A. R. Yeates

Exploring the physical basis of solar cycle predictions : flux transport dynamics and persistence of memory in advection versus diffusion-dominated solar convection zones.

The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay that it introduces, specifically in the so-called Babcock-Leighton models of the solar cycle with spatially segregated source regions for the α- and Ω-effects, play a crucial rule in this predictability. Through dynamo simulations with such a model, we study the physical basis of solar cycle predictions by examining two contrasting regimes, one dominated by diffusive magnetic flux transport in the solar convection zone, the other dominated by advective flux transport by meridional circulation. Our analysis shows that diffusion plays an important role in flux transport, even when the solar cycle period is governed by the meridional flow speed. We further examine the persistence of memory of past cycles in the advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes through stochastically forced dynamo simulations. We find that in the advection-dominated regime this memory persists for up to three cycles, whereas in the diffusion-dominated regime this memory persists for mainly one cycle. This indicates that solar cycle predictions based on these two different regimes would have to rely on fundamentally different inputs, which may be the cause of conflicting predictions. Our simulations also show that the observed solar cycle amplitude-period relationship arises more naturally in the diffusion-dominated regime, thereby supporting those dynamo models in which diffusive flux transport plays a dominant role in the solar convection zone.

The Sun's Global Photospheric and Coronal Magnetic Fields: Observations and Models

In this review, our present day understanding of the Sun’s global photospheric and coronal magnetic fields is discussed from both observational and theoretical viewpoints. Firstly, the large-scale properties of photospheric magnetic fields are described, along with recent advances in photospheric magnetic flux transport models. Following this, the wide variety of theoretical models used to simulate global coronal magnetic fields are described. From this, the combined application of both magnetic flux transport simulations and coronal modeling techniques to describe the phenomena of coronal holes, the Sun’s open magnetic flux and the hemispheric pattern of solar filaments is discussed. Finally, recent advances in non-eruptive global MHD models are described. While the review focuses mainly on solar magnetic fields, recent advances in measuring and modeling stellar magnetic fields are described where appropriate. In the final section key areas of future research are identified.

Modelling the Global Solar Corona II: Coronal Evolution and Filament Chirality Comparison

Abstract This paper considers the hemispheric pattern of solar filaments using newly developed simulations of the real photospheric and 3D coronal magnetic fields over a six-month period, on a global scale. The magnetic field direction in the simulation is compared directly with the chirality of observed filaments, at their observed locations. In our model the coronal field evolves through a continuous sequence of nonlinear force-free equilibria, in response to the changing photospheric boundary conditions and the emergence of new magnetic flux. In total 119 magnetic bipoles with properties matching observed active regions are inserted. These bipoles emerge twisted and inject magnetic helicity into the solar atmosphere. When we choose the sign of this active-region helicity to match that observed in each hemisphere, the model produces the correct chirality for up to 96% of filaments, including exceptions to the hemispheric pattern. If the emerging bipoles have zero helicity, or helicity of the opposite sign, then this percentage is much reduced. In addition, the simulation produces a higher proportion of filaments with the correct chirality after longer times. This indicates that a key element in the evolution of the coronal field is its long-term memory, and the build-up and transport of helicity from low to high latitudes over many months. It highlights the importance of continuous evolution of the coronal field, rather than independent extrapolations at different times. This has significant consequences for future modelling such as that related to the origin and development of coronal mass ejections.

