A Fry-Smith

Effectiveness and safety of nicotine replacement therapy assisted reduction to stop smoking: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To determine the effectiveness and safety of nicotine replacement therapy assisted reduction to stop smoking. Design Systematic review of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsychINFO, Science Citation Index, registries of ongoing trials, reference lists, the drug company that sponsored most of the trials, and clinical experts. Review methods Eligible studies were published or unpublished randomised controlled trials that enrolled smokers who declared no intention to quit smoking in the short term, and compared nicotine replacement therapy (with or without motivational support) with placebo, no treatment, other pharmacological therapy, or motivational support, and reported quit rates. Two reviewers independently applied eligibility criteria. One reviewer assessed study quality and extracted data and these processes were checked by a second reviewer. The primary outcome, six months sustained abstinence from smoking beginning during treatment, was assessed by individual patient data analysis. Other outcomes were cessation and reduction at end of follow-up, and adverse events. Data synthesis Seven placebo controlled randomised controlled trials were included (four used nicotine replacement therapy gum, two nicotine replacement therapy inhaler, and one free choice of therapy). They were reduction studies that reported smoking cessation as a secondary outcome. The trials enrolled a total of 2767 smokers, gave nicotine replacement therapy for 6-18 months, and lasted 12-26 months. 6.75% of smokers receiving nicotine replacement therapy attained sustained abstinence for six months, twice the rate of those receiving placebo (relative risk (fixed effects) 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.34 to 3.15; (random effects) 1.99, 1.01 to 3.91; five trials). The number needed to treat was 29. All other cessation and reduction outcomes were significantly more likely in smokers given nicotine replacement therapy than those given placebo. There were no statistically significant differences in adverse events (death, odds ratio 1.00, 95% confidence interval 0.25 to 4.02; serious adverse events, 1.16, 0.79 to 1.50; and discontinuation because of adverse events, 1.25, 0.64 to 2.51) except nausea, which was more common with nicotine replacement therapy (8.7% v 5.3%; odds ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.36). Conclusions Available trials indicate that nicotine replacement therapy is an effective intervention in achieving sustained smoking abstinence for smokers who have no intention or are unable to attempt an abrupt quit. Most of the evidence, however, comes from trials with regular behavioural support and monitoring and it is unclear whether using nicotine replacement therapy without regular contact would be as effective.

Adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, rituximab and abatacept for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis after the failure of a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an inflammatory condition that typically causes a symmetrical chronic arthritis. Timely use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) is an essential aspect of disease management, but many patients may not respond even when conventional agents are used optimally. OBJECTIVE To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adalimumab (ADA), etanercept (ETN), infliximab (IFX), rituximab (RTX) and abatacept (ABT) when used in patients with RA who have tried conventional agents and have failed to improve after trying a first tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor. DATA SOURCES A systematic review of primary studies was undertaken. Databases searched included the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid) and EMBASE up to July 2009. STUDY SELECTION Two reviewers assessed titles and abstracts of studies identified by the search strategy, obtained the full text of relevant papers and screened them against inclusion criteria. STUDY APPRAISAL Data from included studies were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. The quality of included studies was assessed independently by two reviewers, with any disagreements resolved by discussion and consultation with a third reviewer if necessary. RESULTS Thirty-five studies were included in the systematic review: five randomised controlled trials (RCTs), one comparative study, one controlled study and 28 uncontrolled studies. One RCT (REFLEX) demonstrated the effectiveness of RTX. At 6 months significantly more patients treated with RTX achieved American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 [relative risk (RR) = 2.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.08 to 3.91] and ACR70 (RR = 12.14, 95% CI 2.96 to 49.86) compared with those treated with the placebo. Differences between groups in favour of RTX were observed at 6 months for mean change from baseline in Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) (mean difference -1.50, 95% CI -1.74 to -1.26) and mean change from baseline in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score (mean difference -0.30, 95% CI -0.40 to -0.20). One RCT (ATTAIN) demonstrated the effectiveness of ABT. At 6 months significantly more patients treated with ABT achieved ACR20 (RR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.77 to 3.69) and ACR70 (RR = 6.70, 95% CI 1.62 to 27.80) compared with those treated with placebo. Significant differences between groups in favour of ABT were observed at 6 months for mean change from baseline in DAS28 score (mean difference -1.27, 95% CI -1.62 to -0.93) and mean change from baseline in HAQ score (mean difference -0.34). Twenty-eight uncontrolled studies observed improvement of effectiveness compared with before switching, in patients who switched to ADA, ETN or IFX after discontinued previous TNF inhibitor(s). Four studies were included in the systematic review of cost-effectiveness. Independent economic evaluation undertaken by the assessment group showed that compared with DMARDs, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were £34,300 [per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)] for ADA, £38,800 for ETN, £36,200 for IFX, £21,200 for RTX and £38,600 for ABT. RTX dominates the TNF inhibitors and the ICER for ABT compared with RTX is over £100,000 (per QALY). LIMITATIONS Paucity of evidence from RCTs for assessing the clinical effectiveness of TNF inhibitors and an absence of head-to-head trials comparing the five technologies. CONCLUSIONS Evidence from RCTs suggests that RTX and ABT are more effective than supportive care. Data from observational studies suggest that the use of an alternative TNF inhibitor in patients who exhibit an inadequate response to a first TNF inhibitor may offer some benefit, but there remain uncertainties with regard to the magnitude of treatment effects and their cost-effectiveness. Future research should include head-to-head trials comparing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the technologies against each other and emerging biologics. FUNDING This study was funded by the Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Subcutaneous and sublingual immunotherapy for seasonal allergic rhinitis: a systematic review and indirect comparison.

