing the present conditions and exploring the future evolution of climate potential for these activities have become a priority in this area. To this end, the climate index for tourism (CIT)—originally designed to rate the climate resource of beach tourism—is adapted to specifically appraise cycling, cultural tourism, football, golf, motor boating, sailing and hiking. Climate resources are derived by using observed and projected daily meteorological data. Projections have been obtained from a suite of Regional Climate Models run under the A1B emissions scenario. To properly derive CITs at such local scale, we apply a statistical adjustment. Present climate potentials ratify the appropriateness of the Bay of Palma for satisfactorily practicing all the examined activities. However, optimal conditions are projected to degrade during the peak visitation period while improving in spring and autumn. That is, climate change could further exacerbate the present imbalance between the seasonal distributions of ideal climate potentials and high attendance levels. With this information at hand, policy makers and regional tourism stakeholders can respond more effectively to the great challenge of local adaptation to climate change.

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

AbstractOn 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H...