A. Kasturiratne

The Global Burden of Snakebite: A Literature Analysis and Modelling Based on Regional Estimates of Envenoming and Deaths

Background Envenoming resulting from snakebites is an important public health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries. Few attempts have been made to quantify the burden, and recent estimates all suffer from the lack of an objective and reproducible methodology. In an attempt to provide an accurate, up-to-date estimate of the scale of the global problem, we developed a new method to estimate the disease burden due to snakebites. Methods and Findings The global estimates were based on regional estimates that were, in turn, derived from data available for countries within a defined region. Three main strategies were used to obtain primary data: electronic searching for publications on snakebite, extraction of relevant country-specific mortality data from databases maintained by United Nations organizations, and identification of grey literature by discussion with key informants. Countries were grouped into 21 distinct geographic regions that are as epidemiologically homogenous as possible, in line with the Global Burden of Disease 2005 study (Global Burden Project of the World Bank). Incidence rates for envenoming were extracted from publications and used to estimate the number of envenomings for individual countries; if no data were available for a particular country, the lowest incidence rate within a neighbouring country was used. Where death registration data were reliable, reported deaths from snakebite were used; in other countries, deaths were estimated on the basis of observed mortality rates and the at-risk population. We estimate that, globally, at least 421,000 envenomings and 20,000 deaths occur each year due to snakebite. These figures may be as high as 1,841,000 envenomings and 94,000 deaths. Based on the fact that envenoming occurs in about one in every four snakebites, between 1.2 million and 5.5 million snakebites could occur annually. Conclusions Snakebites cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The highest burden exists in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

Epigenome-wide association of DNA methylation markers in peripheral blood from Indian Asians and Europeans with incident type 2 diabetes: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND Indian Asians, who make up a quarter of the worlds population, are at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether DNA methylation is associated with future type 2 diabetes incidence in Indian Asians and whether differences in methylation patterns between Indian Asians and Europeans are associated with, and could be used to predict, differences in the magnitude of risk of developing type 2 diabetes. METHODS We did a nested case-control study of DNA methylation in Indian Asians and Europeans with incident type 2 diabetes who were identified from the 8-year follow-up of 25 372 participants in the London Life Sciences Prospective Population (LOLIPOP) study. Patients were recruited between May 1, 2002, and Sept 12, 2008. We did epigenome-wide association analysis using samples from Indian Asians with incident type 2 diabetes and age-matched and sex-matched Indian Asian controls, followed by replication testing of top-ranking signals in Europeans. For both discovery and replication, DNA methylation was measured in the baseline blood sample, which was collected before the onset of type 2 diabetes. Epigenome-wide significance was set at p<1 × 10(-7). We compared methylation levels between Indian Asian and European controls without type 2 diabetes at baseline to estimate the potential contribution of DNA methylation to increased risk of future type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian Asians. FINDINGS 1608 (11·9%) of 13 535 Indian Asians and 306 (4·3%) of 7066 Europeans developed type 2 diabetes over a mean of 8·5 years (SD 1·8) of follow-up. The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of type 2 diabetes was 3·1 times (95% CI 2·8-3·6; p<0·0001) higher among Indian Asians than among Europeans, and remained 2·5 times (2·1-2·9; p<0·0001) higher after adjustment for adiposity, physical activity, family history of type 2 diabetes, and baseline glycaemic measures. The mean absolute difference in methylation level between type 2 diabetes cases and controls ranged from 0·5% (SD 0·1) to 1·1% (0·2). Methylation markers at five loci were associated with future type 2 diabetes incidence; the relative risk per 1% increase in methylation was 1·09 (95% CI 1·07-1·11; p=1·3 × 10(-17)) for ABCG1, 0·94 (0·92-0·95; p=4·2 × 10(-11)) for PHOSPHO1, 0·94 (0·92-0·96; p=1·4 × 10(-9)) for SOCS3, 1·07 (1·04-1·09; p=2·1 × 10(-10)) for SREBF1, and 0·92 (0·90-0·94; p=1·2 × 10(-17)) for TXNIP. A methylation score combining results for the five loci was associated with future type 2 diabetes incidence (relative risk quartile 4 vs quartile 1 3·51, 95% CI 2·79-4·42; p=1·3 × 10(-26)), and was independent of established risk factors. Methylation score was higher among Indian Asians than Europeans (p=1 × 10(-34)). INTERPRETATION DNA methylation might provide new insights into the pathways underlying type 2 diabetes and offer new opportunities for risk stratification and prevention of type 2 diabetes among Indian Asians. FUNDING The European Union, the UK National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust, the UK Medical Research Council, Action on Hearing Loss, the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the Oak Foundation, the Economic and Social Research Council, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, the German Research Center for Environmental Health, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the German Center for Diabetes Research, the Munich Center for Health Sciences, the Ministry of Science and Research of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia, and the German Federal Ministry of Health.

Environmental risk factors in inflammatory bowel disease: a population-based case-control study in Asia-Pacific.