BACKGROUND Severe allergic rhinitis uncontrolled by pharmacotherapy can adversely affect quality of life. Both subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) have demonstrated effectiveness in this patient group; however, it remains uncertain which route of administration is more effective. OBJECTIVES We sought to update existing systematic reviews on the clinical effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT versus placebo, to undertake a systematic review of head-to-head trials, and to compare the relative effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT in an adjusted indirect comparison. METHODS Standard systematic review methods aimed at minimizing bias were used. Double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SCIT or SLIT or trials of SCIT versus SLIT were included. Meta-analysis and indirect comparison meta-analysis with meta-regression were performed. RESULTS Updated meta-analyses confirmed statistically significant benefits for SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo in adults and, to a lesser extent, in children. Only 1 head-to-head trial met the inclusion criteria; both this and the indirect comparisons did not provide conclusive results in favor of either SCIT or SLIT based on symptom-medication or quality-of-life scores. There was a trend toward favoring SCIT for symptom and medication scores. CONCLUSIONS Although there is clear evidence of effectiveness of both SCIT and SLIT, superiority of one mode of administration over the other could not be consistently demonstrated through indirect comparison, and further research is needed to establish the comparative effectiveness of SCIT versus SLIT.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of computer and other electronic aids for smoking cessation: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Smoking is harmful to health. On average, lifelong smokers lose 10 years of life, and about half of all lifelong smokers have their lives shortened by smoking. Stopping smoking reverses or prevents many of these harms. However, cessation services in the NHS achieve variable success rates with smokers who want to quit. Approaches to behaviour change can be supplemented with electronic aids, and this may significantly increase quit rates and prevent a proportion of cases that relapse. OBJECTIVE The primary research question we sought to answer was: What is the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of internet, pc and other electronic aids to help people stop smoking? We addressed the following three questions: (1) What is the effectiveness of internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids for smoking cessation and/or reducing relapse? (2) What is the cost-effectiveness of incorporating internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids into current nhs smoking cessation programmes? and (3) What are the current gaps in research into the effectiveness of internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids to help people stop smoking? DATA SOURCES For the effectiveness review, relevant primary studies were sought from The Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)] 2009, Issue 4, and MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), PsycINFO (Ovid), Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC) (Ovid) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (EBSCOhost) from 1980 to December 2009. In addition, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) were searched for information on cost-effectiveness and modelling for the same period. Reference lists of included studies and of relevant systematic reviews were examined to identify further potentially relevant studies. Research registries of ongoing studies including National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database, Current Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov were also searched, and further information was sought from contacts with experts. REVIEW METHODS Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs evaluating smoking cessation programmes that utilise computer, internet, mobile telephone or other electronic aids in adult smokers were included in the effectiveness review. Relevant studies of other design were included in the