Abhijeet Anand

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data

BACKGROUND In 2008 all WHO member states endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality by 2010 over 2000 levels. We developed a model to estimate progress made towards this goal. METHODS We constructed a state-space model with population and immunisation coverage estimates and reported surveillance data to estimate annual national measles cases, distributed across age classes. We estimated deaths by applying age-specific and country-specific case-fatality ratios to estimated cases in each age-country class. FINDINGS Estimated global measles mortality decreased 74% from 535,300 deaths (95% CI 347,200-976,400) in 2000 to 139,300 (71,200-447,800) in 2010. Measles mortality was reduced by more than three-quarters in all WHO regions except the WHO southeast Asia region. India accounted for 47% of estimated measles mortality in 2010, and the WHO African region accounted for 36%. INTERPRETATION Despite rapid progress in measles control from 2000 to 2007, delayed implementation of accelerated disease control in India and continued outbreaks in Africa stalled momentum towards the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal. Intensified control measures and renewed political and financial commitment are needed to achieve mortality reduction targets and lay the foundation for future global eradication of measles. FUNDING US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PMS 5U66/IP000161).

Knowledge of HIV status, sexual risk behaviors and contraceptive need among people living with HIV in Kenya and Malawi.

Background:Several studies support the need for effective interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs). Design:Cross-sectional nationally representative demographic health survey of Kenya (2003) and Malawi (2004–2005) that included HIV testing for consenting adults. Methods:We analyzed demographic health survey data for awareness of HIV status and sexual behaviors of PLWHAs (Kenya: 412; Malawi: 664). The analysis was adjusted (weighted) for the design of the survey and the results are nationally representative. Findings:Eighty-four percent of PLWHAs in Kenya and 86% in Malawi had sex in the past 12 months and in each country, 10% reported using condoms at last intercourse. Among sexually active PLWHAs, 86% in Kenya and 96% in Malawi reported their spouse or cohabiting partner as their most recent partner. In multivariate logistic regression models, married or cohabiting PLWHAs were significantly more likely to be sexually active and less likely to use condoms. Over 80% of PLWHAs were unaware of their HIV status. Of HIV-infected women, nearly three-quarters did not want more children either within the next 2 years or ever, but 32% in Kenya and 20% in Malawi were using contraception. Interpretation:In 2003–2005, majority of PLWHAs in Kenya and Malawi were unaware of their HIV status and were sexually active, especially married or cohabiting PLWHAs. Of HIV-infected women not wanting more children, few used contraception. HIV testing should be expanded, prevention programs should target married or cohabiting couples and family planning services should be integrated with HIV services.

Early priming with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) and intradermal fractional dose IPV administered by a microneedle device: A randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) introduction and phased oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation are essential for eradication of polio. METHODS Healthy 6-week old infants in Bangladesh were randomized to one of five study arms: receipt of trivalent OPV (tOPV) or bivalent OPV (bOPV) at ages 6, 10 and 14 weeks, intramuscular IPV or intradermal one-fifth fractional dose IPV (f-IPV) at ages 6 and 14 weeks, or f-IPV at ages 6 and 14 weeks with bOPV at age 10 weeks (f-IPV/bOPV). All participants received tOPV at age 18 weeks. RESULTS Of 975 infants randomized, 95% (922) completed follow-up. Type 1 seroconversion after 3 doses at 6, 10 and 14 weeks was higher with bOPV compared with tOPV (99% vs 94%, p=0.019). Seroconversions to types 1 and 3 after 2 IPV doses at ages 6 and 14 weeks were no different than after 3 doses of tOPV or bOPV at ages 6, 10 and 14 weeks. A priming response, seroconversion 1 week after IPV at 14 weeks among those who did not seroconvert after IPV at 6 weeks, was observed against poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 in 91%, 84% and 97%, respectively. Compared with IPV, f-IPV failed non-inferiority tests for seroconversion with 1 or 2 doses and priming after 1 dose. DISCUSSION The findings demonstrate considerable priming with IPV at age 6 weeks, comparable immunogenicity of tOPV and bOPV, and inferior immunogenicity of one-fifth f-IPV compared with IPV. If IPV induced priming at age 6 weeks is similar to that at age 14 weeks, IPV could be administered at a younger age and possibly with a higher coverage.

Poliovirus vaccination options for achieving eradication and securing the endgame

In 1988, the World Health Assembly resolved to globally eradicate poliomyelitis. As part of a four-pronged strategy with establishment of enhanced surveillance, institution of national immunization days, strengthening routine immunization, and carrying-out mopping-up activities, oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) was selected as the vaccine-of-choice for eradication. Massive OPV use decreased the number of polio-endemic countries from >125 countries in 1988 to only 3 in 2012 and led to a >99.9% decrease in polio incidence in the corresponding period. In this communication, we will discuss polio vaccination options to accelerate eradication, to mitigate the risks during the planned withdrawal of type 2 OPV, and to secure eradication for future generations.

