A. Ladikos

Exploring the Application of Actuarial Criminology in Southern Africa

In response to the declared intent of the White Paper on Corrections (Department of Corrections, 2005) to transform prisons into needs-based centers of reform, the Self-appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) was used to explore its potential as a reliable and valid prediction scale for recidivism in the diverse cultural context of Southern Africa. A total of 269 incarcerated males agreed to be anonymously assessed. Furthermore, 38 offenders with a history of maladjustment and disciplinary problems were identified for comparison. An alpha score of.90 as well as moderate to high or high to excellent coefficient alphas for six out of the seven subscales confirm the SAQ to be a reliable assessment instrument within the Southern African context. All correlation coefficients (criminal tendencies, antisocial personality problems, conduct problems, criminal history, alcohol and drug abuse, antisocial associates and anger) also measured significantly at the 0.01 level while the scores of the 38 isolated cases suggested higher scores in relation to conduct disorder, antisocial personality trends, anger and consequently criminal history.

Actuarial Criminology: Meeting Current Challenges in Southern Africa

South African prisons were overcrowded by more than sixty-three percent in 2005. Overcrowding and poor prison conditions have enormous implications for rehabilitation efforts made by the South African Department of Correctional Services. The South African White Paper on Corrections (2005) commits the Department of Correctional Services to provide needs-based rehabilitation processes and a framework of continuous evaluation to measure the impact and success of such processes. It also acknowledges that monitoring the rates of recidivism is a critical indicator of the success, the effectiveness of needs-based rehabilitation, and improved service. A reliable system for monitoring recidivism will have to be developed and put in place. In this respect, actuarial criminology can make a vital contribution. This article poses a strategic alternative to the correctional industry in Southern Africa that can be used for the realization of correctional ideals, especially where retribution and overcrowding are still the main features of correctional institutions.