Abir Jaafar Hussain

Non-stationary and stationary prediction of financial time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural network

This research focuses on using various higher order neural networks (HONNs) to predict the upcoming trends of financial signals. Two HONNs models: the Pi-Sigma neural network and the ridge polynomial neural network were used. Furthermore, a novel HONN architecture which combines the properties of both higher order and recurrent neural network was constructed, and is called dynamic ridge polynomial neural network (DRPNN). Extensive simulations for the prediction of one and five steps ahead of financial signals were performed. Simulation results indicate that DRPNN in most cases demonstrated advantages in capturing chaotic movement in the signals with an improvement in the profit return and rapid convergence over other network models.

Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network: Forecasting the univariate non-stationary and stationary trading signals

This paper considers the prediction of noisy time series data, specifically, the prediction of financial signals. A novel Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN) for financial time series prediction is presented which combines the properties of both higher order and recurrent neural network. In an attempt to overcome the stability and convergence problems in the proposed DRPNN, the stability convergence of DRPNN is derived to ensure that the network posses a unique equilibrium state. In order to provide a more accurate comparative evaluation in terms of profit earning, empirical testing used in this work encompass not only on the more traditional criteria of NMSE, which concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target, but also on financial metrics where the objective is to use the networks predictions to generate profit. Extensive simulations for the prediction of one and five steps ahead of stationary and non-stationary time series were performed. The resulting forecast made by DRPNN shows substantial profits on financial historical signals when compared to various neural networks; the Pi-Sigma Neural Network, the Functional Link Neural Network, the feedforward Ridge Polynomial Neural Network, and the Multilayer Perceptron. Simulation results indicate that DRPNN in most cases demonstrated advantages in capturing chaotic movement in the financial signals with an improvement in the profit return and rapid convergence over other network models.

Prediction of preterm deliveries from EHG signals using machine learning.

There has been some improvement in the treatment of preterm infants, which has helped to increase their chance of survival. However, the rate of premature births is still globally increasing. As a result, this group of infants are most at risk of developing severe medical conditions that can affect the respiratory, gastrointestinal, immune, central nervous, auditory and visual systems. In extreme cases, this can also lead to long-term conditions, such as cerebral palsy, mental retardation, learning difficulties, including poor health and growth. In the US alone, the societal and economic cost of preterm births, in 2005, was estimated to be

Recurrent pi-sigma networks for DPCM image coding

26.2 billion, per annum. In the UK, this value was close to £2.95 billion, in 2009. Many believe that a better understanding of why preterm births occur, and a strategic focus on prevention, will help to improve the health of children and reduce healthcare costs. At present, most methods of preterm birth prediction are subjective. However, a strong body of evidence suggests the analysis of uterine electrical signals (Electrohysterography), could provide a viable way of diagnosing true labour and predict preterm deliveries. Most Electrohysterography studies focus on true labour detection during the final seven days, before labour. The challenge is to utilise Electrohysterography techniques to predict preterm delivery earlier in the pregnancy. This paper explores this idea further and presents a supervised machine learning approach that classifies term and preterm records, using an open source dataset containing 300 records (38 preterm and 262 term). The synthetic minority oversampling technique is used to oversample the minority preterm class, and cross validation techniques, are used to evaluate the dataset against other similar studies. Our approach shows an improvement on existing studies with 96% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and a 95% area under the curve value with 8% global error using the polynomial classifier.

Financial time series prediction using polynomial pipelined neural networks

Abstract This work proposes a new recurrent polynomial neural network that utilises both the temporal dynamics of the image formation process and the multi-linear interactions between the pixels for 1D/2D predictive image coding. The network consists of a layer of summing units followed by a product unit and incorporates a feedback link from the output to the input layer. It is trained using a small size training set through dynamic backpropagation. Its performance is evaluated on a database of 15 images and compared to the higher-order neural network, the feedforward pi-sigma neural network, and the standard linear predictor.

