A. de Grip

The economics of skills obsolescence: A review

In this chapter we review the economic literature on the various causes of skills obsolescence and the ways in which skills obsolescence has been modelled or estimated. Most of the literature focuses on skills obsolescence due to atrophy and worker displacements. Skills obsolescence may, however, also be due to the wear of skills, technological and organizational developments, shifts in the structure of employment and organizational forgetting. In the second part of the chapter, we discuss measures for skills obsolescence. Skills obsolescence measures are related to both the cause of skills obsolescence and the way in which it manifests itself.

The effects of training and overeducation on career mobility in a segmented labour market

This paper analyses the effects of both training and overeducation on upward mobility in the internal labour market, the professional market and the “supplementary labour market”. The latter segment can be considered as a broadly defined secondary labour market as it is not restricted to the low‐level unskilled jobs only. This broader definition – also found in initial segmentation theory – allows for the changed character of the secondary labour market in the industrialized countries. As expected, “career training” influences upward mobility positively. However, contrary to the predictions of segmentation theory, particularly in the supplementary labour market career training is a means of gaining promotion to a higher level job. Overeducation also affects upward mobility positively, which indicates that overeducation is to some extent a temporary phenomenon at the individual level. However, this also holds in particular in the supplementary segment of the labour market. The estimation results show that the supplementary labour market is less of a dead end than the segmentation theory predicts and is a more valuable place to get training than has been recognized. The supplementary market probably plays an important role in the transition process between initial education and the labour market. Although workers may be initially overeducated in their first jobs, a supplementary segment job could be an attractive step towards reaching a more suitable position in the labour market.

Forecasting replacement demand by occupation and education

Abstract Replacement demand is an important component of the future demand for manpower often neglected in manpower demand forecasts. In particular, for characterizing the prospects for newcomers on the labour market, the manpower requirements method is not adequate as it merely focuses on employment mutations. This study builds a theoretical framework to measure the historical replacement demand distinguished by occupation and education. This framework is extended so that in addition to employment growth forecasts, forecasts can also be made of the future replacement demand for about 80 occupational classes and 50 educational groups, as we have done for the Netherlands for the period 1989–1994.

Cross-national differences in job quality among low-skilled young workers in Europe

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the extent to which the quality of the jobs of low‐skilled young workers is affected by the structure of education and training systems in various European countries. It focuses on the differences between countries providing fairly general education (internal labour market (ILM) contexts) and countries offering more specific vocational education (occupational labour market (OLM) contexts).Design/methodology/approach – Logistic regression analyses.Findings – It is found that low‐skilled young workers are worse off in OLM countries than in ILM ones, with respect to employment in a permanent job, employment in a non‐elementary job and participation in continuing vocational training. However, in OLM countries low‐skilled young workers are less often involuntary part‐time employed than those in ILM countries. With regard to participation in continuing vocational training, the ILM‐OLM contrast is larger in manufacturing than in services; regarding employment in ...

Defining Occupational Groupings by Educational Structure

In this study a cluster analysis is performed in order to define clusters of occupational groups according to their educational structure. The underlying assumption is that such groups with similar schooling profiles belong to the same labour-market segment and therefore offer opportunities for good forecasts of occupational manpower. Attention is paid to the optimal choice of a (dis)similarity criterion, the clustering method, and the clustering algorithms used for the problem at hand. In the analysis fourteen branches of study and four education levels are distinguished. This results in the formation of forty clusters, each characterized by combinations of branches and levels of education. It appears that this functional classification differs from the administrative International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) in several respects.

Training and retirement patterns

Life-cycle theory predicts that employers enter into implicit contracts with newly hired employees to ensure rent-sharing and to decrease turnover after firm-specific training investments. Typically, these implicit contracts would include both upward sloping earning profiles and mandatory retirement. In this article, we empirically test the prediction that workers with firm-specific skills are restrained in their options to continue working. Therefore, they are more likely to retire at common mandatory retirement dates than those with general skills. Using the US National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men, we find that workers who participated in firm-specific training in their early careers do indeed retire earlier than those with general skills. The results show that compulsory retirement plans force these older workers to retire when they reach the common mandatory retirement age of 65. The results presented in this article are highly relevant for public policies in European and other industrialized countries that aim to increase labour force participation of the elderly. As our study demonstrates, the effectiveness of institutional arrangements to postpone retirement will also depend on training policies of employers and the type of skills workers acquired in the past.

The ageing shift worker: A prospective cohort study on need for recovery, disability and retirement intentions

OBJECTIVES This study investigates whether different shift work schedules, compared to day work, are associated with need for recovery (NFR), future disability, and retirement intentions for employees employed within different economic sectors over the course of their careers. Shift work exposure duration and the healthy worker effect are also examined. METHODS Data from the prospective Maastricht Cohort Study was used. Subsamples of industry (N=1877, all men) and healthcare (N=818, 624 women and 194 men) workers were separately investigated. GEE and Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate NFR longitudinally. Future disability was investigated using Cox regression, and retirement intentions were investigated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS Three-shift industry workers were at risk of becoming a case of elevated NFR during follow-up, compared to industry day workers. Three- and five-shift industry workers were at risk for future disability. In healthcare, irregular shift work was a risk factor for disability among older shift workers. No significant results were found regarding retirement intentions. Findings were probably an underestimation as exposure duration to shift work and the healthy worker effect affected the results. CONCLUSIONS Shift work was associated with higher levels of NFR and a higher risk of disability. However, shift work is a multifaceted concept as different types of shift work schedules are differently associated with these outcomes. Different shift work types exist and shift work schedules allow for optimization, indicating that measures to prevent adverse outcomes should be tailored for different types of shift work and over the course of the work career.

Causes of labour supply and demand mismatches in the Dutch building trades

SummaryIn this paper the significance of some hypotheses on possible causes of labour supply and demand mismatches is tested on data of the Dutch building trades by means of a UV analysis. In contrast with most other UV research this study does not refer to a search-theoretical framework, but focuses on skill differences between labour supply and demand. Three significant causes of labour market frictions appear to be: the development of the skill composition of labour demand, the apprenticeship possibilities and the relatively high wages of older workers. Some other hypotheses show weakly significant results: bumping-down processes, reschooling of unemployed older workers and the development of secondary labour market segments.

Achter de feiten aan leren. Helpt scholing oudere werknemers te herstellen van kennistekorten

Organisatorische en technologische veranderingen volgen elkaar steeds sneller op. Werknemers zien zichzelf daardoor in toenemende mate geconfronteerd met tekorten aan kennis. Niet alleen de inzetbaarheid van werknemers, maar ook de concurrentiekracht en innovativiteit van bedrijven en instellingen staan daarmee onder druk. Het herstellen of zelfs voorkomen van kennistekorten is daarom een belangrijke uitdaging voor zowel werkgever als werknemer, zeker in zeer instabiele organisaties. Dat geldt mogelijk in versterkte mate voor de kwetsbare groep van laagopgeleide oudere werknemers. Dit artikel laat aan de hand van data, afkomstig van ruim 7.000 oudere werknemers (45-64 jaar) die deelnamen aan het longitudinale STREAM-onderzoek, zien dat alleen deelname aan substantiele leeractiviteiten bijdraagt aan het herstel van een kennistekort. Instructies op de werkplek en korte trainingen doen dat niet. Dat geldt voor zowel laagopgeleide oudere werknemers als voor middelbaar en hoger opgeleide oudere werknemers en dat geldt voor zowel oudere werknemers in stabiele organisaties als voor oudere werknemers in instabiele organisaties.