cost-effectiveness review and supplementary review. Pair-wise meta-analyses using both random- and fixed-effects models were carried out. Bayesian mixed-treatment comparisons (MTCs) were also performed. A de novo decision-analytical model was constructed for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated. Narrative synthesis of key themes and issues that may influence the acceptability and usability of electronic aids was provided in the supplementary review. RESULTS This effectiveness review included 60 RCTs/quasi-RCTs reported in 77 publications. Pooled estimate for prolonged abstinence [relative risk (RR) = 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.45] and point prevalence abstinence (RR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.22) suggested that computer and other electronic aids increase the likelihood of cessation compared with no intervention or generic self-help materials. There was no significant difference in effect sizes between aid to cessation studies (which provide support to smokers who are ready to quit) and cessation induction studies (which attempt to encourage a cessation attempt in smokers who are not yet ready to quit). Results from MTC also showed small but significant intervention effect (time to relapse, mean hazard ratio 0.87, 95% credible interval 0.83 to 0.92). Cost-threshold analyses indicated some form of electronic intervention is likely to be cost-effective when added to non-electronic behavioural support, but there is substantial uncertainty with regard to what the most effective (thus most cost-effective) type of electronic intervention is, which warrants further research. EVPI calculations suggested the upper limit for the benefit of this research is around £ 2000-3000 per person. LIMITATIONS The review focuses on smoking cessation programmes in the adult population, but does not cover smoking cessation in adolescents. Most available evidence relates to interventions with a single tailored component, while evidence for different modes of delivery (e.g. e-mail, text messaging) is limited. Therefore, the findings of lack of sufficient evidence for proving or refuting effectiveness should not be regarded as evidence of ineffectiveness. We have examined only a small number of factors that could potentially influence the effectiveness of the interventions. A comprehensive evaluation of potential effect modifiers at study level in a systematic review of complex interventions remains challenging. Information presented in published papers is often insufficient to allow accurate coding of each intervention or comparator. A limitation of the cost-effectiveness analysis, shared with several previous cost-effectiveness analyses of smoking cessation interventions, is that intervention benefit is restricted to the first quit attempt. Exploring the impact of interventions on subsequent attempts requires more detailed information on patient event histories than is available from current evidence. CONCLUSIONS Our effectiveness review concluded that computer and other electronic aids increase the likelihood of cessation compared with no intervention or generic self-help materials, but the effect is small. The effectiveness does not appear to vary with respect to mode of delivery and concurrent non-electronic co-interventions. Our cost-effectiveness review suggests that making some form of electronic support available to smokers actively seeking to quit is highly likely to be cost-effective. This is true whether the electronic intervention is delivered alongside brief advice or more intensive counselling. The key source of uncertainty is that around the comparative effectiveness of different types of electronic interventions. Our review suggests that further research is needed on the relative benefits of different forms of delivery for electronic aids, the content of delivery, and the acceptability of these technologies for smoking cessation with subpopulations of smokers, particularly disadvantaged groups. More evidence is also required on the relationship between involving users in the design of interventions and the impact this has on effectiveness, and finally on how electronic aids developed and tested in research settings are applied in routine practice and in the community.