Interference of Monovalent, Bivalent, and Trivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccines on Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccine Immunogenicity in Rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND Trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is known to interfere with monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) immunogenicity. The interference caused by bivalent and monovalent OPV formulations, which will be increasingly used globally in coming years, has not been examined. We conducted a post hoc analysis to assess the effect of coadministration of different OPV formulations on RV1 immunogenicity. METHODS Healthy infants in Matlab, Bangladesh, were randomized to receive 3 doses of monovalent OPV type 1 or bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 at either 6, 8, and 10 or 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age or trivalent OPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. All infants received 2 doses of RV1 at about 6 and 10 weeks of age. Concomitant administration was defined as RV1 and OPV given on the same day; staggered administration as RV1 and OPV given ≥1 day apart. Rotavirus seroconversion was defined as a 4-fold rise in immunoglobulin A titer from before the first RV1 dose to ≥3 weeks after the second RV1 dose. RESULTS There were no significant differences in baseline RV1 immunogenicity among the 409 infants included in the final analysis. Infants who received RV1 and OPV concomitantly, regardless of OPV formulation, were less likely to seroconvert (47%; 95% confidence interval, 39%-54%) than those who received both vaccines staggered ≥1 day (63%; 57%-70%; P < .001). For staggered administration, we found no evidence that the interval between RV1 and OPV administration affected RV1 immunogenicity. CONCLUSIONS Coadministration of monovalent, bivalent, or trivalent OPV seems to lower RV1 immunogenicity. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION NCT01633216.

Unexpectedly high HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Bangkok, Thailand in a respondent-driven sampling survey.

The pattern of sex work in Thailand has shifted substantially over the last two decades from direct commercial establishments to indirect venues and non-venue-based settings. This respondent-driven sampling survey was conducted in Bangkok in 2007 among female sex workers (FSW) in non-venue-based settings to pilot a new approach to surveillance among this hidden population. Fifteen initial participants recruited 707 consenting participants who completed a behavioural questionnaire, and provided oral fluid for HIV testing, and urine for sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing. Overall HIV prevalence was 20.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.3–24.7). Three-quarters of women were street-based (75.8%, 95% CI 69.9–81.1) who had an especially high HIV prevalence (22.7%, 95% CI 18.2–28.4); about 10 times higher than that found in routine sentinel surveillance among venue-based FSW (2.5%). STI prevalence (Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae) was 8.7% (95% CI 6.4–10.8) and 1.0% (95% CI 0.2–1.9), respectively. Lower price per sex act and a current STI infection were independently associated with HIV infection (P < 0.05). High HIV prevalence found among FSW participating in the survey, particularly non-venue-based FSW, identifies need for further prevention efforts. In addition, it identifies a higher-risk segment of FSW not reached through routine sentinel surveillance but accessible through this survey method.

Site factors may be more important than participant factors in explaining HIV test acceptance in the prevention of mother- to-child HIV transmission programme in Kenya, 2005

Objective  To determine the role of participant factors on the acceptance of a Prevention‐of‐Mother‐to‐Child (PMTCT) HIV test programme in a situation with an opt‐out testing strategy.

