Aaron Reeves

Greece's health crisis: from austerity to denialism

Greeces economic crisis has deepened since it was bailed out by the international community in 2010. The country underwent the sixth consecutive year of economic contraction in 2013, with its economy shrinking by 20% between 2008 and 2012, and anaemic or no growth projected for 2014. Unemployment has more than tripled, from 7·7% in 2008 to 24·3% in 2012, and long-term unemployment reached 14·4%. We review the background to the crisis, assess how austerity measures have affected the health of the Greek population and their access to public health services, and examine the political response to the mounting evidence of a Greek public health tragedy.

Increase in state suicide rates in the USA during economic recession

Evidence from European countries indicates a significant rise in suicides from the economic recession, totalling more than 1000 excess deaths in the UK alone. Among the worst affected economies in Europe, such as Greece, suicides have risen by more than 60% since 2007.2 Thus far, there has been little or no analysis of US mental health data, mostly owing to delays in data availability. Here, we extend our previous analyses of recessions and suicides in Europe to assess trends in all 50 US states. We use data on suicide mortality rates from 1999 to 2010 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Unemployment data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Time-trend regression models were used to assess excess suicides occurring during the economic crisis -- ie, deaths over and above the level that would be expected if historical trends continued (see appendix for methodological details). Although there are concerns that suicide data are under-reported in the USA, these biases are likely to have been consistent over this relatively short period, although they might lead to a conservative estimate of the mental health effects of the crisis. Looking across US states between 1999 and 2010, we found that the strongest correlation between unemployment and suicides was in Texas (r=0·91), but overall the correlations were statistically indistinguishable between the north, south, east, and west, or when disaggregating states by Democrat and Republican governors (appendix). Small numbers of suicides in small populations limit a state-by-state comparison for all 50 states. Similar patterns were seen if absolute numbers of suicides were used instead of overall rates. Suicide is a rare outcome of mental illness; these data are likely to be the most visible indicator of major depression and anxiety disorders, as seen in primary-care settings in Spain and in the Greek population. The pattern of accelerating suicides noted in the USA mirrors that recorded for economic reasons in Italy. Future research should explore other risk factors such as foreclosures and job and income losses, and modifying factors such as gun control policies, access to the means of self-harm, and vulnerable groups, which could explain the remaining portion of the suicide rise observed during the recession. Our findings have immediate implications for policy. Given that some countries have avoided increases in suicides despite significant economic downturns, there is a clear need to implement policy initiatives that promote the resilience of populations during the ongoing recession. Active labour market programs--projects that immediately help the unemployed find social support and new work opportunities (even part time)--and mental health prevention programs seem to mitigate significantly the negative mental health effects of recessions. The fact that countries such as Sweden have been able to prevent suicide rises despite major recessions reveals opportunities to protect Americans from further risks of suicide during the continued economic downturn. Language: en

The political economy of austerity and healthcare: Cross-national analysis of expenditure changes in 27 European nations 1995–2011

Why have patterns of healthcare spending varied during the Great Recession? Using cross-national, harmonised data for 27 EU countries from 1995 to 2011, we evaluated political, economic, and health system determinants of recent changes to healthcare expenditure. Data from EuroStat, the IMF, and World Bank (2013 editions) were evaluated using multivariate random- and fixed-effects models, correcting for pre-existing time-trends. Reductions in government health expenditure were not significantly associated with magnitude of economic recessions (annual change in GDP, p=0.31, or cumulative decline, p=0.40 or debt crises (measured by public debt as a percentage of GDP, p=0.38 or per capita, p=0.83)). Nor did ideology of governing parties have an effect. In contrast, each

Austerity, sanctions, and the rise of food banks in the UK

100 reduction in tax revenue was associated with a

Economic shocks, resilience, and male suicides in the Great Recession: cross-national analysis of 20 EU countries

2.72 drop in health spending (95% CI:

‘First, do no harm’: are disability assessments associated with adverse trends in mental health? A longitudinal ecological study

1.03-4.41). IMF borrowers were significantly more likely to reduce healthcare budgets than non-IMF borrowers (OR=3.88, 95% CI: 1.95 -7.74), even after correcting for potential confounding by indication. Exposure to lending from international financial institutions, tax revenue falls, and decisions to implement cuts correlate more closely than underlying economic conditions or orientation of political parties with healthcare expenditure change in EU member states.