Objective The rising incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Asia supports the importance of environmental risk factors in disease aetiology. This prospective population-based case-control study in Asia-Pacific examined risk factors prior to patients developing IBD. Design 442 incident cases (186 Crohns disease (CD); 256 UC; 374 Asians) diagnosed between 2011 and 2013 from eight countries in Asia and Australia and 940 controls (frequency-matched by sex, age and geographical location; 789 Asians) completed an environmental factor questionnaire at diagnosis. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted ORs (aOR) and 95% CIs. Results In multivariate model, being breast fed >12 months (aOR 0.10; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.30), antibiotic use (aOR 0.19; 0.07 to 0.52), having dogs (aOR 0.54; 0.35 to 0.83), daily tea consumption (aOR 0.62; 0.43 to 0.91) and daily physical activity (aOR 0.58; 0.35 to 0.96) decreased the odds for CD in Asians. In UC, being breast fed >12 months (aOR 0.16; 0.08 to 0.31), antibiotic use (aOR 0.48; 0.27 to 0.87), daily tea (aOR 0.63; 0.46 to 0.86) or coffee consumption (aOR 0.51; 0.36 to 0.72), presence of hot water tap (aOR 0.65; 0.46 to 0.91) and flush toilet in childhood (aOR 0.71; 0.51 to 0.98) were protective for UC development whereas ex-smoking (aOR 2.02; 1.22 to 3.35) increased the risk of UC. Conclusions This first population-based study of IBD risk factors in Asia-Pacific supports the importance of childhood immunological, hygiene and dietary factors in the development of IBD, suggesting that markers of altered intestinal microbiota may modulate risk of IBD later in life.

Prevalence and risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among adults in an urban Sri Lankan population

Background and Aims:  Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging problem in the Asia–Pacific region. However, its prevalence and risk factors in Asian (especially South Asian) communities is poorly studied. In this study, the aim was to determine the community prevalence and risk factors for NAFLD among adults in an urban Sri Lankan population.

Effect of Folic Acid, with or without Other B Vitamins, on Cognitive Decline: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

PURPOSE We aimed to quantify the effect of folic acid supplementation on the prevention of cognitive decline. METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis of 9 placebo-controlled randomized trials (2835 participants, median duration 6 months) of folic acid, with or without other B vitamins, on cognitive function. Standardized mean differences in cognitive function test scores were calculated between folic acid and placebo-treated groups. RESULTS The standardized mean difference in cognitive function test scores was 0.01 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], -0.08 to 0.10), or an increase of 1% (95% CI, -8% to 10%) of 1 standard deviation. The results were similar within each of the 4 categories of cognitive function (memory, speed, language, and executive function); standardized mean differences were 0.01 (95% CI, -0.08 to 0.09), -0.01 (95% CI, -0.10 to 0.13), -0.05 (95% CI, -0.15 to 0.04), and 0.03 (95% CI, -0.13 to 0.19), respectively. CONCLUSION Randomized trials show no effect of folic acid, with or without other B vitamins, on cognitive function within 3 years of the start of treatment. Trials of longer duration, recording the incidence of dementia, as well as cognitive decline, are needed.

Serum homocysteine and dementia: Meta-analysis of eight cohort studies including 8669 participants

Prospective cohort studies have not been consistent in showing an association between serum homocysteine and dementia.

Influence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease on the development of diabetes mellitus

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is linked to metabolic syndrome, and is known to be associated with impaired fasting glycemia and diabetes mellitus. This prospective community‐based study was conducted to determine the association between NAFLD and incidence of diabetes mellitus in an urban adult population in Sri Lanka.

Child-parent screening for familial hypercholesterolemia.

A pilot study of child-parent screening for familial hypercholesterolemia was undertaken in children aged 1 to 2 years coming for immunization. Of 214 parents asked, 200 agreed to screening (94%). Simultaneous immunization-cholesterol measurement was successful in all children. Population child-parent screening is feasible and acceptable when combined with pediatric immunization.

Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis.

Background There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka. Methodology/Principal Findings The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country’s population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356–441), 151 (130–173) and 2.3 (0.2–4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence. Conclusions/Significance This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region.

Survival of patients with alcoholic and cryptogenic cirrhosis without liver transplantation: a single center retrospective study.

BackgroundThere is no recent data addressing the long term survival of cirrhosis patients without transplantation, but with the availability of optimal pharmacological and endoscopic therapies. We compared the long term transplant free survival of alcoholic (AC) and cryptogenic (CC) cirrhosis patients in a setting where liver transplantation was, until very recently, not available. AC and CC patient details were extracted from our database, maintained since 1995. For those who had not attended clinics within the past 4 weeks, the patient or families were contacted to obtain survival status. If deceased, cause of death was ascertained from death certificates and patient records. Survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves.ResultsComplete details were available in 549/651 (84.3%) patients (AC 306, CC 243). Mean follow up duration (SD) (months) was 29.9 (32.6). 82/96 deaths (85.4%) among AC and 80/94 deaths (85.1%) among CC were liver related. Multivariate analysis showed age at diagnosis and Child’s class predicted overall survival among all groups. The median survival in Child’s class B and C were 53.5 and 25.3 months respectively. Survival was similar among AC and CC. Among AC survival was improved by abstinence [HR = 0.63 (95% CI: 0.40-1.00)] and was worse with diabetes [HR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.02- 2.48)] irrespective of alcohol status.ConclusionsThe overall survival of AC was similar to CC. Death in both groups were predominantly liver related, and was predicated by age at diagnosis and Child class. Among AC, presence of diabetes and non-abstinence from alcohol were independent predictors for poor survival.