A. Özgüç

Time Distributions of Large and Small Sunspot Groups Over Four Solar Cycles

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.

Periodic behavior of solar flare index during solar cycles 20 and 21

Short-term periodicities of solar activity were studied with the flare index by using Discrete Fourier Transform for the time interval 1966–1986. Two noticeable periodicities (18.5 and 5 months) have been found. The existence of these periodicities comparing with the early findings is discussed.

Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 24

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent H analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report H = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number data set (1700-2007) and H = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in 2012 December at approximately 87 sunspot units.

Flare Index of Solar Cycle 22

A brief description and final results of the flare index (FI) of solar activity are given. The calculation of the daily flare index of cycle 22 was determined using the final grouped solar flare files from National Geophysical Data Center A. The final data of FI are presented in graphical form over cycle 22. Daily calculated values are available for general use in Kandilli Observatorys and NGDCs anonymous ftp servers. The pattern of similar activity indices that arise under different physical conditions during cycle 22 are compared with the flare index. The north – south asymmetry in the daily flare index data was studied.

MAXIMUM CORONAL MASS EJECTION SPEED AS AN INDICATOR OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

Effects of hysteresis in solar cycle variations between flare index and cosmic rays

Abstract We study the hysteresis effect between the solar flare index and cosmic ray intensity for the past 37 years from January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2001 on a daily basis. We show that smoothed time series of flare index and the daily Calgary Galactic Cosmic Ray intensity values exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the studied period. The shapes of these differences vary from cycle to cycle. So we investigate the momentary time lags between the two time series for the odd and even cycles.

Flare Index During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 23

A brief description and results of the flare index (FI) as a measure of solar activity for cycle 23 are given. The calculation of the daily flare index was determined using the final solar flare tables from the National Geophysical Data Center A. The final data of FI are presented in graphical form over the rising activity phase of solar cycle 23. Daily calculated values are available for general use in Kandilli observatorys and NGDCs anonymous ftp servers. The pattern of similar activity indices that arise under different physical conditions during the rising activity phase are compared with the flare index. The north-south asymmetry in the daily flare index data was studied.

North-south asymmetries in the green corona brightness between 1947 and 1976

The north-south asymmetry has been studied using the green emission corona brightness in the period of 1947–1976. (N - S)/(N + S) values are constructed with the 5-deg opposite coronal belts brightnesses between ± 5 and ± 60 deg. Power spectra analyses were performed to study periodicities of these (N - S)/(N + S) values. Two noticeable periodicities (14.5 and 5 yr) have been found.

Intermediate-term periodicities in the green corona brightness of the Sun

We have analysed intermediate-term periodicities in the green corona by dividing 10° latitudinal belts for the solar cycles 18, 19, and 20 (1947–1976). Discrete Fourier transform technique was used and three noticeable periodicities (3.48, 2.57, and 2.27 years) were found. The physical origin of these periods is not known, but evidence in our results exclude the possibility that the observed periods are a harmonic due to the method of analyse. The period of 3.48-year is the strongest one. 17.6-month periodicity was found only on around +40° belt while 155-day periodicity was not found in our analysis.

Confirmation of the 25.5-day fundamental period of the Sun using the north-south asymmetry of the flare index

Short-term periodicities of solar activity were studied. To perform the study, a north-south asymmetry time series was constructed by using the northern and the southern hemisphere flare index values for solar cycle 22. The statistical significance of this time series was calculated. It indicates that in most of cases the asymmetry is highly significant during cycle 22. Power spectral analysis of this time series reveals a periodicity around 25.5 days, which was announced before as a fundamental period of solar activity (Bai and Sturrock, 1991). To investigate the time agreement between the two hemispheres, the phase distribution was studied and a phase shift of about 0.5 was found. An activity trend from the north to the south was found.