A systematic review of positron emission tomography (PET) and positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) for the diagnosis of breast cancer recurrence

BACKGROUND Breast cancer (BC) accounts for one-third of all cases of cancer in women in the UK. Current strategies for the detection of BC recurrence include computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and bone scintigraphy. Positron emission tomography (PET) and, more recently, positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) are technologies that have been shown to have increasing relevance in the detection and management of BC recurrence. OBJECTIVE To review the accuracy of PET and PET/CT for the diagnosis of BC recurrence by assessing their value compared with current practice and compared with each other. DATA SOURCES MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from inception to May 2009. STUDY SELECTION Studies were included if investigations used PET or PET/CT to diagnose BC recurrence in patients with a history of BC and if the reference standard used to define the true disease status was histological diagnosis and/or long-term clinical follow-up. Studies were excluded if a non-standard PET or PET/CT technology was used, investigations were conducted for screening or staging of primary breast cancer, there was an inadequate or undefined reference standard, or raw data for calculation of diagnostic accuracy were not available. STUDY APPRAISAL Quality assessment and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Direct and indirect comparisons were made between PET and PET/CT and between these technologies and methods of conventional imaging, and meta-analyses were carried out. Analysis was conducted separately on patient- and lesion-based data. Subgroup analysis was conducted to investigate variation in the accuracy of PET in certain populations or contexts and sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the reliability of the primary outcome measures. RESULTS Of the 28 studies included in the review, 25 presented patient-based data and 7 presented lesion-based data for PET and 5 presented patient-based data and 1 presented patient- and lesion-based data for PET/CT; 16 studies conducted direct comparisons with 12 comparing the accuracy of PET or PET/CT with conventional diagnostic tests and 4 with MRI. For patient-based data (direct comparison) PET had significantly higher sensitivity [89%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 83% to 93% vs 79%, 95% CI 72% to 85%, relative sensitivity 1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.21, p = 0.005] and significantly higher specificity (93%, 95% CI 83% to 97% vs 83%, 95% CI 67% to 92%, relative specificity 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24, p = 0.036) compared with conventional imaging tests (CITs)--test performance did not appear to vary according to the type of CIT tested. For patient-based data (direct comparison) PET/CT had significantly higher sensitivity compared with CT (95%, 95% CI 88% to 98% vs 80%, 95% CI 65% to 90%, relative sensitivity 1.19, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.37, p = 0.015), but the increase in specificity was not significant (89%, 95% CI 69% to 97% vs 77%, 95% CI 50% to 92%, relative specificity 1.15, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.41, p = 0.157). For patient-based data (direct comparison) PET/CT had significantly higher sensitivity compared with PET (96%, 95% CI 90% to 98% vs 85%, 95% CI 77% to 91%, relative sensitivity 1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.18, p = 0.006), but the increase in specificity was not significant (89%, 95% CI 74% to 96% vs 82%, 95% CI 64% to 92%, relative specificity 1.08, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.20, p = 0.267). For patient-based data there were no significant differences in the sensitivity or specificity of PET when compared with MRI, and, in the one lesion based study, there was no significant differences in the sensitivity or specificity of PET/CT when compared with MRI. LIMITATIONS Studies reviewed were generally small and retrospective and this may have limited the generalisability of findings. Subgroup analysis was conducted on the whole set of studies investigating PET and was not restricted to comparative studies. Conventional imaging studies that were not compared with PET or PET/CT were excluded from the review. CONCLUSIONS Available evidence suggests that for the detection of BC recurrence PET, in addition to conventional imaging techniques, may generally offer improved diagnostic accuracy compared with current standard practice. However, uncertainty remains around its use as a replacement for, rather than an add-on to, existing imaging technologies. In addition, PET/CT appeared to show clear advantage over CT and PET alone for the diagnosis of BC recurrence. FUTURE WORK Future research should include: prospective studies with patient populations clearly defined with regard to their clinical presentation; a study of diagnostic accuracy of PET/CT compared with conventional imaging techniques; a study of PET/CT compared with whole-body MRI; studies investigating the possibility of using PET/CT as a replacement for rather than an addition to CITs; and using modelling of the impact of PET/CT on patient outcomes to inform the possibility of conducting large-scale intervention trials.

A systematic review and economic evaluation of subcutaneous and sublingual allergen immunotherapy in adults and children with seasonal allergic rhinitis

