A. M. Perez

Social network analysis. Review of general concepts and use in preventive veterinary medicine.

Social network analysis (SNA) and graph theory have been used widely in sociology, psychology, anthropology, biology and medicine. Social network analysis and graph theory provide a conceptual framework to study contact patterns and to identify units of analysis that are frequently or intensely connected within the network. Social network analysis has been used in human epidemiology as a tool to explore the potential transmission of infectious agents such as HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis B and syphilis. In preventive veterinary medicine, SNA is an approach that offers benefits for exploring the nature and extent of the contacts between animals or farms, which ultimately leads to a better understanding of the potential risk for disease spread in a susceptible population. Social network analysis, however, has been applied only recently in preventive veterinary medicine, therefore the characteristics of the technique and the potential benefits of its use remain unknown for an important section of the international veterinary medicine community. The objectives of this paper were to review the concepts and theoretical aspects underlying the use of SNA and graph theory, with particular emphasis on their application to the study of infectious diseases of animals. The paper includes a review of recent applications of SNA in preventive veterinary medicine and a discussion of the potential uses and limitations of this methodology for the study of animal diseases.

Combined application of social network and cluster detection analyses for temporal-spatial characterization of animal movements in Salamanca, Spain.

Social network analysis was used in combination with techniques for detection of temporal-spatial clusters to identify operations at high risk of receiving or dispatching pigs, from January through December 2005, in the Spanish province of Salamanca. The temporal-spatial structure of the network was explicitly analyzed to estimate the statistical significance of observed clusters. Significant (P<0.01) temporal-spatial clusters identified were grouped into two compartments based on the nature and extent of the contacts among operations within the clusters. One of the compartments was identified from January through April, included a high proportion of extensive farms (0.39), and was likely to be related with the production and trade of Iberian pigs. The other compartment encompassed a smaller proportion of extensive farms (0.11: P<0.01), took place from May through December, and was probably related to intensive production systems. Analysis of a sub-section of the network, which was selected based on the administrative division of Spain, yielded to the identification of a different set of clusters, showing that results of social network analysis may be sensitive to the extension of the information used in the analysis. The approach presented here will be useful for the implementation of differential surveillance, prevention, and control strategies at specific times and locations, which will aid in the optimization of human and financial resources.

Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals

Spain has been a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free country since 1986. However, the FMD epidemics that recently affected several European Union (EU) member countries demonstrated that the continent is still at high risk for FMD virus (FMDV) introduction, and that the potential consequences of those epidemics are socially and financially devastating. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the risk of FMDV introduction into Spain. Results suggest that provinces in north-eastern Spain are at higher risk for FMDV introduction, that an FMD epidemic in Spain is more likely to occur via the import of pigs than through the import of cattle, sheep, or goats, and that a sixfold increase in the proportion of premises that quarantine pigs prior to their introduction into the operation will reduce the probability of FMDV introduction via import of live pigs into Spain by 50%. Allocation of resources towards surveillance activities in regions and types of operations at high risk for FMDV introduction and into the development of policies to promote quarantine and other biosecurity activities in susceptible operations will decrease the probability of FMD introduction into the country and will strengthen the chances of success of the Spanish FMD prevention program.

Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: An example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation

When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for diagnosing country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain

A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2-1099), 164 (4-1302), and 334 (31-2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1km and <3km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value<0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain.

Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions

The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value<0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a catastrophic situation. A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value<0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value<0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.

Temporospatial clustering of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Israel and Palestine, 2006-2007.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic to the Middle East and there is a perception that political instability and limited resources have led to the uncontrolled circulation of FMD virus throughout the region. Certain aspects of FMD epidemiology in the Middle East remain unknown. The goal of this study was to identify the geographical location, temporal extent and direction of spread of clusters of 70 FMD outbreaks reported in Israel and Palestine from February 4, 2006, through July 15, 2007. The space-time permutation model of the scan statistic test detected nine significant (P < 0.1) clusters. Significant (P < 0.05) direction of spread was identified in four of the nine clusters. The Gaza Strip, where no outbreaks were reported, or a nearby location, seemed to be the origin of a cluster of outbreaks located in Hadarom (April 2007); a cluster of outbreaks centered in West Bank (February 2006) may be linked with spread from Northern Israel; a cluster in Hazafon (January 2007) seemed to have originated from nearby the Jordan borders; and a cluster located in Northern Hazafon was likely related to areas next to the Lebanon and Syrian borders. The association between the clusters in West Bank and earlier Israeli samples and between the cluster in Hazafon and Jordan was also supported (P < 0.05) by phylogenetic analysis of samples collected from the outbreaks. These results suggest that the FMD outbreaks reported in Israel and Palestine in 2006 and 2007 were likely a consequence of different epidemics associated with the circulation and spread of FMD virus strains from different regions of the Middle East.

Factors Associated With Within-Herd Transmission of Serotype A Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cattle, During the 2001 Outbreak in Argentina: A Protective Effect of Vaccination

Argentina suffered an extensive foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic between July 2000 and January 2002, 3 months after obtaining the official FMD-free without vaccination status conferred by the World Organization for Animal Health. This is one of the largest FMD epidemics controlled by implementation of a systematic mass vaccination campaign in an FMD-free country. In 2000, 124 herds were reported as FMD positive, 2394 herds in 2001 and one in January 2002; the total number of cattle herds in the country at that time was approximately 230 000. Estimates of FMD transmission are important to understand the dynamics of disease spread and for estimating the value for the parameterization of disease transmission models, with the ultimate goals of predicting its spread, assessing and designing control strategies, conducting economic analyses and supporting the decision-making process. In this study, the within-herd coefficient of transmission, β, was computed for herds affected in the 2001 FMD epidemic and categorized as low or high based on the median value of β. A logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors significantly associated with high values of β. Results suggested that the odds of having a high within-herd transmission were significantly associated with time from initial herd infection to disease detection, date of report, vaccination, and time from initial herd infection to herd vaccination. Results presented in this study demonstrate, in quantifiable terms, the protective impact of vaccination in reducing FMD transmission in infected herds. These results will be useful for the parameterization of epidemiological models aimed at quantifying the impact of vaccination and for the design and implementation of FMD emergency vaccination strategies in face of an epidemic.

Identifying equine premises at high risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases using geo-statistical and space-time analyses

The identification of premises that may play an important role in the introduction or spread of animal diseases is fundamental to the development of risk-based surveillance and control programs. A combination of geo-statistical and cluster analysis methods was used to identify geographical areas and periods of time at highest risk for introduction of the African horse sickness virus (AHSV) into the Castile and Leon (CyL) region of Spain. Risk was estimated based on the predicted premises-specific abundance of Culicoides spp., a vector for AHSV, and on the frequency of equine introductions from outside regions. The largest abundance of Culicoides spp. was observed between May and September in the northern region of CyL. Six significant (P-value <0.01) space-time clusters of equine premises were found, at which presence of Culicoides spp. was predicted and live equidae were introduced from outside CyL. The clusters included 37 equine premises and took place between April and December. These results will contribute to updating plans for prevention of AHSV introduction and spread in Spain. The methodological approach developed here may be adapted and applied to design and establish risk-based surveillance and control programs for Spain and other European countries.

A multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru.

This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US