Aaron Lowen

Born at the wrong time: selection bias in the NHL draft.

Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive.

Guys and Gals Going for Gold The Role of Women’s Empowerment in Olympic Success

We test the hypothesis that women’s empowerment correlates with women’s international athletic success. Greater gender equality (measured using the Gender Inequality Index) is associated with higher participation and medal counts in the Summer Olympic Games from 1996 through 2012. This relationship persists even after controlling for previously identified nation-level predictors of Olympic success and across alternative measures of success (such as shares of the total, percentage within each country, and medals per athlete). These results provide direct evidence for the long-standing claim that girls’ and women’s international athletic achievement is linked to women’s empowerment.

Does the sex difference in competitiveness decrease in selective sub-populations? A test with intercollegiate distance runners

Sex differences in some preferences and motivations are well established, but it is unclear whether they persist in selective sub-populations, such as expert financial decision makers, top scientists, or elite athletes. We addressed this issue by studying competitiveness in 1,147 varsity intercollegiate distance runners. As expected, across all runners, men reported greater competitiveness with two previously validated instruments, greater competitiveness on a new elite competitiveness scale, and greater training volume, a known correlate of competitiveness. Among faster runners, the sex difference decreased for one measure of competitiveness but did not decrease for the two other competitiveness measures or either measure of training volume. Across NCAA athletic divisions (DI, DII, DIII), the sex difference did not decrease for any competitiveness or training measure. Further analyses showed that these sex differences could not be attributed to women suffering more injuries or facing greater childcare responsibilities. However, women did report greater commitment than men to their academic studies, suggesting a sex difference in priorities. Therefore, policies aiming to provide men and women with equal opportunities to flourish should acknowledge that sex differences in some kinds of preferences and motivation may persist even in selective sub-populations.

Marketing implications of privacy concerns in the US and Canada

Purpose – Increasing availability of data obtained via the internet and the proliferation of direct mail advertising provides tremendous opportunities for marketers to reach their customers. However, increased risks to the personal privacy of consumers, and attention in the media to these risks, provide unique challenges. Companies and especially direct marketers are finding that they need to change their tactics to deal with the increase in consumer concerns and privacy‐protecting behaviors. This paper aims to address these issues.Design/methodology/approach – Using the results of a multinational privacy survey, the paper examines consumer privacy concerns and privacy‐protecting behaviors in the USA and Canada. It uses factor analysis and multiple regression techniques to analyze the data.Findings – While consumer concerns about privacy are essentially the same between the two countries, the privacy‐protecting behaviors differed significantly. The paper also suggests that demographic variables influence ...

School Consolidations and Teacher Incentive Contracts

We construct an agency-based model of incentive contracting within the education system. We use this framework to evaluate first-best, second-best, and pooling contracts under a variety of assumptions germane to the consolidation of elementary and secondary schools. By introducing a monitoring technology, an auditor, which serves as liaison between the principal (superintendent) and the agent (teacher), information constraints induced by school consolidations can be alleviated. Using this framework, we consider various policy issues such as how and where teacher incentive contracts might succeed, what may cause incentive contracts to fail, and how to determine optimal school size.