A. Felpeto

Assessment and Modelling of Lava Flow Hazard on Lanzarote (Canary Islands)

This paper presents an evaluation of the lava flowhazard on Lanzarote (Canary Islands) by means of aprobabilistic maximum slope model. This model assumesthat the topography plays the major role indetermining the path that a lava flow will follow. Thearea selected for containing future emission centreshas been chosen taking into account thecharacteristics of the recent eruptive activity andthe present activity of the island. The results of thesimulations constitute hazard maps whose values ateach point represent the probability of being coveredby lava. These results are qualitatively analysed toprovide some indication of the risk to the lifelines(electricity, drinking water etc.) of the island.

Zonation of the main volcanic hazards (lava flows and ash fall) in Tenerife, Canary Islands. A proposal for a surveillance network

The island of Tenerife is volcanically complex, and its eruptive history predominantly reflects the processes and products of two different eruptive styles: (1) non-explosive effusions of basaltic lavas from fissure vents mostly aligned along two ridges; and (2) less frequent but explosive salic eruptions from central vents associated with the Las Canadas volcanic edifice and associated summit caldera. We have taken into account this fundamental distinction to develop a volcanic-hazards zonation (for lava flows and ash fall only) that includes: definition of the principal hazards; identification of the areas that have higher probability of containing emission centres; and numerical modelling of the vulnerable areas to be affected by volcanic hazards. Not only does the volcanic-hazards zonation map provide emergency-management officials with an updated assessment of the volcanic hazards, but it also represents a starting point for the preparation of a volcanic risk map for Tenerife. Finally, the hazards-zonation map also furnishes the basis for the design of a proposed volcano surveillance network.

Eruptive scenarios of phonolitic volcanism at Teide–Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

Recent studies on Teide–Pico Viejo (TPV) complex have revealed that explosive activity of phonolitic and basaltic magmas, including plinian and subplinian eruptions, and the generation of a wide range of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have also been significant. We perform a statistical analysis of the time series of past eruptions and the spatial extent of their erupted products, including lava flows, fallout and PDCs. We use an extreme value theory statistical method to calculate eruption recurrence. The analysis of past activity and extent of some well-identified deposits is used to calculate the eruption recurrence probabilities of various sizes and for different time periods. With this information, we compute several significant scenarios using the GIS-based VORIS 2 software (Felpeto et al., J Volcanol Geotherm Res 166:106–116, 2007) in order to evaluate the potential extent of the main eruption hazards that could be expected from TPV. The simulated hazard scenarios show that the southern flank of Tenerife is protected by Las Cañadas caldera wall against lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, but not against ash fallout. The Icod Valley, and to a minor extent also the La Orotava valley, is directly exposed to most of TPV hazards, in particular to the gravity driven flows. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at TPV with regard to previous studies, and the results obtained should be useful for intermediate and long-term land-use and emergency planning.

Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Between 2011 and 2014 there were at least seven episodes of magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island, but only the first one led to a submarine eruption in 2011-2012. In order to study the relationship between GPS deformation and seismicity during these episodes, we compare the temporal evolution of the deformation with the cumulative seismic energy released. In some of the episodes both deformation and seismicity evolve in a very similar way, but in others a time lag appears between them, in which the deformation precedes the seismicity. Furthermore, a linear correlation between decimal logarithm of intruded magma volume and decimal logarithm of total seismic energy released along the different episodes has been observed. Therefore, if a future magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island follows this behavior with a proper time lag, we could have an a priori estimate of the order of magnitude the seismic energy released would reach.