Abner W. Womack

Wheat Acreage Response: Investigation a Regional Econometric Investigation

An econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast—soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.

Impacts of Trade and Macroeconomic Linkages on Canadian Agriculture

Implications of trade and macroeconomic policies on the performance of the Canadian agricultural sector were analyzed using a structural econometric model. Results indicated that had Canada been more integrated with the world economy, its volume of trade would have been 3% higher than its actual level, and much greater price incentives for agriculture would have occurred. Copyright 1998, Oxford University Press.

Modeling the impacts of two agricultural policies on the US livestock sector: A systems approach

Abstract A framework for assessing the impacts of alternative agricultural policies on producers, consumers, and other interest groups through the use of an econometric model of the major crop and livestock commodities in the US is described. The model is linked at various stages of the market channel to allow commodity interaction and feedback. Two farm policy alternatives are described and the parameters of these options are imposed on the dynamic system. Significantly different outcomes are generated by the simulations and suggest that substantial adjustments may be required of producers of livestock and consumers of meat, depending on the policy option.

An analysis of supply response among cotton growers in Malawi

Abstract Cotton is a traditional smallholder cash crop in Malawi. Its production in recent years has stagnated as the area under the crop has declined considerably since 1975. Much of the criticism for the stagnant production and declining acreage has been levelled at producer prices. This paper investigates the responsiveness of cotton producers to changes in these producer prices. A Nerlovian partial adjustment model is used to test the response. The results indicate that producers are responsive to price incentives but that their response is inelastic. Both short- and long-run price elasticity estimates are less than unity (0·13 and 0·46, respectively) and the coefficient of adjustment which measures the speed of adjustment is only 0·212. Prices of cotton and competing crops, area under cotton in the preceding season and weather conditions are found to be important factors to the producers in their land allocation decision making process.

Live Hog and Pork Imports: Past and Projected Consequences for the U.S. Pork Sector

The U.S. pork sector is modeled to simulate the effects of alternative import levels on prices, production, consumption, farm receipts, and consumer expenditures. Over the 1983-1985 period, producers annually received

Impacts of Alternative Programs Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis

600 million less due to increasing imports than if imports had remained at the 1979-1982 average. Farm prices and slaughter were lower by

An Empirical Evaluation of the Triple Base Program in Corn

2.21 per hundredweight and .1 million head annually, respectively. Four simulations reflecting alternative import paths over the period 1986-1992 were examined. With lower imports (relative to current levels), production and farm prices rise significantly in the long run; consumers purchase less and pay more.

AN EVALUATION OF THE 1981 FARM PROGRAM FOR CROPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 1985 FARM BILL

Examines the impacts of alternative programs for commodity programs in the U.S. Difference between the Food Security Act of 1985 and the 1981 farm bill; Suggested changes in the commodity program provisions; Level and value of agricultural exports.

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The triple base program that was instituted by the 1990 Farm Bill is a significant departure from previous programs. Hence, current acreage response models are not generally suitable for evaluating the effects of the new program. This article shows how an existing acreage supply model that was estimated using data prior to the introduction of the triple base program can be modified in order to approximate the effects of the new program on corn acreage. The outcome in corn acreage for the years 1987 to 1990 if the triple base program would have been in effect is compared to the actual data.

WHEAT ACREAGE RESPONSE: A REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION

The cornerstone of the 1977 and 1981 Farm impacts that should not occur under the efficient Bills for crops is a buffer stock-supply manageoperation of a supply management strategy. ment program involving the farmer-owned reserve and acreage adjustment instruments. GRAIN MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS Among the several reasons normally cited for adopting this type program is price and income As indicated by Burntein in reviewing the stability. However, recent swings in commodity 1977 Farm Bill, major reasons for implementing prices, net farm income and government prothe reserve program were to (1) moderate margram costs have stimulated widespread interest ket instability, (2) maintain reasonable price in farm program redesign and modification in levels for producers and consumers, and (3) 1985. Before joining this chorus, it may be provide reliable supplies for domestic and forworthwhile to reexamine the operation of this eign markets. It was implicitly assumed that the supply management program to discern the feamanaged buffer stocks would be more effective sibility of this type of design in the current i producing these results than the free market, economic-political environment. In order to acr that the free market would be less efficient complish this objective, an econometric model i assuring reserve levels necessary to produce of the U.S. crops livestock sector was utilized. these results. Four program designs were simulated over the Implicit in these criteria is the notion of the crop years 1970 through 1979, which included value of price stabilization, since the buffer periods of scarcity and surplus. These options stock system addresses price stabilization as opemploy the supply management program with posed to price support. It is often argued that four alternative management strategies, some price stability for agricultural producers leads relying more heavily on acreage reduction and to greater efficiency (Hallett, Houck). Also, reothers on the reserve program. Conclusions serves in lean years reduce the danger of food drawn from these program simulations serve as shortage. This, in turn, reduces sharp price a focal point for evaluating the 1982-83 Rechanges for grain inputs to the livestock and duced Acreage Program and the Payment-Infood grain sectors, resulting in less erratic price Kind Program in 1983-84. changes at the retail market. Thus, stabilization has a dual focus, price protection for the proIn general these results indicate that the supducer and the consumer. Major questions for a ply management program can be balanced or managed reserve program are the price band to imbalanced depending upon the set of manbe used in its operation and the level of stocks agement rules that are followed. By implication, required to assure that prices within the range consistent adherence to the management rules can be maintained at minimum government cost. over time is desirable unless there is evidence of imbalance. A conclusion of this paper is that The 1977 Farm Program for Wheat and the significant players in the political process Feedgrains of management and operation (Administration, Congress, and Budget) did not reach comproThe 1977 Farm Bill adopted by the Congress mises on program design in 1982-83 and 1983combined a modified buffer stock program 84 that conform to a balanced set of rules. As (farmer owned reserve) with an acreage ada result, the industry has been subjected to justment program. While price corridors and