Abdullah O. Bafail

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN SAUDI ARABIA

Air traffic analysis is an important task both for airlines and the concerned civil aviation authority. This paper addresses analyzing and forecasting international air travel market in Saudi Arabia using econometric models. In this study an attempt is made to develop several models for the air travel demand with different combinations of explanatory variables utilizing stepwise regression technique. The model with the two variables (i.e., total expenditures and population size) is the most appropriate model to represent the demand for international air travel in Saudi Arabia.

Heavy oil upgrading: Unlocking the future fuel supply

ABSTRACT Currently, more than half of the oil reserves (53.3%) in the world are in the form of restorable oils such as heavy oil, extra heavy oil, oil sand, tar sands, oil shale, and bitumen. Heavy oil is one of the petroleum oil varieties that contain long chain hydrocarbons. All types of heavy oils contain asphaltenes and thus are considered very dense substances. The asphaltenes are one of the most complex and heavy organic compounds present in the heavy oil. The heavy oil is defined as one having an American Petroleum Institute scale index equal or smaller than 20°. In conventional refining procedures, heavy oil poses many challenges. Recycling and re-refining are applied techniques for the processing of petroleum based heavy oils into reusable light oils such as gasoline and diesel fuel. In this regard, catalytic pyrolysis and thermal cracking are promising technologies for light oil production. The authors review the heavy oil upgrading processes and their associated challenges with ambition to find cost-effective ways to ensure a constant future fuel supply.

Biodiesel production from non-edible plant oils

Biodiesel is an alternative to petroleum-based fuels derived from a variety of feedstocks, including vegetable oils, animal fats, and waste cooking oil. At present, biodiesel is mainly produced from conventionally grown edible oils such as soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and palm. The cost of biodiesel is the main obstacle to commercialization of the product. Biodiesel produced from edible oils is currently not economically feasible. On the other hand, extensive use of edible oils for biodiesel production may lead to food crisis. These problems can be solved by using low-cost feedstocks such as non-edible oils and waste cooking oils for biodiesel production. This paper reviews numerous options of non-edible oils as the substantial feedstocks, biodiesel processing, and effect of different parameters on production of biodiesel.

Biodiesel production potential from fat fraction of municipal waste in Makkah

In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), millions of Muslims come to perform Pilgrimage every year. Around one million ton of municipal solid waste (MSW) is generated in Makkah city annually. The collected MSW is disposed of in the landfills without any treatment or energy recovery. As a result, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contamination of the soil and water bodies along with leachate and odors are occurring in waste disposal vicinities. The composition of MSW shows that food waste is the largest waste stream (up to 51%) of the total generated MSW. About 13% of the food waste consists of fat content that is equivalent to about 64 thousand tons per year. This study aims to estimate the production potential of biodiesel first time in Makkah city from fat/oil fractions of MSW and highlight its economic and environmental benefits. It has been estimated that 62.53, 117.15 and 6.38 thousand tons of biodiesel, meat and bone meal (MBM) and glycerol respectively could be produced in 2014. A total electricity potential of 852 Gigawatt hour (GWh) from all three sources based on their energy contents, Higher Heating Value (HHV) of 40.17, 18.33 and 19 MJ/kg, was estimated for 2014 that will increase up to 1777 GWh in 2050. The cumulative net savings from landfill waste diversion (256 to 533 million Saudi Riyal (SAR)), carbon credits (46 to 96 million SAR), fuel savings (146 to 303 million SAR) and electricity generation (273 to 569 million SAR) have a potential to add a total net revenue of 611 to 1274 million SAR every year to the Saudi economy, from 2014 to 2050 respectively. However, further studies including real-time data about annual slaughtering activities and the amount of waste generation and its management are critical to decide optimum waste management practices based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methodologies.

Study of heat exposure during Hajj (pilgrimage)