Initiation of Coronal Mass Ejections in a Global Evolution Model

Loss of equilibrium of magnetic flux ropes is a leading candidate for the origin of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The aim of this paper is to explore to what extent this mechanism can account for the initiation of CMEs in the global context. A simplified MHD model for the global coronal magnetic field evolution in response to flux emergence and shearing by large-scale surface motions is described and motivated. Using automated algorithms for detecting flux ropes and ejections in the global magnetic model, the effects of key simulation parameters on the formation of flux ropes and the number of ejections are considered, over a 177 day period in 1999. These key parameters include the magnitude and sign of magnetic helicity emerging in active regions, and coronal diffusion. The number of flux ropes found in the simulation at any one time fluctuates between about 28 and 48, sustained by the emergence of new bipolar regions, but with no systematic dependence on the helicity of these regions. However, the emerging helicity does affect the rate of flux rope ejections, which doubles from 0.67 per day if the bipoles emerge untwisted to 1.28 per day in the run with greatest emerging twist. The number of ejections in the simulation is also increased by 20%-30% by choosing the majority sign of emerging bipole helicity in each hemisphere, or by halving the turbulent diffusivity in the corona. For reasonable parameter choices, the model produces approximately 50% of the observed CME rate. This indicates that the formation and loss of equilibrium of flux ropes may be a key element in explaining a significant fraction of observed CMEs.

Topological constraints on magnetic relaxation.

The final state of turbulent magnetic relaxation in a reversed field pinch is well explained by Taylors hypothesis. However, recent resistive-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the relaxation of braided solar coronal loops have led to relaxed fields far from the Taylor state, despite the conservation of helicity. We point out the existence of an additional topological invariant in any flux tube with a nonzero field: the topological degree of the field line mapping. We conjecture that this constrains the relaxation, explaining why only one of three example simulations reaches the Taylor state.

A DOUBLE-RING ALGORITHM FOR MODELING SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS: UNIFYING KINEMATIC DYNAMO MODELS AND SURFACE FLUX-TRANSPORT SIMULATIONS

The emergence of tilted bipolar active regions (ARs) and the dispersal of their flux, mediated via processes such as diffusion, differential rotation, and meridional circulation, is believed to be responsible for the reversal of the Suns polar field. This process (commonly known as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism) is usually modeled as a near-surface, spatially distributed α-effect in kinematic mean-field dynamo models. However, this formulation leads to a relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed which is opposite to that suggested by physical insight and predicted by surface flux-transport simulations. With this in mind, we present an improved double-ring algorithm for modeling the Babcock-Leighton mechanism based on AR eruption, within the framework of an axisymmetric dynamo model. Using surface flux-transport simulations, we first show that an axisymmetric formulation—which is usually invoked in kinematic dynamo models—can reasonably approximate the surface flux dynamics. Finally, we demonstrate that our treatment of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism through double-ring eruption leads to an inverse relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed as expected, reconciling the discrepancy between surface flux-transport simulations and kinematic dynamo models.The turbulent magnetic diffusivity in the solar convection zone is one of the most poorly constrained ingredients of mean-field dynamo models. This lack of constraint has previously led to controversy regarding the most appropriate set of parameters, as different assumptions on the value of turbulent diffusivity lead to radically different solar cycle predictions. Typically, the dynamo community uses double step diffusivity profiles characterized by low values of diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone. However, these low diffusivity values are not consistent with theoretical estimates based on mixing-length theory -- which suggest much higher values for turbulent diffusivity. To make matters worse, kinematic dynamo simulations cannot yield sustainable magnetic cycles using these theoretical estimates. In this work we show that magnetic cycles become viable if we combine the theoretically estimated diffusivity profile with magnetic quenching of the diffusivity. Furthermore, we find that the main features of this solution can be reproduced by a dynamo simulation using a prescribed (kinematic) diffusivity profile that is based on the spatiotemporal geometric-average of the dynamically quenched diffusivity. Here, we provide an analytic fit to the dynamically quenched diffusivity profile, which can be used in kinematic dynamo simulations. Having successfully reconciled the mixing-length theory estimated diffusivity profile with kinematic dynamo models, we argue that they remain a viable tool for understanding the solar magnetic cycle.

