A. M. Ticlavilca

Real-time forecasting of short-term irrigation canal demands using a robust multivariate Bayesian learning model

In the lower Sevier River basin in Utah, the travel times between reservoir releases and arrival at irrigation canal diversions limit the reservoir operation in enabling delivery changes, which may not be compatible with the on demand schedule in the basin. This research presents a robust machine learning approach to forecast the short-term diversion demands for three irrigation canals. These real-time predictions can assist the operator to react promptly to short-term changes in demand and to properly release water from the reservoir. The models are developed in the form of a multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) that is based on a Bayesian learning machine approach for regression. Predictive confidence intervals can also be obtained from the model with this Bayesian approach. Test results show that the MVRVM learns the input–output patterns with good accuracy. A bootstrap analysis is used to evaluate robustness of model parameter estimation. The MVRVM is compared in terms of performance and robustness with an Artificial Neural Network.

Topsoil moisture estimation for precision agriculture using unmmaned aerial vehicle multispectral imagery

There is an increasing trend in crop production management decisions in precision agriculture based on observation of high resolution aerial images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Nevertheless, there are still limitations in terms of relating the spectral imagery information to the agricultural targets. AggieAir™ is a small, autonomous unmanned aircraft which carries multispectral cameras to capture aerial imagery during pre-programmed flights. AggieAir enables users to gather imagery at greater spatial and temporal resolution than most manned aircraft and satellite sources. The platform has been successfully used in support of a wide variety of water and natural resources management areas. This paper presents results of an on-going research in the application of the imagery from AggieAir in the remote sensing of top soil moisture estimations for a large field served by a center pivot sprinkler irrigation system.

Estimation of Spatially Distributed Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing and a Relevance Vector Machine

AbstractWith the development of surface energy balance analyses, remote sensing has become a spatially explicit and quantitative methodology for understanding evapotranspiration (ET), a critical requirement for water resources planning and management. Limited temporal resolution of satellite images and cloudy skies present major limitations that impede continuous estimates of ET. This study introduces a practical approach that overcomes (in part) the previous limitations by implementing machine learning techniques that are accurate and robust. The analysis was applied to the Canal B service area of the Delta Canal Company in central Utah using data from the 2009–2011 growing seasons. Actual ET was calculated by an algorithm using data from satellite images. A relevance vector machine (RVM), which is a sparse Bayesian regression, was used to build a spatial model for ET. The RVM was trained with a set of inputs consisting of vegetation indexes, crops, and weather data. ET estimated via the algorithm was us...

Machine Learning Approaches for Error Correction of Hydraulic Simulation Models for Canal Flow Schemes

AbstractModernization of today’s irrigation systems attempts to improve system efficiency and management effectiveness of every component of the system (reservoirs, canals, and gates) using automation technologies, along with hydraulic simulation models. The canal flow control scheme resulting from the coupling of the system automation and the simulation models has proven to be an excellent irrigation water management instrument around the world. Nevertheless, the harsh environment of irrigation systems can induce uncertainties or errors in the components of canal flow control that can worsen over time, misleading or confusing both human and computer controllers. These errors can be attributed to parameter measurement and conceptual sources, with the complexity of locating their individual origin. In this paper, a framework is presented to minimize the collective or aggregate error within an irrigation canal flow control scheme that uses a learning machine algorithm (multilayer perceptron and relevance ve...

Use of high-resolution multispectral imagery from an unmanned aerial vehicle in precision agriculture

Precision agriculture requires high spatial management of the inputs to agricultural production. This requires that actionable information about crop and field status be acquired at the same high spatial resolution and at a temporal frequency appropriate for timely responses. This paper presents some results from an on-going project to explore the use of imagery collected from the use of a small unmanned aerial vehicle, called AggieAir, to estimate plant nitrogen and chlorophyll at approximately 13-cm resolution for a field of oats served by a center pivot sprinkler system. When combined with appropriate analytic tools, the AggieAir imagery can be successfully used to estimate plant nitrogen and chlorophyll levels at much finer than 1-m resolution.