Achim Wolf

Premature mortality in epilepsy and the role of psychiatric comorbidity: a total population study

Summary Background Epilepsy is associated with high rates of premature mortality, but the contribution of psychiatric comorbidity is uncertain. We assessed the prevalence and risks of premature mortality from external causes such as suicide, accidents, and assaults in people with epilepsy with and without psychiatric comorbidity. Methods We studied all individuals born in Sweden between 1954 and 2009 with inpatient and outpatient diagnoses of epilepsy (n=69 995) for risks and causes of premature mortality. Patients were compared with age-matched and sex-matched general population controls (n=660 869) and unaffected siblings (n=81 396). Sensitivity analyses were done to investigate whether these odds differed by sex, age, seizure types, comorbid psychiatric diagnosis, and different time periods after epilepsy diagnosis. Results 6155 (8.8%) people with epilepsy died during follow-up, at a median age of 34·5 (IQR 21·0–44·0) years with substantially elevated odds of premature mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of 11·1 [95% CI 10·6–11·6] compared with general population controls, and 11·4 [10·4–12·5] compared with unaffected siblings). Of those deaths, 15·8% (n=972) were from external causes, with high odds for non-vehicle accidents (aOR 5·5, 95 % CI 4·7–6·5) and suicide (3·7, 3·3–4·2). Of those who died from external causes, 75·2% had comorbid psychiatric disorders, with strong associations in individuals with co-occurring depression (13·0, 10·3–16·6) and substance misuse (22·4, 18·3–27·3), compared with patients with no epilepsy and no psychiatric comorbidity. Interpretation Reducing premature mortality from external causes of death should be a priority in epilepsy management. Psychiatric comorbidity plays an important part in the premature mortality seen in epilepsy. The ability of health services and public health measures to prevent such deaths requires review. Funding Wellcome Trust, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, and the Swedish Research Council.

Prevalence of tuberculosis, hepatitis C virus, and HIV in homeless people: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary Background 100 million people worldwide are homeless; rates of mortality and morbidity are high in this population. The contribution of infectious diseases to these adverse outcomes is uncertain. Accurate estimates of prevalence data are important for public policy and planning and development of clinical services tailored to homeless people. We aimed to establish the prevalence of tuberculosis, hepatitis C virus, and HIV in homeless people. Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature for studies of the prevalence of tuberculosis, hepatitis C virus, and HIV in homeless populations. We also searched bibliographic indices, scanned reference lists, and corresponded with authors. We explored potential sources of heterogeneity in the estimates by metaregression analysis and calculated prevalence ratios to compare prevalence estimates for homeless people with those for the general population. Findings We identified 43 eligible surveys with a total population of 63 812 (59 736 homeless individuals when duplication due to overlapping samples was accounted for). Prevalences ranged from 0·2% to 7·7% for tuberculosis, 3·9% to 36·2% for hepatitis C virus infection, and 0·3% to 21·1% for HIV infection. We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates for tuberculosis, hepatitis C virus infection, and HIV infection (all Cochrans χ2 significant at p<0·0001; I2=83%, 95% CI 76–89; 95%, 94–96; and 94%, 93–95; respectively). Prevalence ratios ranged from 34 to 452 for tuberculosis, 4 to 70 for hepatitis C virus infection, and 1 to 77 for HIV infection. Tuberculosis prevalence was higher in studies in which diagnosis was by chest radiography than in those which used other diagnostic methods and in countries with a higher general population prevalence than in those with a lower general prevalence. Prevalence of HIV infection was lower in newer studies than in older ones and was higher in the USA than in the rest of the world. Interpretation Heterogeneity in prevalence estimates for tuberculosis, hepatitis C virus, and HIV suggests the need for local surveys to inform development of health services for homeless people. The role of targeted and population-based measures in the reduction of risks of infectious diseases, premature mortality, and other adverse outcomes needs further examination. Guidelines for screening and treatment of infectious diseases in homeless people might need to be reviewed. Funding The Wellcome Trust.

Suicide, fatal injuries, and other causes of premature mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury: a 41-year Swedish population study.