PATHWAYS OF LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC COUPLINGS BETWEEN SOLAR CORONAL EVENTS

The high-cadence, comprehensive view of the solar corona by SDO/AIA shows many events that are widely separated in space while occurring close together in time. In some cases, sets of coronal events are evidently causally related, while in many other instances indirect evidence can be found. We present case studies to highlight a variety of coupling processes involved in coronal events. We find that physical linkages between events do occur, but concur with earlier studies that these couplings appear to be crucial to understanding the initiation of major eruptive or explosive phenomena relatively infrequently. We note that the post-eruption reconfiguration timescale of the large-scale corona, estimated from the extreme-ultraviolet afterglow, is on average longer than the mean time between coronal mass ejections (CMEs), so that many CMEs originate from a corona that is still adjusting from a previous event. We argue that the coronal field is intrinsically global: current systems build up over days to months, the relaxation after eruptions continues over many hours, and evolving connections easily span much of a hemisphere. This needs to be reflected in our modeling of the connections from the solar surface into the heliosphere to properly model the solar wind, its perturbations, and the generation and propagation of solar energetic particles. However, the large-scale field cannot be constructed reliably by currently available observational resources. We assess the potential of high-quality observations from beyond Earths perspective and advanced global modeling to understand the couplings between coronal events in the context of CMEs and solar energetic particle events.

Chirality of High-latitude Filaments over Solar Cycle 23

A non-potential quasi-static evolution model coupling the Suns photospheric and coronal magnetic fields is applied to the problem of filament chirality at high latitudes. For the first time, we run a continuous 15 year simulation, using bipolar active regions determined from US National Solar Observatory, Kitt Peak magnetograms between 1996 and 2011. Using this simulation, we are able to address the outstanding question of whether magnetic helicity transport from active latitudes can overcome the effect of differential rotation at higher latitudes. Acting alone, differential rotation would produce high-latitude filaments with opposite chirality to the majority type in each hemisphere. We find that differential rotation can indeed lead to opposite chirality at high latitudes, but only for around 5?years of the solar cycle following the polar field reversal. At other times, including the rising phase, transport of magnetic helicity from lower latitudes overcomes the effect of in situ differential rotation, producing the majority chirality even on the polar crowns at polar field reversal. These simulation predictions will allow for future testing of the non-potential coronal model. The results indicate the importance of long-term memory and helicity transport from active latitudes when modeling the structure and topology of the coronal magnetic field at higher latitudes.

Evolution and Distribution of Current Helicity in Full-Sun Simulations

Current helicity quantifies the location of twisted and sheared nonpotential structures in a magnetic field. We simulate the evolution of magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere in response to flux emergence and shearing by photospheric motions. In our global-scale simulation over many solar rotations, the latitudinal distribution of current helicity develops a clear statistical pattern, matching the observed hemispheric sign at active latitudes. In agreement with observations, there is significant scatter and intermixing of both signs of helicity, where we find local values of current helicity density that are much higher than those predicted by linear force-free extrapolations. Forthcoming full-disk vector magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory will provide an ideal opportunity to test our theoretical results on the evolution and distribution of current helicity, both globally and in single active regions.

Kinematic active region formation in a three-dimensional solar dynamo model

We propose a phenomenological technique for modelling the emergence of active regions within a three-dimensional, kinematic dynamo framework. By imposing localized velocity perturbations, we create emergent flux tubes out of toroidal magnetic field at the base of the convection zone, leading to the eruption of active regions at the solar surface. The velocity perturbations are calibrated to reproduce observed active region properties (including the size and flux of active regions, and the distribution of tilt angle with latitude), resulting in a more consistent treatment of flux-tube emergence in kinematic dynamo models than artificial flux deposition. We demonstrate how this technique can be used to assimilate observations and drive a kinematic three-dimensional model, and use it to study the characteristics of active region emergence and decay as a source of poloidal field.We find that the poloidal components are strongest not at the solar surface, but in the middle convection zone, in contrast with the common assumption that the poloidal source is located near the solar surface. We also find that, while most of the energy is contained in the lower convection zone, there is a good correlation between the evolution of the surface and interior magnetic fields.