Abbas Valadkhani

Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis

The impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market is examined. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982–1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of 42 severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of A

Dynamic linkages between Thai and international stock markets

5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of A

Ranking and Clustering Australian University Research Performance, 1998-2002

100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival, in the form of the natural disasters, is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate that bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.

Assessing the impact of changes in petroleum prices on inflation and household expenditures in Australia

Purpose - This purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of cointegration and causality between the stock market price indices of Thailand and its major trading partners (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the USA), using monthly data spanning December 1987 to December 2005. Design/methodology/approach - This paper used both the Engle-Granger two-step procedure (assuming no structural breaks) and the Gregory and Hansen test (allowing for one structural break) provide no evidence of a long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and these countries. Findings - Based on the empirical results obtained from these two residual-based cointegration tests, potential long-run benefits exist from diversifying the investment portfolios internationally to reduce the associated systematic risks across countries. However, in the short-run, three unidirectional Granger causalities run from the stock returns of Hong Kong, the Philippines and the UK to those of Thailand, pair-wise. Furthermore, there are two unidirectional causalities running from the stock returns of Thailand to those of Indonesia and the USA. Empirical evidence was also found of bidirectional Granger causality, suggesting that the stock returns of Thailand and three of its neighbouring countries (Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan) are interrelated. Originality/value - No previous study examines the possibility that the pair-wise long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and those of both emerging and developed markets may have been subject to a structural break.

A factor analysis of international portfolio diversification

This paper clusters and ranks the research performance of 36 Australian universities according to their research performance over the period of 1998–2002. Research performance is measured according to audited numbers of Ph.D. completions and publications, and research grants income (in accordance with rules established by the Department of Education, Science and Training), and analysed in both total and per academic staff terms. Hierarchical cluster analysis supports a binary division between 15 higher‐performing and 22 lower‐performing universities, with the specification in per academic staff terms identifying the self‐designated research intensive Group of Seven universities, plus several others in the better‐performing group. The higher‐performing group includes the 7 research‐intensive Group of Eight universities examined. Factor analysis indicates that the top three research performers in terms of total research performance are the Universities of Melbourne, Sydney, and Queensland, while the top 3 in terms of per capita academic staff are the Universities of Melbourne, Adelaide, and Western Australia.

Financial crises and international stock market volatility transmission

This article analyses the expected impact of a twofold rise in petrol prices on sectoral prices and household expenditures in Australia using 1996-97 and 1977-78 input-output tables.

An Empirical Analysis of Australian Labour Productivity

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between stock market returns of 13 countries based upon monthly data spanning December 1987 to April 2007. Design/methodology/approach - Specifically, the principal component (PC) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods are used to examine any discernable patterns of stock market co-movements. Findings - Factor analysis provides evidence that stock returns in a number of Asian countries are highly correlated and, based on the resulting robust factor loadings, they form the first well-defined common factor. The paper also finds consistent results (based on both the PC and ML methods) suggesting that the stock market returns of developed countries are also highly correlated, and constitute our second factor. Practical implications - The paper concludes that, Originality/value - Very few previous studies have investigated the benefits from portfolio diversification by using the PC and ML methods.

What determines private investment in Iran

This paper examines the interplay between stock market returns and their volatility, focusing on the Asian and global financial crises of 1997–98 and 2008–09 for Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. We use a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and weekly data (January 1992–June 2009). Based on the results obtained from the mean return equations, we could not find any significant impact on returns arising from the Asian crisis and more recent global financial crises across these four markets. However, both crises significantly increased the stock return volatilities across all of the four markets. Not surprisingly, it is also found that the US stock market is the most crucial market impacting on the volatilities of smaller economies such as Australia. Our results provide evidence of own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, suggesting the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. A high degree of time-varying co-volatility among these markets indicates that investors will be highly unlikely to benefit from diversifying their financial portfolio by acquiring stocks within these four countries only.

Interest Rate Pass-Through and the Asymmetric Relationship between the Cash Rate and the Mortgage Rate

This study presents a model capturing sources of Australian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1970 to 2001. Labour productivity, or real output per hour worked, in this model is determined by real net capital stock in information technology and telecommunications (ITT), real net capital stock in the non-ITT sector, trade openness, human capital, the wage rate, international competitiveness, and the union membership rate. Given the lack of long and consistent time series data, multivariate cointegration techniques are inappropriate as the cointegration results will be sensitive to the lag length, the inclusion or exclusion of the intercept term or a trend in the cointegration equation and/or the vector autoregression (VAR) specification. Therefore, the Engle-Granger representation theorem and the Hausman weak exogeneity test have been employed to determine the short and long-term drivers of Australian productivity. Empirical estimates indicate that, in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of investment, trade openness, international competitiveness, and the use of wage as a stimulant in a decentralised wage negotiation system, will improve labour productivity. In the short term, all the above variables except for human capital and labour reforms, which both need more time to evolve, determine productivity performance.

Does the Term Structure Predict Australia’s Future Output Growth?

Irans third five-year development (2000/2001-2004/2005) has been considered a pivotal role for private investment in creating 700,000-800,000 jobs per annum to stabilise the rate of unemployment. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the private investment function by employing the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique and a short-run dynamic model. Using annual data for the period 1960-2000, this paper finds, inter alia, that private investment is cointegrated with non-oil gross domestic product and the rate of inflation. It is found that a 1 per cent increase in inflation in the long run can immediately result in a 1 per cent decline in investment in the short run.