Abdul-Hamid Soubra

Probabilistic Analysis of Circular Tunnels in Homogeneous Soil Using Response Surface Methodology

A probabilistic analysis of a shallow circular tunnel driven by a pressurized shield in a frictional and/or cohesive soil is presented. Both the ultimate limit state (ULS) and serviceability limit state (SLS) are considered in the analysis. Two deterministic models based on numerical simulations are used. The first one computes the tunnel collapse pressure and the second one calculates the maximal settlement due to the applied face pressure. The response surface methodology is utilized for the assessment of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index for both limit states. Only the soil shear strength parameters are considered as random variables while studying the ULS. However, for the SLS, both the shear strength parameters and Youngs modulus of the soil are considered as random variables. For ULS, the assumption of uncorrelated variables was found conservative in comparison to the one of negatively correlated parameters. For both ULS and SLS, the assumption of nonnormal distribution for the random variables has almost no effect on the reliability index for the practical range of values of the applied pressure. Finally, it was found that the system reliability depends on both limit states. Notice however that the contribution of ULS to the system reliability was not significant. Thus, SLS can be used alone for the assessment of the tunnel reliability.

Probabilistic analysis of pressurized tunnels against face stability using collocation- based stochastic response surface method

A probabilistic analysis of the face stability of a tunnel driven by a compressed-air pressurized shield is presented. The collocation-based stochastic response surface methodology (CSRSM) is used. The deterministic model employed in the probabilistic analysis is analytical. A translational multiblock collapse mechanism in the framework of the kinematic theorem of limit analysis forms the basis of the analysis. The soil friction angle and cohesion are considered as random variables. CSRSM was first validated by the comparison of the results obtained from the original analytical deterministic model. Then, the influence of the probabilistic characteristics of the uncertain variables was studied. Contrary to the correlation between c and phi and the coefficients of variation of these variables, which have a significant effect on the variability of the critical collapse pressure, the nonnormality of the distributions of the random variables was shown not to have a considerable effect on the distribution of the output.

Validation of a New 2D Failure Mechanism for the Stability Analysis of a Pressurized Tunnel Face in a Spatially Varying Sand

A new two-dimensional 2D limit analysis failure mechanism is presented for the determination of the critical collapse pressure of a pressurized tunnel face in the case of a soil exhibiting spatial variability in its shear strength parameters. The proposed failure mechanism is a rotational rigid block mechanism. It is constructed in such a manner to respect the normality condition of the limit analysis theory at every point of the velocity discontinuity surfaces taking into account the spatial variation of the soil angle of internal friction. Thus, the slip surfaces of the failure mechanism are not described by standard curves such as log-spirals. Indeed, they are determined point by point using a spatial discretization technique. Though the proposed mechanism is able to deal with frictional and cohesive soils, the present paper only focuses on sands. The mathematical formulation used for the generation of the failure mechanism is first detailed. The proposed kinematical approach is then presented and validated by comparison with numerical simulations. The present failure mechanism was shown to give results in terms of critical collapse pressure and shape of the collapse mechanism that compare reasonably well with the numerical simulations at a significantly cheaper computational cost. DOI: 10.1061/ASCEEM.1943-7889.0000196 CE Database subject headings: Tunnels; Limit analysis; Failures; Shear strength; Parameters. Author keywords: Tunnels; Active pressure; Limit analysis; Spatial variability; Local weakness.

Probabilistic analysis of strip footings resting on a spatially random soil using subset simulation approach

The failure probability of geotechnical structures with spatially varying soil properties is generally computed using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methodology. This approach is well known to be very time-consuming when dealing with small failure probabilities. One alternative to MCS is the subset simulation approach. This approach was mainly used in the literature in cases where the uncertain parameters are modelled by random variables. In this article, it is employed in the case where the uncertain parameters are modelled by random fields. This is illustrated through the probabilistic analysis at the serviceability limit state (SLS) of a strip footing resting on a soil with a spatially varying Youngs modulus. The probabilistic numerical results have shown that the probability of exceeding a tolerable vertical displacement (P e) calculated by subset simulation is very close to that computed by MCS methodology but with a significant reduction in the number of realisations. A parametric study to investigate the effect of the soil variability (coefficient of variation and the horizontal and vertical autocorrelation lengths of the Youngs modulus) on P e was presented and discussed. Finally, a reliability-based design of strip footings was presented. It allows one to obtain the probabilistic footing breadth for a given soil variability.