UNLABELLED : IMPORTANCE Longer-term mortality in individuals who have survived a traumatic brain injury (TBI) is not known. OBJECTIVES To examine the relationship between TBI and premature mortality, particularly by external causes, and determine the role of psychiatric comorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS We studied all persons born in 1954 or later in Sweden who received inpatient and outpatient International Classification of Diseases-based diagnoses of TBI from 1969 to 2009 (n = 218,300). We compared mortality rates 6 months or more after TBI to general population controls matched on age and sex (n = 2,163,190) and to unaffected siblings of patients with TBI (n = 150,513). Furthermore, we specifically examined external causes of death (suicide, injury, or assault). We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate whether mortality rates differed by sex, age at death, severity (including concussion), and different follow-up times after diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of premature death by external causes in patients with TBI compared with general population controls. RESULTS Among those who survived 6 months after TBI, we found a 3-fold increased odds of mortality (AOR, 3.2; 95% CI, 3.0-3.4) compared with general population controls and an adjusted increased odds of mortality of 2.6 (95% CI, 2.3-2.8) compared with unaffected siblings. Risks of mortality from external causes were elevated, including for suicide (AOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.9-3.7), injuries (AOR, 4.3; 95% CI, 3.8-4.8), and assault (AOR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.7-5.7). Among those with TBI, absolute rates of death were high in those with any psychiatric or substance abuse comorbidity (3.8% died prematurely) and those with solely substance abuse (6.2%) compared with those without comorbidity (0.5%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Traumatic brain injury is associated with substantially elevated risks of premature mortality, particularly for suicide, injuries, and assaults, even after adjustment for sociodemographic and familial factors. Current clinical guidelines may need revision to reduce mortality risks beyond the first few months after injury and address high rates of psychiatric comorbidity and substance abuse.

Violent crime, suicide, and premature mortality in patients with schizophrenia and related disorders: a 38-year total population study in Sweden

Summary Background People with schizophrenia and related disorders are at an increased risk of adverse outcomes, including conviction of a violent offence, suicide, and premature mortality. However, the rates of, and risk factors for, these outcomes need clarification as a basis for population-based and targeted interventions. We aimed to determine rates and risk factors for these outcomes, and investigate to what extent they are shared across outcomes and are specific to schizophrenia and related disorders. Methods We undertook a total population cohort study in Sweden of 24 297 patients with schizophrenia and related disorders between January, 1972 and December, 2009. Patients were matched by age and sex to people from the general population (n=485 940) and also to unaffected sibling controls (n=26 357). First, we investigated rates of conviction of a violent offence, suicide, and premature mortality, with follow-up until conviction of a violent offence, emigration, death, or end of follow-up (Dec 31, 2009), whichever occurred first. Second, we analysed associations between these adverse outcomes and sociodemographic, individual, familial, and distal risk factors, for men and women separately, with Cox proportional hazards models. Finally, we assessed time trends in adverse outcomes between 1972 and 2009, for which we compared patients with unaffected siblings, and analysed associations with changes in the number of nights spent in inpatient beds in psychiatric facilities nationwide. Findings Within 5 years of their initial diagnosis, 13·9% of men and 4·7% of women with schizophrenia and related disorders had a major adverse outcome (10·7% of men and 2·7% of women were convicted of a violent offence, and 3·3% of men and 2·0% of women died prematurely of any cause). During the study, the adjusted odds ratio of any adverse outcomes for patients compared with general population controls was 7·5 (95% CI 7·2–7·9) in men and 11·1 (10·2–12·1) in women. Three risk factors that were present before diagnosis were predictive of any adverse outcome: drug use disorders, criminality, and self-harm, which were also risk factors for these outcomes in unaffected siblings and in the general population. Over the period 1973–2009, the odds of these outcomes increased in patients with schizophrenia and related disorders compared with unaffected siblings. Interpretation Schizophrenia and related disorders are associated with substantially increased rates of violent crime, suicide, and premature mortality. Risk factors for these three outcomes included both those specific to individuals with schizophrenia and related disorders, and those shared with the general population. Therefore, a combination of population-based and targeted strategies might be necessary to reduce the substantial rates of adverse outcomes in patients with schizophrenia and related disorders. Funding Wellcome Trust and The Swedish Research Council.