BACKGROUND Severe allergic rhinitis uncontrolled by conventional medication can substantially affect quality of life. Immunotherapy involves administering increasing doses of a specific allergen, with the aim of reducing sensitivity and symptomatic reactions. Recent meta-analyses have concluded that both subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) are more effective than placebo in reducing symptoms. It is uncertain which route of administration is more effective and whether or not treatment is cost-effective. OBJECTIVE To determine the comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT for seasonal allergic rhinitis in adults and children. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases {MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)], NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED)} and trial registries (from inception up to April 2011). REVIEW METHODS Standard systematic review methods were used for study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Double-blind randomised, placebo-controlled trials of SCIT or SLIT, or of SCIT compared with SLIT, and economic evaluations were included. Meta-analysis and indirect comparison meta-analysis and meta-regression were carried out. A new economic model was constructed to estimate cost-utility. RESULTS Meta-analyses found statistically significant effects for SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo across a number of outcome measures and for the vast majority of subgroup analyses (type and amount of allergen, duration of treatment). There was less evidence for children, but some results in favour of SLIT were statistically significant. Indirect comparisons did not provide conclusive results in favour of either SCIT or SLIT. Economic modelling suggested that, when compared with symptomatic treatment (ST), both SCIT and SLIT may become cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) from around 6 years, or 5 years for SCIT compared with SLIT (NHS and patient perspective). LIMITATIONS It is uncertain to what extent changes in the outcome measures used in the trials translate into clinically meaningful benefits. Cost-effectiveness estimates are based on a simple model, limited data and a number of assumptions, and should be seen as indicative only. CONCLUSIONS A benefit from both SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo has been consistently demonstrated, but the extent of this effectiveness in terms of clinical benefit is unclear. Both SCIT and SLIT may be cost-effective compared with ST from around 6 years (threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY). Further research is needed to establish the comparative effectiveness of SCIT compared with SLIT and to provide more robust cost-effectiveness estimates. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with underlying severe emphysema

BACKGROUND Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) has recently re-emerged as a surgical option for the treatment of end stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to underlying severe emphysema. Advocates of LVRS claim that it represents a significant breakthrough in the management of this challenging group of patients while sceptics point to uncertainty about the effectiveness of the operation. METHODS A systematic review was conducted of the evidence on the effects of LVRS in patients with end stage COPD secondary to severe emphysema. RESULTS The most rigorous evidence on the effectiveness of LVRS came from case series. Seventy five potentially relevant studies were identified and 19 individual series met the methodological criteria for inclusion. The pattern of results was consistent across individual studies despite a significant degree of clinical heterogeneity. Significant short term benefits occurred across a range of outcomes which appeared to continue into the longer term. Physiological improvements were matched by functional and subjective improvements. Early mortality rates were low and late mortality rates compared favourably with those of the general COPD population. However, the entire research base for the intervention is subject to the limitations of study designs without parallel control groups. CONCLUSIONS LVRS appears to represent a promising option in the management of patients with severe end stage emphysema. However, until the results of ongoing clinical trials are available, the considerable uncertainty that exists around the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the procedure will remain.

Combined anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy for high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: a systematic review

