A. W. Sweeney

Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.

BACKGROUND The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this regions urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegyptis distribution under todays climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying through the installation of large domestic water storing containers. The expansion of this efficient dengue vector presents both an emerging and re-emerging disease risk to Australia. Therefore, if the installation and maintenance of domestic water storage tanks is not tightly controlled, Ae. aegypti could expand its range again and cohabit with the majority of Australias population, presenting a high potential dengue transmission risk during our warm summers.

Malaria vectors of Papua New Guinea.

Understanding malaria transmission in Papua New Guinea (PNG) requires exact knowledge of which Anopheles species are transmitting malaria and is complicated by the cryptic species status of many of these mosquitoes. To identify the malaria vectors in PNG we studied Anopheles specimens from 232 collection localities around human habitation throughout PNG (using CO(2) baited light traps and human bait collections). A total of 22,970mosquitoes were individually assessed using a Plasmodium sporozoite enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to identify Plasmodiumfalciparum, Plasmodiumvivax and Plasmodiummalariae circumsporozoite proteins. All mosquitoes were identified to species by morphology and/or PCR. Based on distribution, abundance and their ability to develop sporozoites, we identified five species as major vectors of malaria in PNG. These included: Anophelesfarauti, Anopheleshinesorum (incriminated here, to our knowledge, for the first time), Anophelesfarauti 4, Anopheleskoliensis and Anophelespunctulatus. Anopheleslongirostris and Anophelesbancroftii were also incriminated in this study. Surprisingly, An. longirostris showed a high incidence of infections in some areas. A newly identified taxon within the Punctulatus Group, tentatively called An. farauti 8, was also found positive for circumsporozoite protein. These latter three species, together with Anopheleskarwari and Anophelessubpictus, incriminated in other studies, appear to be only minor vectors, while Anophelesfarauti 6 appears to be the major vector in the highland river valleys (>1500m above sea level). The nine remaining Anopheles species found in PNG have been little studied and their bionomics are unknown; most appear to be uncommon with limited distribution and their possible role in malaria transmission has yet to be determined.

The anopheline fauna of Papua New Guinea

ABSTRACT Surveys for anopheline mosquitoes were conducted throughout the mainland of Papua New Guinea from 1992 to 1998 with the aim of mapping the distribution of the anopheline fauna. Larval collections, adult trap, and human landing collections indicated the presence of seven species (other than those belonging to the Anopheles punctulatus group); these were An. bancroftii, An. annulipes, An. karwari, An. longirostris, An. meraukensis, An. novaguinensis, and An. subpictus. The distribution and ecology of these species is discussed.

Australia’s Dengue Risk: Human Adaptation to Climate Change

The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region’s urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales (NSW) and other populated centers in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced.