A. Savvaidis

Rupture zones in the Aegean region

Rupture zones of strong shallow earthquakes can be investigated by field observations of surface fault traces (SF), accurate location of spatial clusters of aftershocks or other small earthquakes (CL), reliable fault plane solutions (FP) and information on the spatial distribution of sites with high ( I VIII) macroseismic intensities (MA). The validity of these four techniques was successfully tested by comparing the results of their application to several cases of strong shallow earthquakes. These techniques were then applied to spatially define the rupture zones of 150 strong.M 6:0/ shallow earthquakes in the Aegean and surrounding area. The type of faulting was determined for all these zones by the use of reliable fault plane solutions, which are available for this area. The orientation of most of these rupture (fault) zones is in good agreement with the presently acting stress field with some exceptions which are attributed to the rupture of pre-existing faults. The tectonic implications of these zones are discussed.

Accelerating Seismic Crustal Deformation in the Southern Aegean Area

A region of intense accelerating seismic crustal deformation has been identified in the southwestern part of the Hellenic arc (broader area of Cythera island). The identification is performed using a detailed parametric grid search of the broader southern Aegean area for accelerating energy release behavior. The identified region has similar properties with past preshock (critical) regions, which have been identified for strong mainshocks in the Aegean area. Based on such observations, which suggest that this region is at a critical state that can lead to a critical point, that is, to the generation of a mainshock, an estimation is made of the possible epicenter coordinates, magnitude, and origin time of this oncoming large (M ∼7.0) earthquake. The estimation procedure is validated on the basis of retrospective analysis of strong events in the Aegean area, as well as by appropriate application on synthetic random catalogs. These results, the existence of similar observations of accelerating seismic deformation in eastern part of southern Aegean and independent information on the time distribution of large earthquakes (M ≥6.8) for the whole southern Aegean indicate that the generation of strong earthquakes in this area in the next few years must be considered as very probable.

From Non-invasive Site Characterization to Site Amplification: Recent Advances in the Use of Ambient Vibration Measurements.

A series of investigations has been carried out over the last decade in Europe aimed at deriving quantitative information on site amplification from non-invasive techniques, based principally on surface wave interpretations of ambient noise measurements. The present paper focuses on their key outcomes regarding three main topics. First, methodological, hardware and software developments focusing on the acquisition and the processing of both single point and array microtremor measurements, led to an efficient tool with in situ control and processing, giving rise to robust and reproducible results. A special attention has been devoted to the derivation and use of the Rayleigh wave ellipticity. Second, the reliability of these new tools has been assessed through a thorough comparison with borehole measurements for a representative – though limited – set of sites located in Southern Europe, spanning from stiff to soft, and shallow to thick. Finally, correlations between the site parameters available from such non-invasive techniques, and the actual site amplification factors as measured with standard techniques, are derived from a comprehensive analysis of the Japanese KIKNET data. This allows to propose alternative, simple site characterization providing an improved variance reduction compared with the “classical” VS30 classification. While these results could pave the road for the next generation of building codes, they can also be used now for regulatory site classification and microzonation studies, in view of improved mapping and estimation of site amplification factors, and for the characterization of existing strong motion sites.

Influence of parameterization on inversion of surface wave dispersion curves and definition of an inversion strategy for sites with a strong VS contrast

Inversion of the fundamental mode of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve does not provide a unique solution and the choice of the parameterization (number of layers, range of velocity, and thickness values for the layers) is of prime importance for obtaining reliable results. We analyzed shear-wave velocity profiles derived from borehole tests at 10 sites where soil layers overlay bedrock in various geologic contexts. One to three seismic layers with linear velocity laws could model all of them. Three synthetic models defined from this preliminary study were used to understand the influence of parameterization on the dispersion curve inversion. This analysis resulted in the definition of a two-step inversion procedure for sites exhibiting a strong impedance con-trast. In the first step, the dispersion curve is inverted with an increasing number of layers over half space. The evolution of the minimum misfit and bedrock depth with number of layers allows the estimation of the true bedrock depth range. In the...

The 8 June 2008 Mw6.5 Achaia–Elia, Greece Earthquake: Source Characteristics, Ground Motions, and Ground Failure

The Mw6.4 Achaia–Elia (Greece) earthquake on 8 June 2008 was a right-lateral strike-slip event on a nearly vertical faul. Moment tensor solutions coupled with geologic structure and aftershock distributions suggest a fault strike of approximately 210° on a previously unmapped fault. Rupture appears to have been concentrated over a 10–25 km depth range and did not break the surface. The northern rupture limit appears to correspond to a NW-striking normal fault near the Kato Achaia coastline. The mainshock was recorded by 27 accelerometers at distances from the surface projection of the fault ranging from approximately 15 to 350 km. The data demonstrate faster distance attenuation than predicted by contemporary Greek ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). On the other hand, an NGA GMPE generally captures the distance attenuation but shows underprediction bias at short and long periods. Despite the presence of a range of site conditions at recording stations in the city of Patras, we find no obvious effect of sediment depth on response spectra. We show the possible presence of rupture directivity at the north end of this bilateral rupture, but no apparent effect at the southern end. We described several relatively well-documented incidents of nonground failure and ground failure associated with liquefaction/lateral spreading and landslides.

