Abdonas Tamosiunas

Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences. Design Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US. Setting General population. Participants 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years Main outcome measures All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. Results 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses. Conclusions Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.

Determinants of cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases in Central and Eastern Europe: Rationale and design of the HAPIEE study

BackgroundOver the last five decades, a wide gap in mortality opened between western and eastern Europe; this gap increased further after the dramatic fluctuations in mortality in the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the 1990s. Recent rapid increases in mortality among lower socioeconomic groups in eastern Europe suggests that socioeconomic factors are powerful determinants of mortality in these populations but the more proximal factors linking the social conditions with health remain unclear. The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate the effect of classical and non-conventional risk factors and social and psychosocial factors on cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases in eastern Europe and the FSU. The main hypotheses of the HAPIEE study relate to the role of alcohol, nutrition and psychosocial factors.Methods and designThe HAPIEE study comprises four cohorts in Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania; each consists of a random sample of men and women aged 45–69 years old at baseline, stratified by gender and 5 year age groups, and selected from population registers. The total planned sample size is 36,500 individuals. Baseline information from the Czech Republic, Russia and Poland was collected in 2002–2005 and includes data on health, lifestyle, diet (food frequency), socioeconomic circumstances and psychosocial factors. A short examination included measurement of anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, lung function and cognitive function, and a fasting venous blood sample. Re-examination of the cohorts in 2006–2008 focuses on healthy ageing and economic well-being using face-to-face computer assisted personal interviews. Recruitment of the Lithuanian cohort is ongoing, with baseline and re-examination data being collected simultaneously. All cohorts are being followed up for mortality and non-fatal cardiovascular events.DiscussionThe HAPIEE study will provide important new insights into social, behavioural and biological factors influencing mortality and cardiovascular risk in the region.

Relative Risks for Stroke by Age, Sex, and Population Based on Follow-Up of 18 European Populations in the MORGAM Project

Background and Purpose— Within the framework of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, the variations in impact of classical risk factors of stroke by population, sex, and age were analyzed. Methods— Follow-up data were collected in 43 cohorts in 18 populations in 8 European countries surveyed for cardiovascular risk factors. In 93 695 persons aged 19 to 77 years and free of major cardiovascular disease at baseline, total observation years were 1 234 252 and the number of stroke events analyzed was 3142. Hazard ratios were calculated by Cox regression analyses. Results— Each year of age increased the risk of stroke (fatal and nonfatal together) by 9% (95% CI, 9% to 10%) in men and by 10% (9% to 10%) in women. A 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure involved a similar increase in risk in men (28%; 24% to 32%) and women (25%; 20% to 29%). Smoking conferred a similar excess risk in women (104%; 78% to 133%) and in men (82%; 66% to 100%). The effect of increasing body mass index was very modest. Higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels decreased the risk of stroke more in women (hazard ratio per mmol/L 0.58; 0.49 to 0.68) than in men (0.80; 0.69 to 0.92). The impact of the individual risk factors differed somewhat between countries/regions with high blood pressure being particularly important in central Europe (Poland and Lithuania). Conclusions— Age, sex, and region-specific estimates of relative risks for stroke conferred by classical risk factors in various regions of Europe are provided. From a public health perspective, an important lesson is that smoking confers a high risk for stroke across Europe.

Accessibility and use of urban green spaces, and cardiovascular health: findings from a Kaunas cohort study

BackgroundThe aims of this study were to explore associations of the distance and use of urban green spaces with the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors, and to evaluate the impact of the accessibility and use of green spaces on the incidence of CVD among the population of Kaunas city (Lithuania).MethodsWe present the results from a Kaunas cohort study on the access to and use of green spaces, the association with cardiovascular risk factors and other health-related variables, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. A random sample of 5,112 individuals aged 45-72 years was screened in 2006-2008. During the mean 4.41 years follow-up, there were 83 deaths from CVD and 364 non-fatal cases of CVD among persons free from CHD and stroke at the baseline survey. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for data analysis.ResultsWe found that the distance from people’s residence to green spaces was not related to the prevalence of health-related variables. However, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus were significantly lower among park users than among non-users. During the follow up, an increased risk of non-fatal and fatal CVD combined was observed for those who lived ≥629.61 m from green spaces (3rd tertile of distance to green space) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36), and the risk for non-fatal CVD–for those who lived ≥347.81 m (2nd and 3rd tertile) and were not park users (HR = 1.66) as compared to men and women who lived 347.8 m or less (1st tertile) from green space. Men living further away from parks (3rd tertile) had a higher risk of non-fatal and fatal CVD combined, compared to those living nearby (1st tertile) (HR = 1.51). Compared to park users living nearby (1st tertile), a statistically significantly increased risk of non-fatal CVD was observed for women who were not park users and living farther away from parks (2nd and 3rd tertile) (HR = 2.78).ConclusionOur analysis suggests public health policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyles in urban settings could produce cardiovascular benefits.

Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries

Objective To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. Methods Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed. Results In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m2 for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol. Conclusions CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.

The relationship of green space, depressive symptoms and perceived general health in urban population.

