A. J. Morales

Efficiency of human activity on information spreading on Twitter

Understanding the collective reaction to individual actions is key to effectively spread information in social media. In this work we define efficiency on Twitter, as the ratio between the emergent spreading process and the activity employed by the user. We characterize this property by means of a quantitative analysis of the structural and dynamical patterns emergent from human interactions, and show it to be universal across several Twitter conversations. We found that some influential users efficiently cause remarkable collective reactions by each message sent, while the majority of users must employ extremely larger efforts to reach similar effects. Next we propose a model that reproduces the retweet cascades occurring on Twitter to explain the emergent distribution of the user efficiency. The model shows that the dynamical patterns of the conversations are strongly conditioned by the topology of the underlying network. We conclude that the appearance of a small fraction of extremely efficient users results from the heterogeneity of the followers network and independently of the individual user behavior.

Measuring political polarization: Twitter shows the two sides of Venezuela

We say that a population is perfectly polarized when divided in two groups of the same size and opposite opinions. In this paper, we propose a methodology to study and measure the emergence of polarization from social interactions. We begin by proposing a model to estimate opinions in which a minority of influential individuals propagate their opinions through a social network. The result of the model is an opinion probability density function. Next, we propose an index to quantify the extent to which the resulting distribution is polarized. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to a Twitter conversation about the late Venezuelan president, Hugo Chávez, finding a good agreement between our results and offline data. Hence, we show that our methodology can detect different degrees of polarization, depending on the structure of the network.

A possible link between pyriproxyfen and microcephaly

The Zika virus has been the primary suspect in the large increase in incidence of microcephaly in 2015-6 in Brazil. While evidence for Zika being the cause of some of the cases is strong, its role as the primary cause of the large number of cases in Brazil has not been confirmed. Recently, the disparity between the incidences in different geographic locations has led to questions about the viruss role. Here we consider the alternative possibility that the use of the insecticide pyriproxyfen for control of mosquito populations in Brazilian drinking water is the primary cause. Pyriproxifen is a juvenile hormone analog which has been shown to correspond in mammals to a number of fat soluble regulatory molecules including retinoic acid, a metabolite of vitamin A, with which it has cross-reactivity and whose application during development has been shown to cause microcephaly. Methoprene, another juvenile hormone analog that was approved as an insecticide based upon tests performed in the 1970s, has metabolites that bind to the mammalian retinoid X receptor, and has been shown to cause developmental disorders in mammals. Isotretinoin is another example of a retinoid causing microcephaly in human babies via maternal exposure and activation of the retinoid X receptor in developing fetuses. Moreover, tests of pyriproxyfen by the manufacturer, Sumitomo, widely quoted as giving no evidence for developmental toxicity, actually found some evidence for such an effect, including low brain mass and arhinencephaly—incomplete formation of the anterior cerebral hemispheres—in exposed rat pups. Finally, the pyriproxyfen use in Brazil is unprecedented—it has never before been applied to a water supply on such a scale. Claims that it is not being used in Recife, the epicenter of microcephaly cases, do not distinguish the metropolitan area of Recife, where it is widely used, and the municipality, and have not been adequately confirmed. Given this combination of information about molecular mechanisms and toxicological evidence, we strongly recommend that the use of pyriproxyfen in Brazil be suspended until the potential causal link to microcephaly is investigated further.

Global patterns of synchronization in human communications

Social media are transforming global communication and coordination and provide unprecedented opportunities for studying socio-technical domains. Here we study global dynamical patterns of communication on Twitter across many scales. Underlying the observed patterns is both the diurnal rotation of the Earth, day and night, and the synchrony required for contingency of actions between individuals. We find that urban areas show a cyclic contraction and expansion that resembles heartbeats linked to social rather than natural cycles. Different urban areas have characteristic signatures of daily collective activities. We show that the differences detected are consistent with a new emergent global synchrony that couples behaviour in distant regions across the world. Although local synchrony is the major force that shapes the collective behaviour in cities, a larger-scale synchronization is beginning to occur.

The Case for Pyriproxyfen as a Potential Cause for Microcephaly; From Biology to Epidemiology