Depression and violence: a Swedish population study.

Summary Background Depression increases the risk of a range of adverse outcomes including suicide, premature mortality, and self-harm, but associations with violent crime remain uncertain. We aimed to determine the risks of violent crime in patients with depression and to investigate the association between depressive symptoms and violent crime in a cohort of twins. Methods We conducted two studies. The first was a total population study in Sweden of patients with outpatient diagnoses of depressive disorders (n=47 158) between 2001 and 2009 and no lifetime inpatient episodes. Patients were age and sex matched to general population controls (n=898 454) and risk of violent crime was calculated. Additionally, we compared the odds of violent crime in unaffected half-siblings (n=15 534) and full siblings (n=33 516) of patients with the general population controls. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the contribution of substance abuse, sociodemographic factors, and previous criminality. In the second study, we studied a general population sample of twins (n=23 020) with continuous measures of depressive symptoms for risk of violent crime. Findings During a mean follow-up period of 3·2 years, 641 (3·7%) of the depressed men and 152 (0·5%) of the depressed women violently offended after diagnosis. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, the odds ratio of violent crime was 3·0 (95% CI 2·8–3·3) compared with the general population controls. The odds of violent crime in half-siblings (adjusted odds ratio 1·2 [95% CI 1·1–1·4]) and full siblings (1·5, 95% CI 1·3–1·6) were significantly increased, showing some familial confounding of the association between depression and violence. However, the odds increase remained significant in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial confounding, and in those without substance abuse comorbidity or a previous violent conviction (all p<0·0001). In the twin study, during the mean follow-up time of 5·4 years, 88 violent crimes were recorded. Depressive symptoms were associated with increased risk of violent crime and a sensitivity analysis identified little difference in risk estimate when all crimes (violent and non-violent) was the outcome. Interpretation Risk of violent crime was increased in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial, sociodemographic and individual factors in two longitudinal studies. Clinical guidelines should consider recommending violence risk assessment in certain subgroups with depression. Funding Wellcome Trust and the Swedish Research Council.

Experienced stigma and self-stigma in Chinese patients with schizophrenia

OBJECTIVE To investigate experienced stigma and self-stigma in patients with schizophrenia in mainland China. METHODS Ninety-five patients with schizophrenia, enrolled between January 2011 and March 2011, completed Chinese versions of two self-report questionnaires: the Internalized Stigma of Mental Illness (ISMI) scale and the Modified Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire (MCESQ). They also completed two other self-report questionnaires: the Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF) questionnaire. Patients were also assessed by a senior psychiatrist using the Scale for Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) and the Scale for Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS). All analyses were performed using SPSS 17.0 and included descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. RESULTS On the ISMI, the percentage of participants who rated themselves above the mid-point of 2.5 (meaning high level of self-stigma) on subscales and overall score was 44.2% (n=42) for alienation, 14.7% (n=14) for stereotype endorsement, 25.3% (n=24) for perceived discrimination, 32.6% (n=31) for social withdrawal and 20.0% (n=19) on the overall score. On the MCESQ, the percentage of participants who rated themselves above the mid-point of 3.0 on subscales and overall score was 24.2% (n=23) for stigma, 1.1% (n=1) for discrimination and 1.1% (n=1) on the overall score. Some socioeconomic variables, but not positive or negative symptoms, were related to the severity of psychiatric stigma. CONCLUSIONS Results document the seriousness of experienced stigma and self-stigma in persons with schizophrenia. Strategies are needed to improve how governments and persons with schizophrenia cope with stigma.