Austere or not? UK coalition government budgets and health inequalities

Doctors are witnessing increasing numbers of patients seeking referrals to food banks in the United Kingdom. Rachel Loopstra and colleagues ask, is this due to supply or demand?

Financing universal health coverage--effects of alternative tax structures on public health systems: cross-national modelling in 89 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND During the 2007-11 recessions in Europe, suicide increases were concentrated in men. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. We investigated whether increases in unaffordable housing, household indebtedness or job loss can account for these population differences, as well as potential mitigating effects of alternative forms of social protection. METHODS Multivariate statistical models were used to evaluate changes in suicide rates in 20 EU countries from 1981-2011. Models adjusted for pre-existing time trends and country-fixed effects. Interaction terms were used to evaluate modifying effects. RESULTS Changes in levels of unaffordable housing had no effect on suicide rates (P = 0.32); in contrast, male suicide increases were significantly associated with each percentage point rise in male unemployment, by 0.94% (95% CI: 0.51-1.36%), and indebtedness, by 0.54% (95% CI: 0.02-1.06%). Spending on active labour market programmes (ALMP) (-0.26%, 95% CI: -0.08 to -0.45%) and high levels of social capital (-0.048%, 95% CI: -0.0096 to -0.087) moderated the unemployment-suicide association. There was no interaction of the volume of anti-depressant prescriptions (P = 0.51), monetary benefits to unemployed persons (P = 0.77) or total social protection spending per capita (P = 0.37). Active labour market programmes and social capital were estimated to have prevented ∼ 540 and ∼ 210 male suicides, respectively, arising from unemployment in the countries studied. CONCLUSION Job losses were a critical determinant of variations in male suicide risks in Europes recessions. Greater spending on ALMP and levels of social capital appeared to mitigate suicide risks.

The attack on universal health coverage in Europe: recession, austerity and unmet needs.

Background In England between 2010 and 2013, just over one million recipients of the main out-of-work disability benefit had their eligibility reassessed using a new functional checklist—the Work Capability Assessment. Doctors and disability rights organisations have raised concerns that this has had an adverse effect on the mental health of claimants, but there are no population level studies exploring the health effects of this or similar policies. Method We used multivariable regression to investigate whether variation in the trend in reassessments in each of 149 local authorities in England was associated with differences in local trends in suicides, self-reported mental health problems and antidepressant prescribing rates, while adjusting for baseline conditions and trends in other factors known to influence mental ill-health. Results Each additional 10 000 people reassessed in each area was associated with an additional 6 suicides (95% CI 2 to 9), 2700 cases of reported mental health problems (95% CI 548 to 4840), and the prescribing of an additional 7020 antidepressant items (95% CI 3930 to 10100). The reassessment process was associated with the greatest increases in these adverse mental health outcomes in the most deprived areas of the country, widening health inequalities. Conclusions The programme of reassessing people on disability benefits using the Work Capability Assessment was independently associated with an increase in suicides, self-reported mental health problems and antidepressant prescribing. This policy may have had serious adverse consequences for mental health in England, which could outweigh any benefits that arise from moving people off disability benefits.

The health effects of the global financial crisis: can we reconcile the differing views? A network analysis of literature across disciplines.

Aaron Reeves, Sanjay Basu, Martin McKee, Michael Marmot and David Stuckler Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 1UQ, UK Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, 94305, USA Department of Public Health and Policy, LSHTM, London, WC1H 9SH, UK Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK Corresponding author: Aaron Reeves. Email: aaron.reeves@sociology.ox.ac.uk