The Zika virus has been the primary suspect in the large increase in incidence of microcephaly in 2015-6 in Brazil. However its role is not confirmed despite individual cases in which viral infections were found in neural tissue. Recently, the disparity between the incidences in different geographic locations has led to questions about the virus’s role. Here we consider the alternative possibility that the use of the insecticide pyriproxyfen for control of mosquito populations in Brazilian drinking water is the primary cause. Pyriproxifen is a juvenile hormone analog which has been shown to correspond in mammals to a number of fat soluble regulatory molecules including retinoic acid, a metabolite of vitamin A, with which it has cross-reactivity and whose application during development has been shown to cause microcephaly. Methoprene, another juvenile hormone analog that was approved as an insecticide based upon tests performed in the 1970s, has metabolites that bind to the mammalian retinoid X receptor, and has been shown to cause developmental disorders in mammals. Isotretinoin is another example of a retinoid causing microcephaly in human babies via maternal exposure and activation of the retinoid X receptor in developing fetuses. Moreover, tests of pyriproxyfen by the manufacturer, Sumitomo, widely quoted as giving no evidence for developmental toxicity, actually found some evidence for such an effect, including low brain mass and arhinencephaly—incomplete formation of the anterior cerebral hemispheres—in exposed rat pups. Finally, the pyriproxyfen use in Brazil is unprecedented— it has never before been applied to a water supply on such a scale. Claims that it is not being used in Recife, the epicenter of microcephaly cases, do not distinguish the metropolitan area of Recife, where it is widely used, and the municipality, and have not been adequately confirmed. Given this combination of information about molecular mechanisms and toxicological evidence, we strongly recommend that the use of pyriproxyfen in Brazil be suspended until the potential causal link to microcephaly is investigated further.The Zika virus has been the primary suspect in the large increase in incidence of microcephaly in 2015-6 in Brazil. However its role is not confirmed despite individual cases in which viral infections were found in neural tissue. Recently, the disparity between the incidences in different geographic locations has led to questions about the virus9s role. Here we consider the alternative possibility that the use of the insecticide pyriproxyfen for control of mosquito populations in Brazilian drinking water is the primary cause. Pyriproxifen is a juvenile hormone analog which has been shown to correspond in mammals to a number of fat soluble regulatory molecules including retinoic acid, a metabolite of vitamin A, with which it has cross-reactivity and whose application during development has been shown to cause microcephaly. Methoprene, another juvenile hormone analog that was approved as an insecticide based upon tests performed in the 1970s, has metabolites that bind to the mammalian retinoid X receptor, and has been shown to cause developmental disorders in mammals. Isotretinoin is another example of a retinoid causing microcephaly in human babies via maternal exposure and activation of the retinoid X receptor in developing fetuses. Moreover, tests of pyriproxyfen by the manufacturer, Sumitomo, widely quoted as giving no evidence for developmental toxicity, actually found some evidence for such an effect, including low brain mass and arhinencephaly-incomplete formation of the anterior cerebral hemispheres-in exposed rat pups. Finally, the pyriproxyfen use in Brazil is unprecedented-it has never before been applied to a water supply on such a scale. Claims that it is not being used in Recife, the epicenter of microcephaly cases, do not distinguish the metropolitan area of Recife, where it is widely used, and the municipality, and have not been adequately confirmed. Given this combination of information about molecular mechanisms and toxicological evidence, we strongly recommend that the use of pyriproxyfen in Brazil be suspended until the potential causal link to microcephaly is investigated further.

Agricultural activity shapes the communication and migration patterns in Senegal

The communication and migration patterns of a country are shaped by its socioeconomic processes. The economy of Senegal is predominantly rural, as agriculture employs over 70% of the labor force. In this paper, we use mobile phone records to explore the impact of agricultural activity on the communication and mobility patterns of the inhabitants of Senegal. We find two peaks of phone calls activity emerging during the growing season. Moreover, during the harvest period, we detect an increase in the migration flows throughout the country. However, religious holidays also shape the mobility patterns of the Senegalese people. Hence, in the light of our results, agricultural activity and religious holidays are the primary drivers of mobility inside the country.

Agricultural activity shapes the mobility patterns in Senegal

The communication and migration patterns of a country are shaped by its socioeconomic processes. The economy of Senegal is predominantly rural, as agriculture employs over 70% of the labor force. In this work, we have used mobile phone records to explore the impact of agricultural activity on the mobility patterns of the inhabitants of Senegal. We have detected an increase in the migration flows throughout the country during the harvest season. At the same time, religious holidays also shape the mobility patterns of the Senegalese people, since, as in many cultures, they are related to climate seasons and agricultural activities. Hence, in the light of our results, agricultural activity and religious holidays are the primary drivers of mobility inside the country.

Characterizing and Modeling Collective Behavior in Complex Events on Twitter

All around the world people are increasingly using Internet and online social networks to relate among each other. This fact is bringing a unprecedented amount of user generated data, which is certainly attracting research on several fields. In this work we analyze the user interactions in Twitter around two politically motivated events, like a Venezuelan protest and the 2011 Spanish Presidential electoral campaign. We found that users participated quite heterogeneously, as a tiny fraction of them concentrates much of the activity or collective attention. This heterogeneity gives place to critical features, like interaction networks with power law distributions and modular structure. Although online social networks appear to be a pure social environment, we found traditional agents, such as well known politicians and media hold loads of influence among the participants.