A Phillips

The use of the Framingham equation to predict myocardial infarctions in HIV-infected patients: comparison with observed events in the D : A : D Study

The D:A:D (Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti‐HIV Drugs) Study, a prospective observational study on a cohort of 23 468 patients with HIV infection, indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART). However, it remains unclear whether the observed increase in the rate of MI in this population can be attributed to changes in conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

Objective:To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. Design:A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and north America on 20 379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. Methods:Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. Results:During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/μl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8–65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1–99% for AIDS or death and 1.3–96% for death alone. Conclusion:On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Serial CD4 lymphocyte counts and development of AIDS.

Low CD4 lymphocyte counts are associated with increased risk of progression to AIDS in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We investigated the extent to which the timing of progression to AIDS can be explained solely in terms of decline of the CD4 lymphocyte count in 111 haemophiliacs followed for up to 11 years since infection with HIV. A median of 10 CD4 lymphocyte counts were made per patient. By applying a simple linear model for the decline in CD4 lymphocyte counts over time, we estimated the date of development of AIDS in 96 patients who had at least 5 determinations. 84% (81 of 96) of patients were correctly classified as to development of AIDS before Jan 1, 1990 (p less than 0.0001), with this model. The results suggest that differences in the time at which patients with HIV will progress to AIDS can largely be explained by differences in rates of decline of CD4 lymphocyte counts.

Social class differences in ischaemic heart disease in British men.

To examine why ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in Britain are higher in manual than in non-manual workers 7735 middle-aged men in the British Regional Heart Study were followed up for 6 years, during which time 336 men experienced a major IHD event (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death). The prevalence rates of IHD at screening, were higher in manual workers. Also, the attack rate of major IHD events during follow-up was 44% higher in manual workers. Marked differences in cigarette smoking contributed substantially to the increased risk of IHD in manual workers, who also had higher levels of blood pressure, were more obese, and took much less physical activity in leisure time. Adjustment for differences in these risk factors narrowed the gap between manual and non-manual workers in attack rates of IHD. Since the risk of IHD in Great Britain is high in all social classes, there would seem to be little justification for any overall policy for prevention of IHD to focus on social class. However, anti-smoking strategies might well take into account the social class differences described.

Risk factors for ischaemic heart disease: the prospective phase of the British Regional Heart Study.

Risk factors for major ischaemic heart disease (acute myocardial infarction or sudden death) have been investigated in a prospective study of 7735 men aged 40-59 years drawn from general practices in 24 British towns. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years, there have been 202 cases of major ischaemic heart disease. Univariate estimates of the risk of ischaemic heart disease show that serum total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, cigarette smoking, and body mass index are all associated with increased risk of ischaemic heart disease. Evidence of ischaemic heart disease at initial examination is also strongly associated with increased risk of subsequent ischaemic heart disease. All these factors were then considered simultaneously using multiple logistic models. Definite myocardial infarction on electrocardiogram and recall of a doctor diagnosis of ischaemic heart disease remained predictive of subsequent major ischaemic heart disease, after allowance for all other risk factors. Serum total cholesterol, blood pressure, and cigarette smoking each remained as highly significant independent risk factors whereas overweight, above average levels of HDL-cholesterol and serum triglyceride were not predictive of risk after allowance for the above factors. Men with and without pre-existing ischaemic heart disease were examined separately in the same way (using multiple logistic models). The strength of association between the principal risk factors and subsequent major ischaemic heart disease was reduced in the men with pre-existing ischaemic heart disease, only age and serum total cholesterol remaining highly significant. Overall the levels of the major risk factors commonly encountered in British men have a marked effect on the risk of ischaemic heart disease. Modification of these risk factors in the general population constitutes an important national priority.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis.

BACKGROUND Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Risk factors for stroke in middle aged British men.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the risk factors for stroke in a cohort representative of middle aged British men. DESIGN--Prospective study of a cohort of men followed up for eight years. SETTING--General practices in 24 towns in England, Wales, and Scotland (the British regional heart study). SUBJECTS--7735 men aged 40-59 at screening, selected at random from one general practice in each town. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Fatal and non-fatal strokes. RESULTS--110 of the men had at least one stroke; there were four times as many non-fatal as fatal strokes. The relative risk of stroke was 12.1 in men who had high blood pressure (systolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 160 mm Hg) and were current smokers compared with normotensive, non-smoking men. Diastolic blood pressure yielded no additional information, and former cigarette smokers had the same risk as men who had never smoked. Heavy alcohol intake was associated with a relative risk of stroke of 3.8 in men without previously diagnosed cardiovascular disease. Men with pre-existing ischaemic heart disease had an increased risk of stroke, but only when left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiography was also present. CONCLUSIONS--Systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, and left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiography in men with pre-existing ischaemic heart disease were found to be the major risk factors for stroke in middle aged British men. Heavy alcohol intake seemed to increase the risk of stroke in men without previously diagnosed cardiovascular disease. A large proportion of strokes should be preventable by controlling blood pressure and stopping smoking.