Heat stress presents a main problem to Muslim Hajeej (pilgrims) during Hajj (pilgrimage) season, particularly in summer. Records of the Saudi Ministry of Health show close relation between heat casualties and climatic heat load through consequent Hajj seasons. The present study was conducted to evaluate the climatic heat load in Hajj locations during summer of 1995 as well as just before and during the Hajj season of 1997. Heat measurements including: Ta, Tw, Tg, WBGT, relative humidity and air velocity were conducted through July–September 1995, and on March/April 1997, in 10 Hajj locations at morning, noon, afternoon and night. The highest WBGTs were at Haram court, Ghazzah area and Muna housing area, followed by Arafat areas and Muzdalefah, and the lowest at Azizia area. However, all the WBGTs were considerably higher than the ACGIH-TLV® for safe heat exposure, particularly during daytime; meanwhile, heat exposure considerably exceeded the ASHRAE comfort zone at all locations all times. The natural climatic condition is a major contributing factor to the overall heat load; moreover, potentiated by heat dissipated from Hajj activities, including Hajeej crowds, human activities, and the vehicles’ masses exhaust. This situation is further synergized by some pilgrims’ misbehavior (e.g. living in open sunny areas, using vehicles without roofs) and lack of awareness of the seriousness of heat exposure among them. An outline for a control strategy has been suggested based on planting open areas of Arafat and Muna, provision of air conditioned housing and tents in Muna, segregation of pedestrians from vehicles and their provision of shaded roads and rest areas, establishing more water spatters in Arafat and Muna, checking the performance of large vehicles before issuing their permits for operation during Hajj, providing vehicles parking isolated areas away from Hajeej tents, provision of ample amounts of quality drinking water in all Hajj locations, provision of ample optimal ambulance services, and dissemination of educational information to Hajeej for their taking advantage of Fiqh (religion rules) waivers in performing Hajj rituals to minimize their heat exposure, and for their personal protection.

Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

BackgroundA new coupled global climate model (CGCM) has been developed at the Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King Abdulaziz University (KAU), known as Saudi-KAU CGCM.PurposeThe main aim of the model development is to generate seasonal to subseasonal forecasting and long-term climate simulations.MethodsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM currently includes two atmospheric dynamical cores, two land components, three ocean components, and multiple physical parameterization options. The component modules and parameterization schemes have been adopted from different sources, and some have undergone modifications at CECCR. The model is characterized by its versatility, ease of use, and the physical fidelity of its climate simulations, in both idealized and realistic configurations. A description of the model, its component packages, and parameterizations is provided.ResultsResults from selected configurations demonstrate the model’s ability to reasonably simulate the climate on different time scales. The coupled model simulates El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, which is fundamental for seasonal forecasting. It also simulates Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like disturbances with features similar to observations, although slightly weaker.ConclusionsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM ability to simulate the ENSO and the MJO suggests that it is capable of making useful predictions on subseasonal to seasonal timescales.

Noise Pollution in Metalwork and Woodwork Industries in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This study was conducted in metalwork and woodwork industries in Jeddah Industrial Estate. The purpose of this study was to assess the magnitude of industrial noise exposure and to propose remedial actions. Noise was measured at different times of a day in 28 randomly selected factories and workshops. Results indicated that noise levels varied according to the type and size of a factory, and the type and number of machines used. Mean noise levels in metalwork factories were higher than those in woodwork factories. The highest noise levels were observed while manufacturing cans and forming steel reinforcement for concrete, where noise levels exceed 90 dB(A). All mean noise levels in all studied metalwork factories and in 50% of studied woodwork industries were higher than the standard level of 85 dB(A).

Unconventional energy sources: Safety impacts, opportunities, and economic challenges

ABSTRACT Unconventional hydrocarbon applications have been growing rapidly in recent years. Unconventional oil can be produced from oil sands, oil shale, extra heavy oil, gas to liquids (GTL), and other liquids. Conventional fossil energy will not be enough to meet the continuously increasing need for energy in the future. In this case, renewable energy sources will become important. Conventional oil sources are currently preferred because they are less expensive than unconventional sources. New technologies are being developed to reduce unconventional oil production costs.

Modeling Demand for Air Travel at Jeddah International Airport: an Empirical Study@@@بناء نموذج لطلب السفر الجوي في مطار جدة الدولي : دراسة تجريبية

The primary objective of the work was to suggest a suitable forecasting modeling demand for air travel at Jeddah International Air- port. A large amount of data was collected to provide the basis for the conclusions. Data on traffic intensity at Jeddah International Airport for a period ranging from 1975 to 1996 was used for the analysis. These voluminous figures were fitted to most forecasting models. Results in- dicate that data in all series are trended but non-seasonal. The growth rate was high in the 70s and fluctuating in early 80s and mid 90s. After the analyses, comparison and cross-checking, the authors ar- rived at the conclusion that the non-linear cubic model was the most suitable one for aviation planning in Jeddah city. An examination of the statistical performance measures calculated for all models conclu- sively points to the usefulness of the non-linear cubic model. A fur- ther extension of the work is possible with the development of a Deci- sion Support System (DSS) based on these models so that the aviation planning authority could use it for decision-making purposes as and when required.

Dynamic data systems models for predicting the load demand.

Abstract Accurate prediction for electric demand has become very crucial and important for planning. Several methods are used to capture the behaviour of the electric demand and and use it to predict the future. In this paper an automated software using True basic is developed. The software will fit the best autoregressive moving averages models for the given data via the Dynamic Data Systems approach. The software then uses these models to forecast the hourly load for each day. Validation and statistical results show that these forecast are highly accurate.