Aims:To assess the relationship between green space proximity, use of green space and depressive symptoms and perceived general health among a random sample men and women. Methods: Cross-sectional study of a population-based sample of 6,944 45–72 year old Kaunas city residents. Self-reported questionnaires provided information on sociodemographic variables, health behaviours, depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health. Residential proximity to green spaces was defined as living less than 300 m, within interval of 300–999 m, and equal or more than 1 km from a park. The use of the park was divided into two categories: no park use or use <4hrs/week and use of the park ≥4 h/week. The study received approval from the Kaunas Regional Research Ethics Committee. Multiple logistic regression assessed the associations controlling for confounding variables. Results: The prevalence of depressive symptoms and poor and or very poor perceived general health was higher in women than in men. The association between the use of the park and residential proximity to the park revealed that women living >300 m from a green space and who used the space ≥4 h/week showed higher odds 1.92 (1.11–3.3) and 1.68 (0.81–3.48) of depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health as compared to those who used the park <4 hrs/week and residential proximity was >300 m. Conclusions: The results of our study confirmed an association between use of the green space, residential proximity, and depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health among women only.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, and the risk of mortality among middle-aged Lithuanian urban population in 1983-2009

BackgroundArterial hypertension (AH) is a main risk factor for the risk from cardiovascular (CVD) and stroke mortality. Only few data was published on prevalence, awareness and management of AH in Lithuania. Development of objective approaches to the treatment and control of AH reduces the risk of mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate time trends, the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of AH and risk of mortality among Lithuanian urban population aged 45–64 years during the period of 1983–2009.MethodsTime trends of AH and risk of mortality were examined in three MONICA health surveys in 1983, 1986, 1992, and in one health survey according to MONICA protocol in 2002 included randomly recruited of 2,218 men and 2,491 women. AH was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP of ≥90 mmHg or current use of antihypertensive medication. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality, mortality from CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. The mean duration of follow-up was 11.8 ± 9.2 years. All survey periods were age standardized to the year 2006 of Kaunas population. The estimates of hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval were based on the multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsIn men during 1983–2002 period hypertension prevalence was 52.1–58.7% and did not significantly change whereas in women decreased from 61.0 to 51.0%. There was a significant increase in hypertension awareness among hypertensive men and women (45.0 to 64.4% and 47.7 to 72.3%, respectively) and in treated hypertensives (55.4 to 68.3% in men and 65.6 to 86.2% in women). Adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed a strong dose–response association between blood-pressure level and all-cause, CVD, CHD and stroke-mortality risk in both men and women groups.ConclusionIn Lithuanian urban population the prevalence of hypertension remains high. Despite positive changes in hypertension awareness and treatment, hypertension control remains poor. A strong dose–response association between the level of BP and all-cause, CVD, CHD and stroke mortality risk was indicated.

Trends in suicide in a Lithuanian urban population over the period 1984–2003

BackgroundThroughout the last decade of the twentieth century, Lithuania had the highest suicide rates in Europe among both men and women aged 25–64 years. The rates increased from 1986 until 1995, but later there was a slight decrease. This paper describes the trends in suicide deaths in urban population in Lithuania by gender, dates and suicide method over the period 1984–2003.MethodsData from the regional mortality register were used to analyze suicide deaths among all men and women aged 25–64 years in Kaunas city, Lithuania over the period 1984–2003. Age-standardized death rates per 100,000 persons (using European standard population) were calculated by gender, suicide method and dates. A joinpoint regression method was used to estimate annual percentage changes (EPACs) and to detect points where the trends changed significantly.ResultsThe frequency of death by suicide among males was 48% higher in 1994–2003 than in 1984–1993. The corresponding increase among females was 28%. The most common methods of suicide among men were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (87.4% among all suicide deaths). The proportions of hanging, strangulation and suffocation in males increased by 6.9% – from 83.9% to 89.7% – compared to a 24.2% increase in deaths from handgun, rifle and shotgun firearm discharges and a 216.7% increase in deaths from poisoning with solvents, gases, pesticides and vapors. Among females, the most common methods of suicide were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (68.3% of all suicide deaths). The proportion of hanging deaths among females increased during the time period examined, whereas the proportion of poisonings with solid or liquid substances decreased.ConclusionSuicide rates increased significantly among urban men aged 25–64 years in Lithuania throughout the period 1984–2003, whereas among women an increasing but statistically insignificant trend was observed. There were changes in the suicide methods used by both men and women. Changes in the choice of method may have contributed to the changes in suicide rates.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years. METHODS Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014. RESULTS A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

Socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania in the 2000s: findings from the HAPIEE Study

Background Relatively large socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality have been observed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Yet comparative data are sparse and virtually all studies include only education. The aim of this study is to quantify and compare socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality during the 2000s in urban population samples from four CEE/FSU countries, by three different measures of socioeconomic position (SEP) (education, difficulty buying food and household amenities), reflecting different aspects of SEP. Methods Data from the prospective population-based HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe) study were used. The baseline survey (2002–2005) included 16 812 men and 19 180 women aged 45–69 years in Novosibirsk (Russia), Krakow (Poland), Kaunas (Lithuania) and seven Czech towns. Deaths in the cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Data were analysed by direct standardisation and Cox regression, quantifying absolute and relative SEP differences. Results Mortality inequalities by the three SEP indicators were observed in all samples. The magnitude of inequalities varied according to gender, country and SEP measure. As expected, given the high mortality rates in Russian men, largest absolute inequalities were found among Russian men (educational slope index of inequality was 19.4 per 1000 person-years). Largest relative inequalities were observed in Czech men and Lithuanian subjects. Disadvantage by all three SEP measures remained strongly associated with increased mortality after adjusting for the other SEP indicators. Conclusions The results emphasise the importance of all SEP measures for understanding mortality inequalities in CEE/FSU.