Heat-mediated immune complex dissociation and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay signal amplification render p24 antigen detection in plasma as sensitive as HIV-1 RNA detection by polymerase chain reaction

OBJECTIVE: To study the prevalence, incidence and predictive value for progression to AIDS of the HIV-1 syncytium-inducing (SI) phenotype in HIV-infected injecting drug users (IDU) compared with HIV-infected homosexual men. DESIGN: Two prospective cohort studies on HIV-1 infection among IDU and homosexual men. METHODS: HIV-infected IDU (n = 225) and homosexual men (n = 366) without AIDS were studied from March 1989 through December 1993. Data on laboratory markers, including the presence of SI variants, demographics, behavioural characteristics and clinical events were collected at every visit. RESULTS: At baseline, SI variants were detected in 4% of IDU and 17% of homosexual men. During the study period 18 IDU and 68 homosexual men switched from non-SI to SI phenotype (4-year cumulative incidence, 14.6 and 28.4%, respectively) before AIDS diagnosis. Among participants with a documented date of HIV infection the cumulative incidence of SI was lower among IDU than homosexual men (4-year cumulative incidence, 6.2 and 20.7%, respectively). At AIDS diagnosis, 21% of all AIDS cases among IDU had the SI phenotype compared with 54% among homosexual men. In both risk groups an accelerated CD4 decline was found after the non-SI-to-SI switch. The SI phenotype appeared to be a predictor of AIDS (multivariate relative hazard, 5.33), independent of CD4 cell count and p24 antigen at baseline. In the multivariate time-dependent analysis, the relative hazard of SI phenotype decreased considerably, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the effect of SI phenotype on progression to AIDS is mediated by CD4 cell count. CONCLUSION: The SI phenotype is associated with accelerated CD4 decline and progression to AIDS in both risk groups. The remarkable lower prevalence and incidence of the SI phenotype among IDU may implicate a difference in pathogenesis and natural history of HIV infection linked to transmission group.

Determinants of sustainable CD4 lymphocyte count increases in response to antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE HIV-induced CD4 lymphocyte depletion is partially reversed by antiretroviral therapy but it is unclear if the degree to which the CD4 count rises depends on viral suppression (if so, the extent of viral suppression required to achieve a maximal CD4 count rise), whether the rise is sustainable and whether it occurs in patients with CD4 count <10 x 10(6) cells/l. We aimed to address these issues. METHODS We studied CD4 count and plasma HIV RNA values every 4 weeks for 72 weeks in 154 patients starting indinavir-containing regimens. RESULTS Mean baseline HIV RNA and CD4 count were 4.8 log10 copies/ml and 180 x 10(6) cells/l, respectively. Overall, there was a mean increase in CD4 count of 143 x 10(6) cells/l by 72 weeks. The adjusted mean increase (adjusted for initial viral load, CD4 count and age) was strongly related to the mean viral suppression over the follow-up period (P < 0.0001). Importantly, there was a highly significant difference (P = 0.0004) in the rise in CD4 count between those with 2-3 log suppression (161 x 10(6) cells/l) and those with > 3 log suppression (314 x 10(6) cells/l; mean 3.6 log suppression in this group), suggesting that with even greater suppression the rise in CD4 lymphocytes may be still larger. We also studied whether CD4 counts were still rising after 72 weeks in patients with sustained suppression of at least 3 log in viral load. There was a significant (P = 0.004; paired t-test) rise in count of 43 x 10(6) cells/l between weeks 64 and 72 in these patients, suggesting that regeneration continues at least up to 72 weeks after therapy, provided virus replication continues to be suppressed. Patients with initial CD4 counts < 10 x 10(6) cells/l experienced no smaller rises than those at higher levels, even after adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSION These results strongly support a direct causal relationship between HIV replication and CD4 lymphocyte count depletion. The rise in those with > 3 log suppression provides the best available indicator of the potential for natural CD4 regeneration in HIV-infected patients. However, since still greater CD4 count rises may be seen with more suppressive regimens, it may not be possible to study the intrinsic CD4 regenerative capacity until such regimens are available.

Concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and total cholesterol in ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the roles of serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides in predicting major ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN--Men recruited for the British regional heart study followed up for a mean of 7.5 years. SETTING--General practices in 24 British towns. PATIENTS--7735 Middle aged men. END POINT--Predictive value of serum concentrations of lipids. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--At initial screening serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were determined from non-fasting blood samples. Altogether 443 major ischaemic heart disease events (fatal and non-fatal) occurred during the study. Men in the highest fifth of the distribution of total cholesterol concentration (greater than or equal to 7.2 mmol/l) had 3.5 times the risk of ischaemic heart disease than did men in the lowest fifth (less than 5.5 mmol/l) after adjustment for high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and other risk factors. Men in the lowest fifth of high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration (less than 0.93 mmol/l) had 2.0 times the risk of men in the highest fifth (greater than or equal to 1.33 mmol/l) after adjustment for total cholesterol concentration and other risk factors. Men in the highest fifth of triglyceride concentration (greater than or equal to 2.8 mmol/l) had only 1.3 times the risk of those in the lowest fifth (less than 1.08 mmol/l) after adjustment for total cholesterol concentration and other risk factors; additional adjustment for high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration made the association with ischaemic heart disease disappear. CONCLUSIONS--Serum concentration of total cholesterol is the most important single blood lipid risk factor for ischaemic heart disease in men. High density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration is less important, and triglyceride concentrations do not have predictive importance once other risk factors have been taken into account.