Violence as a public health problem: An ecological study of 169 countries

Individual level risk factors for violence have been widely studied, but little is known about country-level determinants, particularly in low and middle-income countries. We hypothesized that income inequality, through its detrimental effects on social cohesion, would be related to an increase in violence worldwide, and in low and middle-income countries in particular. We examined country-level associations of violence with socio-economic and health-related factors, using crime statistics from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and indicators from the Human Development Report published by the United Nations Development Programme. Using regression models, we measured relationships between country-level factors (age, education, measures of income, health expenditure, and alcohol consumption) and four violent outcomes (including measures of violence-related mortality and morbidity) in up to 169 countries. We stratified our analyses comparing high with low and middle-income countries, and analysed longitudinal data on homicide and income inequality in high-income countries. In low and middle-income countries, income inequality was related to homicide, robbery, and self-reported assault (all ps < 0.05). In high-income countries, urbanicity was significantly associated with official assault (p = 0.002, β = 0.716) and robbery (p = 0.011, β = 0.587) rates; income inequality was related to homicide (p = 0.006, β = 0.670) and self-reported assault (p = 0.020, β = 0.563), and longitudinally with homicide (p = 0.021). Worldwide, alcohol consumption was associated with self-reported assault rates (p < 0.001, β = 0.369) suggesting public policy interventions reducing alcohol consumption may contribute to reducing violence rates. Our main finding was that income inequality was related to violence in low and middle-income countries. Public health should advocate for global action to moderate income inequality to reduce the global health burden of violence.

A Systematic Review of Criminal Recidivism Rates Worldwide: Current Difficulties and Recommendations for Best Practice

Objectives To systematically review recidivism rates internationally, report whether they are comparable and, on the basis of this, develop best reporting guidelines for recidivism. Methods We searched MEDLINE, Google Web, and Google Scholar search engines for recidivism rates around the world, using both non-country-specific searches as well as targeted searches for the 20 countries with the largest total prison populations worldwide. Results We identified recidivism data for 18 countries. Of the 20 countries with the largest prison populations, only 2 reported repeat offending rates. The most commonly reported outcome was 2-year reconviction rates in prisoners. Sample selection and definitions of recidivism varied widely, and few countries were comparable. Conclusions Recidivism data are currently not valid for international comparisons. Justice Departments should consider using the reporting guidelines developed in this paper to report their data.

Suicide in prisoners with bipolar disorder and other psychiatric disorders: a systematic review

To examine the risk of suicide and suicide attempts in prisoners with bipolar disorder and other psychiatric disorders compared with prisoners without psychiatric disorders.

Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]): a derivation and validation study

Summary Background Current approaches to stratify patients with psychiatric disorders into groups on the basis of violence risk are limited by inconsistency, variable accuracy, and unscalability. To address the need for a scalable and valid tool to assess violence risk in patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we describe the derivation of a score based on routinely collected factors and present findings from external validation. Methods On the basis of a national cohort of 75 158 Swedish individuals aged 15–65 years with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder) with 574 018 patient episodes between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2008, we developed predictive models for violent offending (primary outcome) within 1 year of hospital discharge for inpatients or clinical contact with psychiatric services for outpatients (patient episode) through linkage of population-based registers. We developed a derivation model to determine the relative influence of prespecified criminal history and sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, which are mostly routinely collected, and then tested it in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of violent offending at 1 year using specified risk cutoffs. Findings Of the cohort of 75 158 patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we assigned 58 771 (78%) to the derivation sample and 16 387 (22%) to the validation sample. In the derivation sample, 830 (1%) individuals committed a violent offence within 12 months of their patient episode. We developed a 16-item model. The strongest predictors of violent offending within 12 months were conviction for previous violent crime (adjusted odds ratio 5·03 [95% CI 4·23–5·98]; p<0·0001), male sex (2·32 [1·91–2·81]; p<0·0001), and age (0·63 per 10 years of age [0·58–0·67]; p<0·0001). In external validation, the model showed good measures of discrimination (c-index 0·89 [0·85–0·93]) and calibration. For risk of violent offending at 1 year, with a 5% cutoff, sensitivity was 62% (95% CI 55–68) and specificity was 94% (93–94). The positive predictive value was 11% and the negative predictive value was more than 99%. We used the model to generate a simple web-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]). Interpretation We have developed a prediction score in a national cohort of patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, which can be used as an adjunct to decision making in clinical practice by identifying those who are at low risk of violent offending. The low positive predictive value suggests that further clinical assessment in individuals at high risk of violent offending is required to establish who might benefit from additional risk management. Further validation in other countries is needed. Funding Wellcome Trust and Swedish Research Council.