Abdo A. Husseiny

Analysis of gross error rates in operation of commercial nuclear power stations

Abstract Experience in operation of US commercial nuclear power plants is reviewed over a 25-moth period. The reports accumulated in that period on events of human error and component failure are examined to evaluate gross operator error rates. The impact of such errors on plant operation and safety is examined through the use of proper taxonomies of error, tasks and failures. Four categories of human errors are considered; namely, operator, maintenance, installation and administrative. The computed error rates are used to examine appropriate operator models for evaluation of operator reliability. Human error rates are found to be significant to a varying degree in both BWR and PWR. This emphasizes the import of considering human factors in safety and reliability analysis of nuclear systems. The results also indicate that human errors, and especially operator errors, do indeed follow the exponential reliability model.

Operating procedure automation to enhance safety of nuclear power plants

Abstract Use of logic statements and computer assist are explored as means for automation and improvement on design of operating procedures including those employed in abnormal and emergency situations. Operating procedures for downpower and loss of forced circulation are used for demonstration. Human-factors analysis is performed on generic emergency operating procedures for three strategies of control; manual, semi-automatic and automatic, using standard emergency operating procedures. Such preliminary analysis shows that automation of procedures is feasible provided that fault-tolerant software and hardware become available for design of the controllers. Recommendations are provided for tests to substantiate the promise of enhancement of plant safety. Adequate design of operating procedures through automation may alleviate several major operational problems of nuclear power plants. Also, automation of procedures is necessary for partial or overall automatic control of plants. Fully automatic operations are needed for space applications while supervised automation of land-based and offshore plants may become the thrust of new generation of nuclear power plants.

A formal methodology for acceptability analysis of alternate sites for nuclear power stations

Abstract A formal methodology is developed for the selection of the best sites from among alternate suitable sites for a nuclear power station. The method is based on reducing the various variables affecting the decision to a single function that provides a metric for the level of site acceptability. The function accomodates for well known sites selection criteria as well as other factors; such as public reactions to certain choices. The method is applied to the selection of a site from three acceptable alternate sites for Wolf Creek nuclear power station, Kansas.

Risk assessment of alternative proliferation routes

Multi-Attribute Decision Theory is applied to rank II alternative routes to nuclear proliferation in order of difficulty in acquiring nuclear weapons by nonnuclear countries. The method is based on reducing the various variables affecting the decision to a single function providing a measure for the proliferation route. The results indicate that the most difficult route to obtain atomic weapons is through nuclear power reactors, specifically the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor, heavy water Canada deuterium uranium reactor, and light water reactors such as boiling water and pressurized water reactors. The easiest routes are supercritical centrifuge isotope separation, laser isotope separation, and research reactor. However, nonnuclear routes available that result in substantial damage to life and property are easier than any nuclear route.

Desalting in Saudi Arabia—demand, production, management, associated power generation and future plans

Abstract Patterns of water demand and consumption in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are analyzed to extrapolate the extent of actual future desalination activities. Methods sought for supplementing the present water supply by means other than desalination are reviewed. Current production of desalted water and future plans are given. Expansion in the construction of desalination plants is intended to increase the installed capacity by more than a hundred fold within the next decade. The largest plant is 757 thousand m3/d (200 mgd)/2000 MWe dual-purpose plant, which will be installed on the East Coast. Electric power generation activities associated with water desalting are also considered to examine the role of dual-purpose plants. Patterns of power demand, production and consumption are discussed. The present management procedure of major desalting plants is presented and analyzed. Finally, long-term plans are examined in relation to the present economic and social structure.

Nuclear desalination for Saudi Arabia: an appraisal

Abstract The viability of using nuclear energy in desalting seawater in Saudi Arabia is considered. On the basis of recent plans to expand in the capacity and distribution of power and desalination plants, scenarios are developed to examine the economics of nuclear systems within the frame of present development. Merits of employment of nuclear energy are discussed and regional factors which may affect future plans are presented.

Reliability analysis of reverse osmosis plant

Abstract The increasing complexity of desalting plants demands consideration of operational and maintenance factors in the design phase. Applications of the fault tree techniques to RO sea water desalination systems are illustrated; critical failure problem areas are identified and methods of improving the performance of the RO desalination plants are recommended. Failure data has been extracted from operation and maintenance reports of the operating RO desalination plants in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. An assessment is also made of the impact of failures and outages on the availability of the plant.

Performance evaluation of MSF plants, the case of Jeddah plants

Abstract The objectives of the work reported here is to review the performance of Jeddah Desalination plant during a period of 8 years of operation to provide insight into actual plant experience. Data have been extracted from plant monthly reports and maintenance orders. The analysis provided here is based on objective evaluations of operations data and experience and is directed towards assessment of problems that can be mitigated in new designs of MSF plants and recommendations for improvement or modifications of existing designs or procedures.

Multiattribute decision analysis of desalination plant engineering management options with applications to Saudi Arabia

Abstract A quantitative approach based on decision and utility theories is applied to the selection of engineering management strategies for the operation of desalination plants. The method is powerful in dealing with multiobjective decisions and in accommodating for preferences of decision-makers. The analysis could be influenced by subjective valuation of attributes; however, thorough consideration of all the factors affecting the decision, both qualitatively and quantitatively is possible. As a demonstration of the methodology, analysis is made of the management policies of desalination plants in Saudi Arabia. The options in this case include reliance upon expatriates, indigent personnel, computer and automation or a mix between such alternate strategies. Qualitative investigation shows that shortage in properly trained manpower in developing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and the associated eagerness for development have made reliance on foreign expertise inevitable. However, foreign experts face several difficulties which often result in discouraging competent personnel especially those with management experience from being actively engaged in management of desalination plants. The host country often suffers in implementing large desalination projects, because of the inferior quality of available personnel, the lack of dedication and the temporariness of the nature of jobs held by foreigners including management positions. Participation of indigent personnel in management of large desalination plants may increase the opportunity of success; however, this is often done prematurely leading to setbacks in the execution of those projects. Intuitively, a mix between foreign and local experts and the use of computers and management strategies requiring minimum number of personnel seems to provide a large potential of success. However, proper selection and supervision of foreign experts is necessary. Such option requires the simultaneous development of adequate data and information banks. Use of quantitative decision analysis shows that extensive use of computers with minimum utilization of indigent personnel is the most preferred option. The second preference is the dependence on indigent personnel with extensive foreign training. Rank order of other options is also given.

A Data Bank for Human Related Events in Nuclear Power Plants

The authors introduce a comprehensive survey and evaluation of presently available data sources in nuclear power plants. A newly developed classification format for human related events is proposed. The format presents all necessary information in a coded form to support human reliability analysis and the assessment of performance shaping factors. Recommendations are given for improving data sources to facilitate the evaluation of man-machine interfaces and human performance in nuclear power plants.