A. John Maule

Breaking the frame: An analysis of strategic cognition and decision making under uncertainty

This paper reports the findings of two experimental investigations into the efficacy of a causal cognitive mapping procedure as a means for overcoming cognitive biases arising from the framing of strategic decision problems. In Study 1, final year management studies undergraduate students were presented with an elaborated strategic decision scenario, under one of four experimental conditions: positively vs. negatively framed decision scenarios, with prechoice vs. postchoice mapping task orders (i.e., participants were required to engage in cognitive mapping before or after making a decision). As predicted, participants in the postchoice mapping conditions succumbed to the framing bias whereas those in the prechoice mapping conditions did not. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings in a field setting, on a sample of senior managers, using a decision scenario that closely mirrored a strategic dilemma currently facing their organization. Taken together, the findings of these studies indicate that the framing bias is likely to be an important factor in strategic decision making, and suggest that cognitive mapping provides an effective means of limiting the damage accruing from this bias. Copyright

Effects of time-pressure on decision-making under uncertainty: changes in affective state and information processing strategy.

An experiment is reported that investigated the extent to which affective state, information processing strategy and task structure determine the effects of time-pressure on decision-making. Research participants were presented with risk scenarios involving a choice between safe and risky actions. The scenarios were systematically varied in terms of outcome valence (positive or negative) and effort associated with taking the safe action (high or low). Half the participants were given unlimited time to make their decision, the other half were required to choose within a deadline. The findings showed that time-pressured participants were more anxious and energetic and used a number of different strategies to cope with the deadline. These effects, as well as changes in risk-taking, were shown to vary systematically with task structure, particularly the effort manipulation. The findings are discussed in terms of how they contribute to theories of time-pressure and the methodological implications they have for future research in this area.

Effects of negative mood states on risk in everyday decision making

How does negative mood affect risk taking? A brief questionnaire was used to measure state anxiety, depression, and fatigue, and a daily mood diary allowed state and trait (average level) mood to be separated. Studies 1 and 2 used natural moods and Study 3 a mood induction procedure. Risk was assessed using hypothetical everyday choice scenarios. Study 1 showed that riskiness was affected by state fatigue, but not by anxiety and depression. Study 2 showed that increased riskiness over a two - week period was predicted by fatigue changes, after controlling for riskiness and trait and state mood at time 1. Fatigue effects were stronger for more important scenarios, and when state anxiety was also high. In Study 3, covariance analyses showed that the observed increased in riskiness was related to induced fatigue, rather than to anxiety or depression. The effects are discussed in relation to the literature on fatigue effects, and models of mood and cognition.

Causal Cognitive Mapping in the Organizational Strategy Field: A Comparison of Alternative Elicitation Procedures

The present study evaluates two alternative causal cognitive mapping procedures that exemplify key differences among a number of direct elicitation techniques currently in use in the organizational strategy field: pairwise evaluation of causal relationships and a freeh and approach. The pairwise technique yielded relatively elaborate maps, but participants found the task more difficult, less engaging, and less representative than the freeh and approach. Implications for the choice of procedures in interventionist and research contexts are considered.

State, Stress, and Time Pressure

Research investigating the effects of time pressure on judgment and decision making has tended to conceptualize the effects of time constraints in one of two ways. One approach has considered the imposition of a deadline as a stressor, emphasizing the mediating role of changes in affective state in influencing cognition (Maule & Mackie, 1990; Svenson & dland, 1989). The second approach has assumed that time constraints are one among a number of task and environmental factors that are included in a cost/benefit determination of cognitive strategy (Payne, Bettman & Johnson, 1988; Payne, Johnson, Bettman, & Coupey, 1990). The aim of the present chapter is to critically evaluate these approaches and to consider them in the light of recent research on the effects of stress on cognition. To meet these aims, the chapter is structured in the following way. First, there is a brief discussion of a number of key methodological issues. This is followed by a brief and selective review of major approaches investigating the effects of time constraints on judgment and decision making Finally, there is a review of Variable State Activation Theory (VSAT) (Hockey, 1986; Hockey, Briner, Tattersall, & Wiethoff, 1989; Hockey & Hamilton, 1983) and an analysis of how it may provide a unifying approach to develop our understanding of the effects of time constraints on judgment and decision making.

Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Behavioral Decision Making and Their Relation to Time Constraints

This chapter provides a general background to the studies of decision making addressed by the other contributors to the book. These contributions draw on a number of approaches, differentiated in terms of the aspects of the decision-making process that are the focus of attention and the theoretical and methodological approaches taken when conceptualizing and investigating the process. For instance, some contributions have investigated judgment, others choice, each adopting an approach that focuses primarily on the outcome of these activities or the nature of the cognitive processes that underlie them. In additon to identifying different approaches to the study of decision making, the potential of each approach for developing our understanding of the effects of time constraints on judgment and decision making are elaborated. This provides a broad coverage of issues, putting into perspective the different studies of judgment and decision making included in this volume.

Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias

Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when people are asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguous one? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former. This status quo bias emerged both within- and between-subjects, with and without incentives, with different outcome distributions, and with endowments determined by both the experimenter and the participants themselves. Findings emphasize the need to account for the frames of reference under which evaluations of probabilistic information take place as well as modifications that should be incorporated into descriptive models of decision making.

Re-appraising Managers' Perceptual Errors : A Behavioural Decision-Making Perspective

Findings reported by Mezias and Starbuck (2003), indicating that managers have inaccurate perceptions of their organization and its environment, are appraised in the context of work from the field of behavioural decision-making (BDM) on heuristics and biases. Drawing on theory, research and criticisms concerning calibration of human judgement, continuous versus discrete judgements and the adequacy of the normative solutions used, we identify issues that require further clarification and suggest lines of research to address them.

A componential investigation of the relation between structural modelling and cognitive accounts of human judgement

Structural modelling and cognitive process approaches have developed rather different accounts of human judgement and decision making. Two hypotheses to explain these differences were evaluated in the context of a judgement task, and formulated in terms of predictions concerning measurement of attribute importance. First, following suggestions made by Billings and Marcus (1983), it was argued that measures of judgement behaviour based on structural modelling reflect cognitive activity late in the judgement process, whereas measures derived from cognitive process approaches reflect cognitive activity early in the process. A new componential judgement task was developed which not only provided estimates of attribute importance based on structural modelling, but also two sets of cognitive process measures based on cognitive components assumed to occur early and late in the judgement process. A greater degree of convergence between approaches was predicted when the cognitive approach was based on activity in the component occurring later in the judgement process. Second, it was argued that in previous research subjects have had unlimited time to make their judgements, reducing the need for attribute importance to provide the dominant basis for determining processing strategy. The present experiment introduced a time pressure condition and, on the basis of previous research, predicted that this would increase the amount of information processing based on attribute importance, thereby increasing the convergence between estimates of attribute importance derived from the two approaches. The first, but not the second hypothesis was supported and the results were discussed in terms of their implications for understanding previous differences between the two approaches to human judgement.

Can Computers Help Overcome Limitations in Human Decision Making

The article considers the development of computer-assisted decision support in the context of contemporary research on the forms of thinking used by decision makers. It outlines the potential that computers have for overcoming known limitations in human thinking related to processing capacity and memory and the problems that occur when these applications are developed without full knowledge of the different kinds of thinking adopted by decision makers.