Abul Shamsuddin

Integration and interdependence of stock and foreign exchange markets: an Australian perspective

Abstract This paper examines the integration of the Australian stock market with its two leading trading partners, the US and Japan. In investigating the extent of integration, this study takes into account the interdependence between foreign exchange rates and stock prices, since exchange rates influence international competitiveness of firms, and, via interest rates, the cost of capital. The results indicate that there was a stable long-run relationship among the Australian, US and Japanese markets prior to the Asian crisis but that this relationship disappeared in the post-Asian crisis period. An analysis of the short-run dynamic linkages among markets suggests that, following the Asian crisis, the US influence on the Australian market diminished while the influence of Japan remained at a modest level. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis indicates only a contemporaneous transmission of shocks from one market to other markets. Confidence intervals for impulse responses are estimated using the bootstrap-after-bootstrap method.

Exports and economic growth in Bangladesh

This study investigates the effect of exports on economic growth in Bangladesh, based on a two-sector growth model. Using annual data for the period 1961-92, the article estimates an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model of economic growth, which is found to capture the volatility of the Bangladesh economy. The results suggest that an increase in the share of investment in GDP significantly increases the growth rate of GDP in normal years, but negligibly increases GDP growth in abnormal years. Abnormalities in the economy arise from war, political turmoil and natural disasters. The key finding is that export growth has significantly increased economic growth through its positive impact on total factor productivity in the economy. The contribution of exports to economic growth was more pronounced during 1982-90 when the government pursued a policy of trade liberalisation and structural reform, and political turmoil was not persistent. This finding is not sensitive to the choice of the model or the estimation technique.

Cointegration test of the monetary theory of inflation and forecasting accuracy of the univariate and vector ARMA models of inflation

Conducts both the cointegration test of the monetary theory of inflation and the Granger‐causality test between the variables in the system, and also develops univariate and multivariate time series models to forecast inflation rates. Quarterly time series data for Pakistan, from 1972‐2 to 1993‐4 is used for empirical investigation. Results suggest no cointegrating or long‐run relationship between the variables in the monetary model. Observes that there is some evidence of Granger‐causality running from inflation to output growth. Comparison of out‐of‐sample quarterly forecasts for the 1988‐1 to 1993‐4 period are made for univariate and vector ARMA models of inflation. States that the forecasting accuracy of the multivariate ARMA model is not statistically different from that of the univariate ARMA model.

Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short-horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple-horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross-sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita GDP, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short selling restrictions are correlated with cross-market variations in return predictability.

Expectation formation mechanisms, profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility

An attempt is made to identify the expectation formation mechanism dominating the foreign exchange market and to demonstrate that exchange rate volatility can be attributed to the heterogeneity of traders with respect to expectation formation. The criterion used to identify the dominance of a particular mechanism is the profitability of trading based on that mechanism. It is concluded that mixed and extrapolative expectations are the dominant mechanisms, that market participants follow some sort of a herd behaviour, and that they pay attention to the expectations of other participants. It is also found that the heterogeneity of market participants with respect to expectation formation goes a long way towards explaining volatility.

Public pension and wealth inequality in Canada

A methodology for estimating public pension wealth is presented and employed to cross-sectional data of Canadian households. Public pension wealth is measured as the present value of the future stream of benefits from public retirement savings plans in Canada. These plans include the Canada/Quebec pension plan, old age security and guaranteed income supplements. The results show that public pension wealth constituted 47% of household entitlement wealth and that the provision of public pension benefits significantly reduced wealth inequality in Canada.

Short and Long Term Effects of World Exposition 1986 on US Demand for British Columbia Tourism

This study is an attempt to evaluate the short- and long-term economic effects of World Exposition 1986 on US demand for British Columbia tourism by integrating Box-Jenkins time series analysis with the theory of consumer demand. The number of more-than-one-day US visitors to British Columbia is used as the measure of demand. Intervention and transfer function models are employed for the estimates which are made separately for US visitors arriving by car, automobile and by plane. The conclusions drawn are that during the six months of Expo 86, an additional 1.58 million more-than-one-day US visitors were attracted to British Columbia (1.41 million by automobile and 0.17 million by aeroplane). The long-term or post-Expo effects of Expo 86 are found to be very large (probably larger in total than the short-term economic benefits). These long-term economic benefits result from the post-Expo visitors who have returned to British Columbia as a result of the world-wide exposure of the Vancouver area by the fair. We have considered only more-than-one-day US visitors to Expo 86 (only part of all visitors to the fair) and only the 1987–93 post-Expo time period, and with that limited visitor group, and that limited time period, we still find long-term economic benefits of

A closer look at return predictability of the US stock market: evidence from new panel variance ratio tests

428.9 million (about half the estimated total short-term economic benefits). These estimates take account of the effects of changes in the US–Canada foreign exchange rate, the US travel price index, the BC travel price index and US personal disposable income over the 1981–93 period.

Immigration and the unemployment benefit programme in Australia

This paper examines the return predictability of the US stock market using portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market ratio and industry. We use novel panel variance ratio tests, based on the wild bootstrap proposed in this paper, which exhibit desirable size and power properties in small samples. We have found evidence that stock returns have been highly predictable from 1964 to 1996, except for a period leading to the 1987 crash and its aftermath. After 1997, stock returns have been unpredictable overall. At a disaggregated level, we find evidence that large-cap portfolios have been priced more efficiently than small- or medium-cap portfolios; and that the stock returns from high-tech industries are far less predictable than those from non-high-tech industries.

Evaluation of alternative leading indicators of British Columbia industrial employment

A widely held view is that immigrants contribute to public debt through their over representation in the unemployment benefit programme. An empirical investigation, based on the 1990 Income Distribution Survey, finds support for this view. In contrast to the US and Canadian studies, this paper observes that the probability of receiving unemployment benefits is higher for immigrants than the native-born population and immigrants, who participate in the unemployment benefit programme, also receive a greater amount of unemployment benefits.