A. Kazantzidis

Comparison of measured and modelled uv indices for the assessment of health risks

The World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have jointly recommended that the UV Index (UVI) should be used to inform the public about possible health risks due to overexposure to solar radiation, especially skin damage. To test the current operational status of measuring and modelling techniques used in providing the public with UVI information, this article compares cloudless sky UVIs (measured using five instruments at four locations with different latitudes and climate) with the results of 13 models used in UVI forecasting schemes. For the models, only location, total ozone and solar zenith angle were provided as input parameters. In many cases the agreement is acceptable, i.e. less than 0.5 UVI. Larger differences may originate from instrumental errors and shortcomings in the models and their input parameters. A possible explanation for the differences between models is the treatment of the unknown input parameters, especially aerosols. Copyright

Seasonal changes in vitamin D-effective UVB availability in Europe and associations with population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D

Low vitamin D status is common in Europe. The major source of vitamin D in humans is ultraviolet B (UVB)-induced dermal synthesis of cholecalciferol, whereas food sources are believed to play a lesser role. Our objectives were to assess UVB availability (Jm−2) across several European locations ranging from 35° N to 69° N, and compare these UVB data with representative population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) data from Ireland (51–54° N), Iceland (64° N) and Norway (69° N), as exemplars. Vitamin D-effective UVB availability was modelled for nine European countries/regions using a validated UV irradiance model. Standardized serum 25(OH)D data was accessed from the EC-funded ODIN project. The results showed that UVB availability decreased with increasing latitude (from 35° N to 69° N), while all locations exhibited significant seasonal variation in UVB. The UVB data suggested that the duration of vitamin D winters ranged from none (at 35° N) to eight months (at 69° N). The large seasonal fluctuations in serum 25(OH)D in Irish adults was much dampened in Norwegian and Icelandic adults, despite considerably lower UVB availability at these northern latitudes but with much higher vitamin D intakes. In conclusion, increasing the vitamin D intake can ameliorate the impact of low UVB availability on serum 25(OH)D status in Europe.

Measuring Spectral Actinic Flux and Irradiance: Experimental Results from the Actinic Flux Determination from Measurements of Irradiance (ADMIRA) Project

Abstract Results are presented from the Actinic Flux Determination from Measurements of Irradiance (ADMIRA) campaign to measure spectral global UV irradiance and actinic flux at the ground, beneath an atmosphere well defined by supporting measurements. Actinic flux is required to calculate photolysis rates for atmospheric chemistry, yet most spectral UV measurements are of irradiance. This work represents the first part of a project to provide algorithms for converting irradiances to actinic fluxes with specified uncertainties. The campaign took place in northern Greece in August 2000 and provided an intercomparison of UV spectroradiometers measuring different radiation parameters, as well as a comprehensive radiation and atmospheric dataset. The independently calibrated spectroradiometers measuring irradiance and actinic flux agreed to within 5%, while measurements of spectral direct irradiance differed by 9%. Relative agreement for all parameters proved to be very stable during the campaign. A polarizat...

Cloud observations in Switzerland using hemispherical sky cameras

We present observations of total cloud cover and cloud type classification results from a sky camera network comprising four stations in Switzerland. In a comprehensive intercomparison study, records of total cloud cover from the sky camera, long-wave radiation observations, Meteosat, ceilometer, and visual observations were compared. Total cloud cover from the sky camera was in 65–85% of cases within ±1 okta with respect to the other methods. The sky camera overestimates cloudiness with respect to the other automatic techniques on average by up to 1.1 ± 2.8 oktas but underestimates it by 0.8 ± 1.9 oktas compared to the human observer. However, the bias depends on the cloudiness and therefore needs to be considered when records from various observational techniques are being homogenized. Cloud type classification was conducted using the k-Nearest Neighbor classifier in combination with a set of color and textural features. In addition, a radiative feature was introduced which improved the discrimination by up to 10%. The performance of the algorithm mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions, site-specific characteristics, the randomness of the selected images, and possible visual misclassifications: The mean success rate was 80–90% when the image only contained a single cloud class but dropped to 50–70% if the test images were completely randomly selected and multiple cloud classes occurred in the images.

Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol—Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate-Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk “AMOUR” is applied to output from two chemistry‐climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the “World Avoided,” excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C‐A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super‐recover at the end of the century. When compared with a “No Depletion” scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the “Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol” scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100–150, Congo: −10–0, Patagonia: 20–50, Western Europe: 30–40, China: 90–120, South‐West USA: 80–110, Mediterranean: 90–100 and North‐East Australia: 170–200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year.

