A. Khalik Salman

Estimating tourist demand through cointegration analysis: Swedish data.

The purpose of this paper is to use co-integration analysis to estimate the long-run relationship between monthly tourist flows to Sweden from American, European and Scandinavian countries. Also, the factors that influence arrivals, such as income, price, exchange rate, the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the 1991 Gulf War are estimated. An econometric model approach of cointegration analysis is adopted to estimate the effect of the above factors on the number of visitors to Sweden and the area No.6 in Sweden (SW:6). Monthly time-series data for the period 1980-1998 were used. The estimated model does not indicate any statistically significant effect of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, or the 1991 Gulf War on international tourism demand. On the other hand, the estimated model does indicate statistically significant effect of income, exchange rate and the consumer price index (CPI) on international tourism demand. The estimation and diagnostic testing strategy supports the specification of the model.

Testing for Granger causality between industrial output and CPI in the presence of regime shift: Swedish data

In this paper, we focus on the Granger causality test in the presence of regime shift. We apply a vector autoregressive (4) model on Swedish series of industrial output and consumer price index for the period 1980:1‐1998:6. To test for causality, three different test methods namely the single equation Likelihood Ratio test, the systemwise Raos F‐ test and the Bootstrap test, have been used in this study. We show that when the assumption of parameter constancy is violated, due to the occurrence of the structural changes, Granger causality tests can provide misleading inference about the underlining relationship of causality.

Comparison of Econometric Modelling of Demand for Domestic and International Tourism: Swedish Data

The purpose of this paper is to identify functions for the domestic and international demand for tourism in the objective 6 region in Sweden (SW:6), in order to understand how tourism demand relates to the key macroeconomic variables and other variables such as real income, nominal and real exchange rate, price level and the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. An econometrics model is used to estimate the domestic tourism demand in SW:6. Monthly data for the period 1980–1998 are used. The results do not indicate any statistically significant effect of income, exchange rate or the Chernobyl nuclear disaster on the domestic tourism demand. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) and weather condition variables are found to have a rather significant effect on the domestic tourism demand. In this paper we also use a cointegration analysis to estimate the long-term relationship between monthly flows to SW:6 from the USA, the UK, Germany, Finland, Norway and Denmark, and factors such as income, CPI and exchange rate that influence arrivals. Monthly time series data for the period 1980–1998 are also used for this purpose. The estimated model does not indicate any statistically significant effect of the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the Gulf war on international tourism demand; on the other hand, significant effects of income, exchange rate and CPI on international tourism demand are found. The estimation and diagnostic testing strategy supports the specification of both models. When comparing these two parts of the study, regarding the domestic demand for tourism, we found the CPI, lags of the dependent variable and several of the monthly dummy variables that stand for the seasonal effects, to have significant effects on the number of visitors. On the other hand, we find income, exchange and CPI have a great influence on international tourism demand.

Estimating the Swedish and Norwegian international tourism demand using (ISUR) technique

Abstract This paper estimates the demand for tourism to Sweden and Norway from five countries: Denmark, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For each visiting country, and for selected regions in Sweden and Norway, we specify separate equations by including relative information. We then estimate these equations using Zellner’s Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR). The benefit of this model is that the ISUR estimators utilize the information present in the error correlation of the cross regressions (or equations) and hence are more efficient than single equation estimation methods such as ordinary least squares. Monthly time series data from January 1993 to December 2006 are used. The results show that the consumer price index, some lagged dependent variables, and several monthly dummies (representing seasonal effects) have a significant impact on the number of visitors to the SW6 region in Sweden and Tröndelag in Norway. We also find that, in at least some cases, relative prices and exchange rates have a significant effect on international tourism demand.This paper estimates the demand for tourism to Sweden and Norway for five countries: Denmark, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For each visiting country, and for Sweden and Norway, we specify separate equations by including relative information. We then estimate these equations using Zellner’s Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR). The benefit of this model is that the ISUR estimators utilize the information present in the error correlation of the cross regressions (or equations) and hence are more efficient than single equation estimation methods such as ordinary least squares. Monthly time series data from 1993:01 to 2006:12 are used. The results show that the consumer price index, some lagged dependent variables, and several monthly dummies (representing seasonal effects) have a significant impact on the number of visitors to the SW6 region in Sweden and Trondelag in Norway. We also find that, in at least some cases, relative prices and exchange rates have a significant effect on international tourism demand.

Using the SUR model of tourism demand for neighbouring Regions in Sweden and Norway

This chapter estimates the international demand for tourism in two neighbouring regions: the objective number 6 (SW:6) in Sweden and North Norway included – Trondelag (NWT) in North Norway, from five different countries: Denmark, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For each visiting country, and for Sweden and Norway, we specify separate equations by including the relevant information. we then estimate these ten equations using Zellner’s Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR). The benefit of this model is that the ISUR estimators utilize the information within and the relation between the equations present in the error correlation of the cross regressions (or equations) and hence is more efficient than single equation estimation methods such as ordinary least squares. Monthly time series data from 1993:01 to 2006:12 are used. The results show that the consumer price index, some lagged dependent variables, and several monthly dummies (representing seasonal effects) have significant impacts on the number of visitors to the SW:6 region in Sweden and NWT region in Norway. We also find that, in at least some cases, relative prices and exchange rates have significant effects on international tourism demand. Tourism has important impacts on the economies of both developing and industrialized countries, resulting in job creation, additional income for the private and public sectors, foreign currency receipts, higher investment and growth. Indeed, tourism has acted as a catalyst to economic restructuring in many recipient countries, assisting a shift away from primary sector activities, towards greater reliance on services and manufacturing. Given the scale of tourism’s contribution to the macroeconomic dimension over time, knowledge concerning the nature of the demand upon which it is based is of both theoretical and practical relevance. It is well known that tourism demand is responsive to such variables as income, relative prices and exchange rates. What is not known is how the responsiveness of demand to changes in these variables alters during a country’s economic transition and integration into the wider world initial or subsequent years? Does the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in its own prices, or those of its competitors, change between different periods? Further questions concern the degrees of complementarity or substitutability between tourism destinations and the extent to which these change during periods of economic transition. Complementarity occurs if holidays in different destinations are purchased as a package. Alternatively, there may be an intense degree of competition between destinations. Relationships of complementarity or substitutability may change over