Precursory accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the Northwestern Anatolia Fault Zone

Abstract We present the results of a systematic search for the identification of accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the broader northern Aegean area and in northwestern Turkey. We found that accelerating seismic deformation release, expressed by the generation of intermediate magnitude earthquakes, is currently observed in NW Turkey. On the basis of the critical earthquake model and by applying certain constraints which hold between the basic quantities involved in this phenomenon, it can be expected that this accelerating seismic activity may culminate in the generation of two strong earthquakes in this area during the next few years. The estimated epicenter coordinates of the larger of these probably impending earthquakes are 39.7°N–28.8°E, its magnitude is 7.0 and its occurrence time tc=2003.5. The second strong event is expected to occur at tc=2002.5 with a magnitude equal to 6.4 and epicenter coordinates 40.0°N–27.4°E. The uncertainties in the calculated focal parameters for these expected events are of the order of 100 km for the epicenter, ±0.5 for their magnitude and ±1.5 years for their occurrence time.

Three‐dimensional shallow structure from high‐frequency ambient noise tomography: New results for the Mygdonia basin‐Euroseistest area, northern Greece

We examine the use of ambient noise cross-correlation tomography for shallow site characterization using a modified two-step approach. Initially, we extract Rayleigh wave traveltimes from correlation traces of vertical component seismic recordings from a local network installed in Mygdonia basin, northern Greece. The obtained Rayleigh wave traveltimes show significant spatial variability, as well as distance and frequency dependence due to the 3-D structure of the area, dispersion, and anelastic attenuation effects. The traveltime data sets are inverted through a surface wave tomography approach to determine group velocity maps for each frequency. The proposed tomographic inversion involves the use of approximate Fresnel volumes and interfrequency smoothing constraints to stabilize the results. In the last step, we determine a final 3-D velocity model using a node-based Monte Carlo 1-D dispersion curve inversion. The reliability of the final 3-D velocity model is examined by spatial and depth resolution analysis, as well as by inversion for different model parameterizations. The obtained results are in very good agreement with previous findings from seismic and other geophysical methods. The new 3-D VS model provides additional structural constraints for the shallow sediments and bedrock structure of the northern Mygdonia basin up to the depth of ∼200–250 m. Present work results suggest that the migration of ambient tomography techniques from large scales (tens or hundreds of km) to local scales (few hundred meters) is possible but cannot be used as a black box technique for 3-D modeling and detailed geotechnical site characterization.

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.

A LiDAR-aided urban-scale assessment of soil-structure interaction effects: the case of Kalochori residential area (N. Greece)

We present a methodology for a large-scale assessment of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects on the vibrational characteristics and the seismic loading of structures in a real urban fabric by combining airborne monitoring techniques, field surveys and simple calculations in the realm of structural and geotechnical dynamics. The proposed procedure combines geometrical features of a building stock acquired from a LiDAR-based 3D city model, material and typology data of structures from in situ inspections in representative building blocks, geotechnical data from field surveys and strong ground motion data from seismic hazard and site effects analyses. The integrated data are employed to compute at a first stage the fundamental period of each building in the urban area by means of code-defined formulas for both fixed- and flexible-base foundation conditions, thus treating soil-structure interaction effects in a simplified manner. The seismic action in terms of spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of structures is then computed, following a series of 1D site-specific analyses of soil response under different seismic scenarios. Spatially distributed ratios of structural fundamental periods and spectral accelerations, corresponding to flexible- over fixed-base foundation conditions, are mapped in GIS environment as an index of SSI effects at large-scale. The methodology is implemented in the urban area of Kalochori located west of Thessaloniki in Greece. The examined case study showed that SSI may be significant even for low-amplitude motions and may lead to higher seismic forces compared to the fixed-base case, depending on the dynamic characteristics of the structures, the soil conditions and the shape of the response spectrum. The above may be of importance in microzonation and seismic vulnerability studies at urban-scale when a building-by-building assessment is not feasible and SSI effects are too important to be ignored.

Geo-Characterization at selected accelerometric stations in Crete (Greece) and comparison of earthquake data recordings with EC8 elastic spectra

To estimate the seismic response according to Eurocode (EC8) and almost all other national codes, site conditions have to be properly characterized so that soil amplification and the corresponding peak ground motion can be calculated.In this work, different geophysical and geotechnical methods are combined in order to define the detailed ground conditions in selected sites of the Hellenic Accelerometric Network (HAN) in Crete. For this purpose, the geological information of the sites and shear wave velocity, calculated from surface wave measurements, is used. Additionally, ground acceleration data recorded through HAN have been utilized from intermediate depth earthquakes in the broader area of South Aegean Sea.Using the recorded ground motion data and the procedure defined in EC8, the corresponding elastic response spectrum is calculated for the selected sites. The resulting information is compared to the values defined in the corresponding EC8 spectrum for the seismic zone that includes the island of Crete.The comparison shows that accurate definition of ground type through geological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations is important. However, our current comparison focuses on the distribution of values rather than the absolute values of EC8-prescribed spectra, and the results should be considered in this context.