Range of the Safe Retaining Pressures of a Pressurized Tunnel Face by a Probabilistic Approach

A probabilistic analysis of the face stability of a pressurized tunnel is undertaken in this article. First, two existing velocity fields based on the limit analysis theory are briefly described. They allow one to compute the values of the critical pressures of collapse and blowout of a pressurized tunnel face in cases of both frictional and nonfrictional soils. These models, which have the great advantage of a low computational cost, are validated by comparison with a computationally expensive numerical model. Then, an efficient probabilistic method called collocation-based stochastic response surface methodology (CSRSM) is applied on these velocity fields to perform the uncertainty propagation. This method makes it possible to compute the probability of failure of the tunnel face against both collapse and blowout. In the case of a frictional soil, it appears that the blowout of the face is extremely unlikely and that the collapse is the only probable failure mode. On the contrary, in a purely cohesive soil, it appears that both failure modes are likely to appear and should be considered in the analysis. Finally, this paper presents a discussion concerning the application of the proposed probabilistic method for an economic and safe design of a pressurized shield.

Three-dimensional face stability analysis of circular tunnels by a kinematical approach

The upper-bound method of the limit analysis theory is used to calculate the active and passive pressures in front of a pressurized shield. Two translational kinematically admissible failure mechanisms composed of a sequence of truncated rigid cones are considered for the calculation schemes. The numerical results obtained are presented and compared to those given by other authors.

Probabilistic Analysis of Strip Footings Resting on Spatially Varying Soils and Subjected to Vertical or Inclined Loads

A probabilistic analysis of vertically and obliquely loaded strip footings resting on a spatially varying soil is presented. The system responses are the footing vertical and horizontal displacements. The deterministic computation of these system responses is based on numerical simulations using the software FLAC3D. Both cases of isotropic and anisotropic random fields are considered for the soil elastic properties. The uncertainty propagation methodology employed makes use of a nonintrusive approach to build up analytical equations for the two system responses. Thus, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is applied directly on these analytical equations (not on the original deterministic model), which significantly reduces the computation time. In the case of the footing vertical load, a global sensitivity analysis has shown that the soil Youngs modulus E mostly contributes to the variability of the footing vertical displacement, the Poisson ratio being of negligible weight. The decrease in the autocorrelation distances of E has led to a smaller variability of the footing displacement. On the other hand, the increase in the coefficient of variation of E was found to increase both the probabilistic mean and the variability of the footing displacement. Finally, in the inclined loading case, the results of the probability of failure against exceedance of a vertical and/or a horizontal footing displacement are presented and discussed.

Probabilistic analysis of a one-dimensional soil consolidation problem

In this paper, a probabilistic study of a one-dimensional soil consolidation problem has been carried out. The Collocation-based Stochastic Response Surface Method (CSRSM) was employed for the probabilistic analysis. The Young modulus E, the Poisson ratio ν, the hydraulic conductivity k h and the uniform surcharge loading q applied at the ground surface were considered as random variables. The probabilistic system responses considered in the analysis were the surface settlement and the consolidation time. Numerical simulations that make use of Biot theory were used for the computation of these system responses. A global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices was performed to identify the random variables that have the most contribution in the variability of the system responses. Also, a parametric study was undertaken to investigate the effect of the input geotechnical parameters and the statistical parameters of the random variables on the probability distribution functions of the system responses.

Extension of subset simulation approach for uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis

The subset simulation (SS) method is a probabilistic approach which is devoted to efficiently calculating a small failure probability. Contrary to Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) methodology which is very time-expensive when evaluating a small failure probability, the SS method has the advantage of assessing the small failure probability in a much shorter time. However, this approach does not provide any information about the probability density function (PDF) of the system response. In addition, it does not provide any information about the contribution of each input uncertain parameter in the variability of this response. Finally, the SS approach cannot be used to calculate the partial safety factors which are generally obtained from a reliability analysis. To overcome these shortcomings, the SS approach is combined herein with the Collocation-based Stochastic Response Surface Method (CSRSM) to compute these outputs. This combination is carried out by using the different values of the system response obtained by the SS approach for the determination of the unknown coefficients of the polynomial chaos expansion in CSRSM. An example problem that involves the computation of the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing is presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed procedure. The validation of the present method is performed by comparison with MCS methodology applied on the original deterministic model. Finally, a probabilistic parametric study is presented and discussed.

Three-dimensional face stability analysis of circular tunnels by numerical simulations

The face stability analysis of shallow circular tunnels driven by the pressurized shield is investigated by three-dimensional numerical simulations. Both the active and passive soil failures of the tunnel face are considered in the analysis. A comparison is performed between (i) the present numerical solutions of the ultimate pressure of the tunnel face, (ii) the results of the multiblock mechanism of the kinematical approach in limit analysis and (iii) the values of the ultimate tunnel pressure obtained from centrifuge model tests. The shortcomings of the multiblock failure mechanism are presented and discussed.