A. G. Tereshin

World power engineering and global climate after the year 2100

Results obtained from a study of the present state of the world’s power engineering, prospects for its future development, and its effect on the environment and climate for the period of up to 2200 are presented. It is shown that, given the framework of modern tendencies in the development of civilization, it is expected that the number of the population on the planet, consumption of energy in the world, and scales of negative effect on the atmosphere will all be stabilized.

Changing pattern and amount of the residential and commercial energy consumption in response to economic and climatic factors

This paper presents the results of calculating the amounts and the pattern of energy consumption in the residential and the commercial sectors of the Russia economy under conditions of the present-day economic development with due regard for climate change. The analysis of regional specific features and the estimate of the future energy consumption by the housing and municipal services (HMS) sector for the period until 2050, as well as a comparison with similar indicators found in foreign countries, are given. It has been shown that, as a result of improved living standards, enhanced energy efficiency in the HMS sector, and global warming for the next decades to come, a considerable reduction in the specific energy consumption in this sphere will take place, while the pattern of the energy consumption in it will correspond to the present-day situation in Canada. In southern regions of Russia this indicator will approach the values typical for the northern contiguous states of the USA.

To avoid global warming by 2°C—mission impossible

Investigations have been carried out into the basic implications of the decisions taken in December 2015 at the Paris conference of the countries–participants of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for the world energy and for the atmosphere and climate. Based on the studied historical record of specific CO2 emissions in the energy production by different countries, it is shown that the implementation of the Paris Agreement will require an unprecedented effort to modernize the global energy sector; in particular, rapid elimination of coal from the global energy mix and a substantially increased share therein of carbon-free energy sources (hydro and nuclear power and alternative renewable energy sources (renewables)) to one third by the middle of this century. We have developed a scenario for the global energy demand mix corresponding to the guidelines of the Paris Agreement and its more conservative variant extending the trend of the last 15 years. It has been established that, under any of the development scenarios, the global mean temperature is to exceed the level of 1.5°C as soon as within a few decades. Using model simulations of the changes in the atmosphere and climate, we show that even the full implementation of the Paris Agreements will not prevent the increase in average global temperature by 2°C as compared to the preindustrial levels. The world community faces a difficult choice between the implementation of more stringent measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which we believe to be almost unreal, and adaptation to utterly new climatic conditions, which will last for centuries to come.

Test of developing long-term forecasts of world energy impact on the earth’s atmosphere

It has been established that the historical approach to world energy forecasting can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes reaching a plateau of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century against the background of a continuing decrease in sulfur dioxide emission. From the historical point of view, the implementation of the most aggressive scenarios of human impact on the atmosphere and climate seems very unlikely.

Performance of gas turbines in Russia under the changing climatic conditions

The impact of the expected climatic changes on the performance of gas turbine units (GTU) as part of the power industry and gas pipeline network in Russia is considered. Long-term estimates of changes in the average annual air temperature throughout the country are made based on the authors’ model. The calculations using the efficiency value of gas turbine units as a function of the ambient air temperature show that climatic changes will significantly deteriorate the operational efficiency of gas-turbine equipment in practically all of Russia’s regions. Based on publicly available statistical data, we assessed the installed capacity of gas-turbine power stations (including combined-cycle power plants) and gas-turbine drive of gas pipeline network. Three development scenarios have been considered for gas turbine power in the national electric power industry, differing in the rates of new facilities’ commissioning. Integrated estimates have been made of the increase in gas consumption in Russia’s gas pipeline network and power industry resulting from climatic changes by 2030 and 2050. It is shown that the total increase in the annual gas consumption associated with a reduction in the efficiency of gas turbine units due to climate warming by 2030 could reach approximately 130000 tce (of which approximately 90000 tce in the gas pipeline network and 40000 tce in the electric power industry) and more than 170000 tce (120000 and 50000 tce, respectively) by 2050. Should more optimistic scenarios be implemented for the development of the electric power industry, this effect will increase 1.5–2.0 times by 2050. Despite high absolute values, the increase in GTU fuel expenditures due to higher ambient temperatures resulting from climate change in Russia will only amount to a fraction of a percent of the total gas consumption and will be two orders of magnitude lower than the savings in space heating.

The 2015 Paris Climate Conference: A turning point in the world’s energy history

It has been established that the consistent implementation of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference implies the quick retire of coal from the global energy balance and its replacement with the energy from unconventional and renewable sources. It is shown that even the full-scale implementation of the agreement will not keep global warming within 2°C.

Golden Age of Gas and Its Impact on the World Energy, the Global Carbon Cycle and Climate

Global and regional resource and environmental problems of production and use of unconventional gas (UG) are studied. Estimations for world and national reserves of various kinds of UG are presented. The dynamics of the gas share in total energy consumption and thermal power generation around the world is analyzed. Projections of the world production of conventional gas and UG are proposed. Variations in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and the corresponding changes in average global air temperature are calculated for various scenarios suggesting unconventional gas substitution of different energy sources. The possible consequences of expected climate changes for Russia’s power industry are analyzed. It is shown that, despite the uncertainty in the estimates of the economic and environmental consequences of shale gas (SG) production, its use, according to the available resource estimates, can make it possible to solve global and regional problems associated with energy (import substitution) and environment protection (replacing the less clean coal fuel). However, the development of the huge global resources of this type of fuel can have a significant effect on the chemical and thermal radiative balance of the Earth’s atmosphere, and it must be noted that the climatic effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the UG combustion greatly exceeds the consequences of methane leakage during its production. In order to sustain the stability of the global climate system, the development of the world’s large UG resources must be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in the use of coal. This is the only way for UG to become a safe energy bridge to the future, able to keep the climate system at the threshold of critical values. Direct effects of possible climatic changes on the territory of Russia for the domestic energy complex are estimated as more positive than adverse, mainly due to lower energy costs for space heating.

Does the Kyoto Protocol have a future

Analysis is made of the chances for the participating countries of the Kyoto Protocol to meet their national commitments to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and of the effect this may produce in the field of environmental protection. It is demonstrated that, given the present-day tendencies in the development of power industry, the majority of developed countries will be incapable of reducing the amounts of emission of carbon dioxide by 2010. In the future, the Kyoto process will be impossible to sustain without participation of developing countries where the energy consumption and emission of greenhouse gases increase at a rapid pace.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4–6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10–15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia’s energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

Moscow: A natural testing area for strong warming impact assessment

In recent decades, Moscow has experienced the impact of remarkable climate changes on a scale that has significantly exceeded the climate changes in most of the world’s populated regions. Analysis of operation of the Moscow energy system under these new conditions has allowed us to reveal that the climate changes have determined alleviation of energy supply requirements during the cold season, contributed to decreased overall energy consumption, and led to reduced seasonal irregularity of the annual power load schedule. The results of this study allow us to conclude that an increase in the annual-mean temperature by 3–4°C in temperate and cold climate zones for continental regions brings no apparent negative consequences for operation of the energy system.