A.S. Walter

Negative Campaigning across Different Communication Channels: Different Ball Games?

In this article, the authors address the question of to what extent negative political campaigning differs when looking at different communication channels. They compare paid publicity, election debates, and newspaper coverage for the 2006 Dutch parliamentary elections and conduct an elaborate content analysis. Results show that the level of negative campaigning does not differ greatly across these channels, although election debates clearly show the highest amount of this type of campaigning. Notably, negative campaigning takes a different form in newspaper coverage, where appeals are more personal, focusing on character traits as opposed to being directed to political parties and dealing with political issues. The authors explain those results by pointing to the different levels of control politicians exert over communication channels. They also make a plea to other researchers investigating negative campaigning, asking them to fully consider that their results might be seriously biased by the communication channel they investigate.

Choosing the enemy Attack behaviour in a multiparty system

This article examines which political parties are the most likely targets of negative campaigning in a multiparty system. The choice of target is an important strategic decision parties make when deciding on their campaign strategy. The article advances existing research on negative campaigning in several ways. First, it is the only paper of its kind to statistically test which parties are most likely to be attacked in a multiparty system and in a non-US setting. Second, it contributes to the development of a general theory on negative campaigning by examining its use in a multiparty system. Finally, it presents new content analysis data on negative campaigning from ten Dutch Parliamentary elections between 1981 and 2010. The findings show that large parties, ideologically proximate parties, parties close to the median party position and government parties are the most likely targets of negative campaigning in the Dutch multiparty system.

When the Stakes Are High Party Competition and Negative Campaigning

This article examines the conditions under which different kinds of parties resort to negative campaigning in three Western European countries: the Netherlands, Britain, and Germany in the period between 1980 and 2006. Data were collected for 27 parties, participating in 23 elections, yielding a total of 129 cases. The study uses a cross-nested multilevel model to estimate the effects of party characteristics as well as the electoral context in which these parties operate. It contributes to the state of the art on negative campaigning in two ways. First, being the first comparative and across-time study on negative campaigning, it compares negative campaigning across 23 elections, which is more than in any other study so far. It therefore contributes to the development of a more general theory on this type of campaign strategy. Second, it is the first study outside the American context to empirically estimate the effect of the electoral context on the use of negative campaigning. The results show that party characteristics are much more important than the electoral context in explaining when parties go negative.

Negative Campaigning in Western Europe: Similar or Different?

This article describes how political parties in parliamentary election campaigns in Western Europe make use of negative campaigning and examines whether their behaviour differs from that of candidates competing in US presidential election campaigns. Furthermore, it theorises how the differences and similarities between negative campaigning in these countries can be explained. First of all, this comparative study adds to the development of a more general theory on negative campaigning. Second, the study presents interesting new data measuring the use of negative campaigning by 31 political parties in 23 parliamentary election campaigns in Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands between 1980 and 2006. Results show that there are no signs of an increase in negative campaigning and that the majority of attacks are issue attacks. However, there are systematic differences in the overall level of negative campaigning between these countries and we suspect that the type of party system could be the main explanatory factor.

News, Discussion, and Associative Issue Ownership Instability at the Micro Level versus Stability at the Macro Level

Associative issue ownership refers to one of the prerequisites for representative democracy—public awareness of the issue priorities of competing political parties. This article addresses the question of how the instability of associative issue ownership at the micro level of individual voters, which could be due in part to election news and political discussion, adds up to the relative stability of associative issue ownership at the macro level. The data come from a panel survey and a content analysis of newspapers and television news bulletins in the 2010 Dutch Parliamentary Election Campaign. Cross-nested multilevel logistic regression models were applied to estimate the impact of political news and political discussion on different respondents for different parties and issues. The findings show how contagion, by traditional issue ownership associations, explains the relative stability at the macro level in spite of volatility at the micro level. Campaign news and political discussion increase the likelihood of contagion by traditional issue priorities of political parties, while also evoking change due to their convergence on the issues of the campaign, from which the parties that own these issues take advantage, among others the VVD and the PVV in the 2010 campaign.

Party system change and negative campaigning in New Zealand

Political campaigns are much more attack-filled in some countries than in others. What accounts for it? One answer hinges on the country’s party system. We propose that two-party systems encourage more negativity than multiparty systems because parties in a multiparty system (1) must maintain good relationships with parties with which they may want to enter into coalition and (2) run the risk of supporters of the attacked party moving to support a third party. We test the relationship between party system and attack behaviour in New Zealand, which in 1996 changed from a single-member district, first-past-the-post system to a mixed-member proportional system. The result was a more fragmented party system, resulting in coalition and minority governments. Analysing over 250 adverts and party election broadcasts aired from 1969 to 2011, we find that advertising has become more positive since 1996, suggesting that party systems affect the tone of election campaigns.

Women on the Battleground: Does Gender Condition the Use of Negative Campaigning?

This article presents the findings of an explorative study examining to what extent and under which conditions gender influences the use of negative campaigning in Western Europe. It advances existing research in two ways. First, it is one of the few empirical examinations to date exploring gender differences in negative campaigning outside the US context. Second, it brings to bear novel data on this topic from British, Dutch and German parliamentary election campaigns between 1980 and 2006. In essence, this study explores whether we can find gender effects on the use of negative campaigning in Western Europe. These effects are less likely to be found in these three Western European countries than in the United States, because we expect smaller candidate effects in parliamentary systems than in presidential systems. The analysis suggests that female party leaders are significantly more likely to “go negative”. However, this difference between male and female party leaders is entirely due to the inclusion of Margaret Thatcher in the analysis. Without her, the difference disappears.

Women on the Political Battleground: Does Gender Condition the Use of Negative Campaigning?

This comparative study examines to what extent and under which conditions gender influences the use of negative campaigning in Western Europe. It advances existing research as this study is one of the few empirical examinations of party leaders’ use of negative campaigning in election campaigns and the conditioning effect of gender outside the US context. The analysis covers the British, Dutch and German parliamentary election campaigns between 1980-2006. These three Western European democracies represent least likely cases to test the relationship between a party leader’s gender and the extent and content of negative campaigning for two reasons. First of all, we expect lower levels of negative campaigning in these multiparty systems compared to the US two party context. Second, we expect smaller candidate effects in these parliamentary systems compared to the US presidential system. The findings highlight that gender indeed affects negative campaigning in Western Europe. This being said, female party leaders do not differ from their male counterparts in the degree to which they utilize negative messages, but the content of these messages does vary on the basis of gender. When female party leaders go negative, they are more likely to attack their opponents on the basis of their existing policy records or future policy proposals than male party leaders. Overall, this study allows for an advancement of theoretical and empirical work on the relationship between gender and negative campaigning which originated in the US context.

Van volgzaam en respectvol naar dominant en sturend: de rol van de moderator in het Nederlandse verkiezingsdebat (1963-2010)

Televisiedebatten hebben zich ontwikkeld tot een onmisbaar onderdeel van verkiezingscampagnes. In Nederland is er weinig systematisch onderzoek gedaan naar verkiezingsdebatten en geheel niet naar de rol van de moderator. In dit paper zullen we ingaan op de vraag wat de rol van de moderator is in het Nederlandse verkiezingsdebat en of hier de laatste decennia veranderingen in zijn opgetreden.