Comparison of Model Calculations with Spectral UV Measurements during the SUSPEN Campaign: The Effect of Aerosols

Spectral measurements of global solar irradiance, obtained under cloud-free conditions during the SUSPEN campaign (July 1997) in Thessaloniki, Greece, are compared with radiative transfer model calculations, showing an agreement to within 65% for wavelengths higher that 305 nm. The uncertainties in the modeled spectra were analyzed with respect to the aerosol-related model input parameters (single-scattering albedo and asymmetry factor), which were not derivable from measurements. A range of single-scattering albedo values was used to investigate its impact on surface UV irradiance through comparison of measurements with model calculations. It was found that a difference in the single-scattering albedo of 0.1 changes the model‐measurement ratio by 7%‐14%, depending on solar zenith angle. Finally, an attempt was made to relate the estimated values of singlescattering albedo to wind direction and relative humidity, which control the origin and type of the aerosols in the area.

Modelling solar UV radiation in the past: comparison of algorithms and input data

The objectives of the COST action 726 are to establish long-term changes of UV-radiation in the past, which can only be derived by modelling with good and available proxy data. To find the best available models and input data, 16 models have been tested by modelling daily doses for two years of data measured at four stations distributed over Europe. The modelled data have been compared with the measured data, using different statistical methods. Models that use Cloud Modification Factors for the UV spectral range, derived from co-located measured global irradiance, give the best results.

A modeling approach to determine how much UV radiation is available across the UK and Ireland for health risk and benefit studies

A detailed map of the available UV across the UK from 2003 to 2012 is provided. A suite of data derived from climatologies and satellite observations are used to calculate spectral UV irradiance and related weighted doses (erythema, DNA damage, vitamin D). The result is a well-validated tool that has two advantages: (i) the output is simulated spectral UV irradiance that can be weighted with any action spectrum for use in any research studies that require ambient UV data, (ii) reliance on instruments with planned operational lives of at least several years that ensures data and method homogeneity for extension to future studies. The model-derived doses are satisfactory validated against spectral ground-based measurements at two sites. According to the calculated climatology, the southern part of the UK receives 1.5-2 times more UV than the north during spring, summer and autumn. During wintertime, the UV doses in the far north are an order of magnitude lower than southern values. Even for the same latitude, regional variations of cloudiness result in doses at coastal sites being up to 25% higher than inland areas.

An Integrated Predictive Model of Population Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D for Application in Strategy Development for Vitamin D Deficiency Prevention

BACKGROUND To enable food-based strategies for the prevention of vitamin D deficiency to be evidence-based, there is a need to develop integrated predictive models of population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] that are responsive to both solar and dietary inputs of vitamin D. OBJECTIVES The objectives of this work were to develop and validate an integrated mathematical model with the use of data on UVB availability, exposure, and dietary intake to predict serum 25(OH)D concentrations in a nationally representative sample of adults, and then test the models performance with the use of 3 hypothetical fortification scenarios as exemplars. METHODS Data on UVB availability and hours of sunlight in Ireland were used in a mathematical model to predict serum 25(OH)D in Irish adults aged 18-64 y. An equation from our dose-related vitamin D supplementation trial in adults was developed and integrated into the model, which allowed us to predict the impact of changes in dietary vitamin D on the contribution to annual serum 25(OH)D concentrations, accounting for seasonality of UVB availability. Recently published estimates of the impact of 3 vitamin D food fortification scenarios on vitamin D intake in a representative sample of Irish adults were used in the model as a test. RESULTS The UVB- and vitamin D intake-serum 25(OH)D components of the integrated model were both validated with the use of independent data. The model predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] in the adult population during an extended winter period was 18.1% (vs. 18.6% measured), which could be reduced in a stepwise manner with the incorporation of an increased number of vitamin D-fortified foods, down to 6.6% with the inclusion of enhanced fortified dairy-related products, fat spreads, fruit juice and drinks, and cereal products. CONCLUSION Mathematical models have the ability to inform how vitamin D food fortification in various constructs may affect population serum 25(OH)D concentrations and the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Variability of Cloud-free Ultraviolet Dose Rates on Global Scale Due to Modeled Scenarios of Future Ozone Recovery

Simulations of the total ozone content and vertical ozone and temperature profiles during the period 1980–2080 from three chemistry climate models (CCMs) were used and the future variability of five UV dose rate types in global scale was simulated. For each CCM, radiative transfer calculations for cloud‐free skies and constant values of aerosol optical properties and surface reflectivity were performed and the percentage difference, relative to the mean over the period 1996–2005, was calculated. The potential biological consequences of ozone recovery are quantified due to the different influence of ozone‐absorbing wavelengths on the selected UV action spectra: average percentage differences between a few and 60% are revealed during the 2070s, depending on the latitude zone and the season. Although the research into the prediction of UV radiation levels is ongoing, due to the possible future changes in cloudiness, aerosols or surface reflectivity, the long‐term changes in ozone, as projected by the CCMs in a similar way, will affect strongly some of the selected UV dose rates in the future.