BACKGROUND Previous research suggests uncertainty whether or not there is any additional benefit in adding antiplatelet therapy (APT) to anticoagulation therapy (ACT) in patients with high-risk atrial fibrillation (AF) in terms of reduction in vascular events, including stroke. The existing guidelines acknowledge an increased risk of bleeding associated with such a strategy; however, there is no consensus on the treatment pathway. OBJECTIVES To determine, by undertaking a systematic review, if the addition of APT to ACT is beneficial compared with ACT alone in patients with AF who are considered to be at high risk of thromboembolic events (TEs). DATA SOURCES Data sources included bibliographic databases {the Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)], MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network Portfolio, Current Controlled Trials (CCT) and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP)}, reference lists from identified systematic reviews and relevant studies, and contact with clinical experts. Searches were from inception to September 2010 and did not use language restrictions or study design filters. REVIEW METHODS Studies of any design were included to evaluate clinical effectiveness, including randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised comparisons, cohort studies, case series or registries, longitudinal studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and conference abstracts published after 2008. Inclusion criteria consisted of a population with AF, at high-risk of TEs, aged ≥ 18 years, on combined ACT and APT compared with others on ACT alone or ACT plus placebo. Inclusion decisions, assessment of study quality and data extraction were undertaken using methods to minimise bias. RESULTS Fifty-three publications were included, reporting five RCTs (11 publications), 18 non-randomised comparisons (24 publications) and 18 publications that reported reviews, which added no further data. There was variation in the population, types and doses of ACT and APT, definitions of outcomes, and length of follow-up between the studies. There was a paucity of directly randomised high-quality RCTs, whereas non-randomised comparisons were found to have significant confounding factors. No studies looked at the effect of ACT plus APT compared with ACT alone on vascular events in patients with AF following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or percutaneous coronary intervention. In most studies, significant differences in event rates were not seen between the patients on combined therapy compared with those on ACT alone for outcomes such as stroke (including haemorrhagic and ischaemic strokes), rates of transient ischaemic attacks, composite end points of stroke and systemic embolism (SE), SE alone, acute myocardial infarction, mortality (vascular or all cause) or bleeding events. There was conflicting evidence regarding rates of major adverse events consisting of composite end points, although event rates were generally low. LIMITATIONS An attempt was made to identify all of the available evidence around the subject despite the dearth of directly randomised studies using a robust review methodology. There was a paucity of directly randomised evidence to undertake a meta-analysis for the merits of one technology over another. The selection criteria were kept necessarily broad with regard to the population, intervention and comparator in order to capture all relevant studies. CONCLUSIONS This systematic review suggests that there is still insufficient evidence to advocate a clear benefit of the addition of APT to ACT compared with ACT alone in reducing the risk of vascular events in a population of patients at high risk of TEs resulting from AF. It is recommended that a definitive prospective RCT needs to be undertaken in a population at high risk of atherosclerotic coronary artery and other vascular events in addition to being at high risk of AF-mediated TEs. From the UK context, at the time of writing, any future trial should compare adjusted-dose warfarin [international normalised ratio (INR) 2.0-3.0] plus aspirin (75-325 mg) with adjusted-dose warfarin (INR 2.0-3.0). However, given the emergence of newer anticoagulation agents (dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban) this prioritisation may need to be revisited in the future to reflect current best clinical practice. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Assessing the outcomes of prolonged cessation-induction and aid-to-cessation trials: Floating prolonged abstinence

INTRODUCTION A Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco working group recommended outcome measures for cessation-induction trials and aid-to-cessation trials. Cessation-induction trials aim to motivate unwilling quitters to make a quit attempt. Aid-to-cessation trials give either medication or behavioral interventions to increase the rate at which willing quitters succeed in their attempts. Nicotine-assisted reduction programs combine features of both types of interventions by giving nicotine replacement to unwilling quitters. Treatment can be prolonged more than a year, quit attempts can occur and succeed early or late in the program, and renewed quit attempts are an inherent part of the program. Conventional outcome measures are tied to a fixed but arbitrary point in follow-up and cannot capture the true outcome: Prolonged cessation anchored to the point at which a person makes a successful quit attempt. DISCUSSION We propose that the outcome should be counted from the successful quit attempt that began during the treatment period and continues for a defined period, ideally 6 months. In particular, if a trial compared a short reduction program with a long reduction program, it would not be possible to obtain an unbiased assessment of the outcome of such a trial using a measure tied to a fixed point in follow-up. Floating prolonged abstinence could provide such an assessment and is suitable for either prolonged cessation-induction trial or combined cessation-induction and aid-to-cessation trials.

Infliximab for the treatment of ulcerative colitis.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infliximab for moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (UC) based upon a review of the manufacturers submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellent (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The submission indicated that the efficacy of infliximab (5 mg/kg) had been demonstrated in terms of higher response rates and a sustained response in health-related quality of life. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, the manufacturer built a Markov model to compare infliximab with standard care. It estimated the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was between 25,044 pounds and 33,866 pounds depending on the strategy used. The ERG report generally agreed with the evidence on effectiveness of infliximab for subacute exacerbations of UC. However, there were several areas of uncertainty, of which the interpretation of the importance of the quality of life changes in the subacute situation and the assessment of the adequacy of the evidence of effectiveness of infliximab in the acute hospital-based situation were considered pre-eminent by the ERG. This challenged the estimates of cost-effectiveness offered and suggested that there should be a separate assessment of infliximab for acute exacerbations of moderately to severely active UC. The summary of the NICE guidance issued in April 2008 as a result of the STA states that: infliximab is not recommended for the treatment of subacute manifestations of moderately to severely active UC.