A.S. Fowkes

The value of travel time savings in evaluation

Values of travel time enter the appraisal scheme both as values for modelling and forecasting and as values for use within project evaluation. This paper considers whether and how travel time values should be used within evaluation. The basic theories of private and social travel time valuation are set out. Issues such as the valuation of working time savings, the case for segmenting values by journey purpose and length, sign and size of time savings and mode of travel, and the income elasticity of the value of time, are reviewed. Two of the main conclusions are that time is a scarce resource and should be valued but that direct use of willingness to pay values is inappropriate for social appraisal of projects. Some form of social weighting scheme is required.

Investigating the market for inter-modal freight technologies

Abstract Freight carried by rail has traditionally been mainly low value bulk commodities. The market for transport of such commodities appears at best static and is forming a smaller proportion of the total demand for freight transport. There is thus an urgent need for rail operators to develop practical and cost effective inter-modal systems, which offer high quality services to consignors of consumer goods whose premises are not usually connected to the rail network. Much long-haul traffic of this type is international. In continental Europe, a number of inter-modal technologies—including swapbodies and piggyback—have long been in use. Development of similar technologies for use within the more constrained loading gauge of Great Britain, has received a great boost from the impending opening of the Channel Tunnel. The alternative technologies are discussed, before turning to ways of stimating the market for them. A large part of the paper is devoted to reporting on a computerised survey using our LASP (Leeds Adaptive Stated Preference) technique. The reason for using hypothetical Stated Preference data is the inadequate nature and extent of data on actual choice decisions, particularly in circumstances in which confidential freight rates are individually negotiated and little general merchandise goes by rail. By bringing together the results of this survey with information on costs and quality of service, the likely future market for inter-modal freight technologies is assessed. It is seen that the potential for inter-modal services within Britain is very limited, although there should be a good opportunity on the major corridor from London to Scotland through the West Midlands and the North West. When the Channel Tunnel is opened, however, the potential for services between Britain and continental Europe will be enormous, provided that an adequate quality of service can be offered.

Understanding trends in inter‐city rail traffic in Great Britain

This paper presents the results of an analysis of British Rail ticket sales data on routes linking the main conurbations over the years 1972–1981. It is seen that experience varies substantially across the sector. Provincial routes of less than 100 miles have experienced the greatest decline, but at the same time they exhibit the lowest fares elasticity. Longer routes to London have a somewhat higher fares elasticity and are particularly sensitive to the state of the economy; they have however enjoyed the traffic growth stimulated by the introduction of the High Speed Train. Longer provincial routes, which are dominated by leisure traffic, have the highest fares elasticities, and are probably damaged rather than helped by rising prosperity through the effect on car ownership.

Disaggregate and aggregate car ownership forecasting in Great Britain

Abstract The first part of this paper argues that the variable ‘cars per household’, as well as the proportion of households owning more than a given number of cars, should be modelled by sigmoid functions with finite saturation levels. Next, a summary and critique of the work of the Regional Highway Traffic Model, group is presented. Problems relating to choice of functional form, interaction of effects, and the usefulness of the explanatory variable ‘Car Purchasing Income’ are discussed. This leads to an analysis of the concept of a saturation level, with a caution against using external data to determine it when the true functional form of the car ownership growth path is unknown. Following this, Transport and Road Research Laboratory work is discussed and its limitations highlighted. Data for the period 1953–1974 is reworked yielding the conclusion that there is no evidence that growth in this period has been non-logistic. This implies that previous overpredictions by TRRL were due to incorrect parameter estimates, rather than the choice of the wrong model form.

A short-cut method for strategy optimisation using strategic transport models

This paper describes a methodology which permits optimal strategies for strategic transport models to be found by use of a limited number of model runs together with regression modelling of the resulting response surface. Typically, it will be the case that the number of policy variables is sufficiently large that the strategic model cannot be run for all possible combinations of their levels. Furthermore it can be very difficult to interpret the results from a large number of model runs where there are a lot of policy variables changing levels between runs. The proposed methodology models the response surface specifically in the locality of the optimum, thereby greatly clarifying what policy combinations should be further tested with the strategic model. A case study, for the city of Edinburgh, indicates that this methodology can identify improved strategies compared to conventional methods, even when the number of model runs used are far fewer than with the conventional methods.

The Economic Impact of Higher Education in the Yorkshire and Humberside Region of England.

The provision of higher education forms a considerable part of some regional economies, so that the current cutbacks can be expected to have considerable adverse economic effects in many regions. This article looks at the Yorkshire and Humberside planning region, a net exporter of higher education and quantifies the net economic impact of higher education in that region. For this purpose, rough estimates are made for the numbers of staff and students, and the incomes and expenditure of Higher Education institutions in the region. The direct and indirect employment is seen to be roughly 21/2% of regional employment. Of these only one seventh are academic posts, implying that, all else equal, for each academic post added (removed) six other jobs will be created (destroyed).

HARMONIZING HEAVY GOODS VEHICLE TAXES IN EUROPE: A BRITISH VIEW

One of the biggest unresolved problems regarding the completion of the free internal transport market within the European community is the problem of harmonization of taxation on the road haulage industry. As the highest tax country, Britain might be expected to have to reduce its level of taxes as part of any harmonization. This paper considers the current methodology of the British Department of Transport regarding the allocation of the track and external costs of road transport, in the light of developments in methodology and experience elsewhere in Western Europe and North America. We find a number of reasons for believing that, far from overstating the marginal social cost of use of roads by the road haulage industry, the current British approach actually understates it. Thus any move towards harmonizing tax levels may reduce taxes in Britain at a time when they should be increasing. (A)

Some outstanding problems in the causal modelling of car ownership at the local level

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of the Social Science Research Council in financing their ongoing research into car ownership forecasting and to thank John Bates, Mick Roberts and Hugh Gunn for providing the Maximum Likelihood computer programme and additional help.