Immunogenicity of three doses of bivalent, trivalent, or type 1 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines with a 2 week interval between doses in Bangladesh: an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND The provision of several doses of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV1) and bivalent OPV1 and 3 (bOPV) vaccines through campaigns is essential to stop the circulation of remaining wild polioviruses. Our study aimed to assess the shortening of intervals between campaigns with bOPV and mOPV1 and to assess the immunogenicity of bOPV in routine immunisation schedules. METHODS We did an open-label, non-inferiority, five-arm, randomised controlled trial in Bangladesh. We recruited healthy infants aged 6 weeks at 42 immunisation clinics and randomly assigned them (with blocks of 15, three per group) to receive a short three-dose schedule of bOPV (bOPV short) or mOPV1 (mOPV1 short) with the first dose given at age 6 weeks, the second at age 8 weeks, and the third at age 10 weeks; or to a standard three-dose schedule of bOPV (bOPV standard) or mOPV1 (mOPV1 standard) or trivalent OPV (tOPV standard) with the first dose given at age 6 weeks, the second at 10 weeks, and the third at age 14 weeks. The primary outcome was the proportion of infants with antibody seroconversion for type 1, type 2, and type 3 polioviruses. The primary, modified intention-to-treat analysis included all patients who had testable serum samples before and after receiving at least one OPV dose. We used a 10% margin to establish non-inferiority for bOPV groups versus mOPV1 groups in seroconversion for type 1 poliovirus, and for bOPV1 short versus bOPV1 standard for types 1 and 3. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01633216, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS Between May 13, 2012, and Jan 21, 2013, we randomly assigned 1000 infants to our study groups. 927 completed all study visits and were included in the primary analysis. Seroconversion for type-1 poliovirus was recorded in 183 (98%, 95% CI 95-100) of 186 infants given bOPV short, 179 (97%, 94-99) of 184 given bOPV standard, 180 (96%, 92-98) of 188 given mOPV short, 178 (99%, 97-100) of 179 given mOPV1 standard, and 175 (92%, 87-96) of 190 given tOPV standard. Seroconversion for type 2 was noted in 16 infants (9%, 5-14) on bOPV short, 29 (16%, 11-22) on bOPV standard, 19 (10%, 7-15) on mOPV short, 33 (18%, 13-25) on mOPV1 standard, and 182 (96%, 92-98) on tOPV standard. Seroconversion for type 3 was noted in 175 infants (94%, 90-97) on bOPV short, 176 (96%, 92-98) on bOPV standard, 18 (10%, 6-15) on mOPV short, 25 (14%, 10-20) on mOPV1 standard, and 167 (88%, 83-92) on tOPV standard. The short schedules for mOPV1 and bOPV elicited a non-inferior antibody response compared with the bOPV standard schedule. 104 adverse events were reported in 100 infants during follow up. 36 of these events needed admission to hospital (32 were pneumonia, two were vomiting or feeding disorders, one was septicaemia, and one was diarrhoea with severe malnutrition). One of the infants admitted to hospital for pneumonia died 5 days after admission. No adverse event was attributed to the vaccines. INTERPRETATION Our trial showed that three doses of mOPV1 or bOPV with a short schedule of 2 week intervals between doses induces an immune response similar to that obtained with the standard schedule of giving doses at 4 week intervals. These findings support the use of these vaccines in campaigns done at short intervals to rapidly increase population immunity against polioviruses to control outbreaks or prevent transmission in high-risk areas. FUNDING Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and UNICEF.

Estimating the Likely Coverage of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in Routine Immunization: Evidence From Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND The Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) has recommended introduction of at least 1 dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) at ≥14 weeks of age through the routine immunization program in countries currently not using IPV. METHODS We analyzed all available unrestricted data obtained from the Demographic and Health Surveys since 2005 in sub-Saharan Africa (31 countries) and in South and Southeast Asia (9 countries) to determine coverage of the following injectable vaccines delivered through the routine immunization schedule: diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine dose 1 (DTP1), DTP2, DTP3, and measles vaccine. Coverage with these vaccines was used as a proxy measure of likely 1- and 2-dose IPV coverage. RESULTS Coverage with 1 dose of IPV is expected to be lowest when offered with DTP3 (median coverage, 73%) and highest when offered with DTP1 (median coverage, 90%). The median DTP1-DTP3 drop-out rate was 14%, which equates to an additional 12 million children not receiving IPV if IPV is offered with DTP3, rather than with DTP1. An increased geographical clustering of children who have not received IPV is expected in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia if IPV is offered with DTP3, rather than with DTP1. Coverage with 2 doses of IPV is expected to be lowest if IPV is administered with DTP3 and measles vaccine (69%) and highest if administered with DTP1 and DTP2 (84%). CONCLUSIONS Coverage with 1 dose of IPV is expected to be lowest if it is administered at the DTP3 visit. At present, there is insufficient evidence to determine whether the SAGE-recommended IPV schedule for the polio endgame would maximize population immunity to type 2 poliovirus.

Immunogenicity to poliovirus type 2 following two doses of fractional intradermal inactivated poliovirus vaccine: A novel dose sparing immunization schedule

INTRODUCTION The polio eradication endgame strategic plan calls for the sequential removal of Sabin poliovirus serotypes from the trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV), starting with type 2, and the introduction of ≥1 dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), to maintain an immunity base against poliovirus type 2. The global removal of oral poliovirus type 2 was successfully implemented in May 2016. However, IPV supply constraints has prevented introduction in 21 countries and led to complete stock-out in >20 countries. METHODS We conducted a literature review and contacted corresponding authors of recent studies with fractional-dose IPV (fIPV), one-fifth of intramuscular dose administered intradermally, to conduct additional type 2 immunogenicity analyses of two fIPV doses compared with one full-dose IPV. RESULTS Four studies were identified that assessed immunogenicity of two fIPV doses compared to one full-dose IPV. Two fractional doses are more immunogenic than 1 full-dose, with type 2 seroconversion rates improving between absolute 19-42% (median: 37%, p<0.001) and relative increase of 53-125% (median: 82%), and antibody titer to type 2 increasing by 2-32-fold (median: 10-fold). Early age of administration and shorter intervals between doses were associated with lower immunogenicity. DISCUSSION Overall, two fIPV doses are more immunogenic than a single full-dose, associated with significantly increased seroconversion rates and antibody titers. Two fIPV doses together use two-fifth of the vaccine compared to one full-dose IPV. In response to the current IPV shortage, a schedule of two fIPV doses at ages 6 and 14weekshas been endorsed by technical oversight committees and has been introduced in some affected countries.