Application of Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks to Financial Time Series Prediction

This paper proposes a novel type of higher-order pipelined neural network: the polynomial pipelined neural network. The proposed network is constructed from a number of higher-order neural networks concatenated with each other to predict highly nonlinear and nonstationary signals based on the engineering concept of divide and conquer. The polynomial pipelined neural network is used to predict the exchange rate between the US dollar and three other currencies. In this application, two sets of experiments are carried out. In the first set, the input data are pre-processed between 0 and 1 and passed to the neural networks as nonstationary data. In the second set of experiments, the nonstationary input signals are transformed into one step relative increase in price. The network demonstrates more accurate forecasting and an improvement in the signal to noise ratio over a number of benchmarked neural networks.

Automatic Epileptic Seizure Detection Using Scalp EEG and Advanced Artificial Intelligence Techniques

This paper presents a novel application of ridge polynomial neural network to forecast the future trends of financial time series data. The prediction capability of ridge polynomial neural network was tested on four different data sets; the US/EU exchange rate, the UK/EU exchange rate, the JP/EU exchange rate, and the IBM common stock closing price. The performance of the network is benchmarked against the performance of multilayer perceptron, functional link neural network, and pi-sigma neural network. The predictions demonstrated that ridge polynomial neural network brings in more return in comparison to other models. It is observed that the network is able to find an appropriate input output mapping of various chaotic financial time series data with a good performance in learning speed and generalization capability.

The application of ridge polynomial neural network to multi-step ahead financial time series prediction

The epilepsies are a heterogeneous group of neurological disorders and syndromes characterised by recurrent, involuntary, paroxysmal seizure activity, which is often associated with a clinicoelectrical correlate on the electroencephalogram. The diagnosis of epilepsy is usually made by a neurologist but can be difficult to be made in the early stages. Supporting paraclinical evidence obtained from magnetic resonance imaging and electroencephalography may enable clinicians to make a diagnosis of epilepsy and investigate treatment earlier. However, electroencephalogram capture and interpretation are time consuming and can be expensive due to the need for trained specialists to perform the interpretation. Automated detection of correlates of seizure activity may be a solution. In this paper, we present a supervised machine learning approach that classifies seizure and nonseizure records using an open dataset containing 342 records. Our results show an improvement on existing studies by as much as 10% in most cases with a sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 94%, and area under the curve of 98% with a 6% global error using a k-class nearest neighbour classifier. We propose that such an approach could have clinical applications in the investigation of patients with suspected seizure disorders.

Hybrid Neural Network Predictive-Wavelet Image Compression System

Motivated by the slow learning properties of multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) which utilize computationally intensive training algorithms, such as the backpropagation learning algorithm, and can get trapped in local minima, this work deals with ridge polynomial neural networks (RPNN), which maintain fast learning properties and powerful mapping capabilities of single layer high order neural networks. The RPNN is constructed from a number of increasing orders of Pi–Sigma units, which are used to capture the underlying patterns in financial time series signals and to predict future trends in the financial market. In particular, this paper systematically investigates a method of pre-processing the financial signals in order to reduce the influence of their trends. The performance of the networks is benchmarked against the performance of MLPs, functional link neural networks (FLNN), and Pi–Sigma neural networks (PSNN). Simulation results clearly demonstrate that RPNNs generate higher profit returns with fast convergence on various noisy financial signals.

Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks in Exchange Rates Time Series Forecasting

Abstract This paper considers a novel image compression technique called hybrid predictive wavelet coding. The new proposed technique combines the properties of predictive coding and discrete wavelet coding. In contrast to JPEG2000, the image data values are pre-processed using predictive coding to remove inter-pixel redundancy. The error values, which are the difference between the original and the predicted values, are discrete wavelet coding transformed. In this case, a nonlinear neural network predictor is utilised in the predictive coding system. The simulation results indicated that the proposed technique can achieve good compressed images at high decomposition levels in comparison to JPEG2000.