Ada T. Geerts

A model for breast cancer screening

A model for breast cancer screening has been developed. When the appropriate screening policy is specified, the model reproduces the detection rates and the incidence of interval cancers as observed in the recent screening projects in Utrecht and Nijmegen, the Netherlands. The model‐predicted mortality rate reduction is in accordance with the results of the Kopparberg/Ostergötland randomized trial in Sweden. Key parameters of the model are the duration of the preclinical stages and the sensitivity of mammography. The average duration is approximately 2 years at age 40 and increases to approximately 5 years at age 70. The sensitivity is high (approximately 95%) for tumors larger than 1 cm. The model is used in the prospective evaluation of effects and costs of various screening policies.

Course and outcome of childhood epilepsy: A 15-year follow-up of the Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood

Purpose:  To study the course and outcome of childhood‐onset epilepsy during 15‐year follow‐up (FU).

The first unprovoked, untreated seizure in childhood: a hospital based study of the accuracy of the diagnosis, rate of recurrence, and long term outcome after recurrence. Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood.

OBJECTIVE To assess the accuracy of the diagnosis of a first unprovoked seizure in childhood, the recurrence rate within two years, the risk factors for recurrence, and the long term outcome two years after recurrence. METHODS One hundred and fifty six children aged 1 month to 16 years after a first seizure, and 51 children with a single disputable event were followed up. The diagnosis of a seizure was confirmed by a panel of three child neurologists on the basis of predescribed diagnostic criteria. None of the children was treated after the first episode. RESULTS Five children with a disputable event developed epileptic seizures during follow up. The diagnosis did not have to be revised in any of the 156 children with a first seizure. The overall recurrence rate after two years was 54%. Significant risk factors were an epileptiform EEG (recurrence rate 71%) and remote symptomatic aetiology and/or mental retardation (recurrence rate 74%). For the 85 children with one or more recurrences, terminal remission irrespective of treatment two years after the first recurrence was >12 months in 50 (59%), <six months in 22 (26%), and six to 12 months in 11 (13%) and unknown in two (2%). Taking the no recurrence and recurrence groups together, a terminal remission of at least 12 months was present in 121 out of the 156 children (78%). CONCLUSIONS The diagnosis of a first seizure can be made accurately with the help of strict diagnostic criteria. The use of these criteria may have contributed to the rather high risk of recurrence in this series. However, the overall prognosis for a child presenting with a single seizure is excellent, even if treatment with antiepileptic drugs is not immediately instituted.

Familial Occurrence of Epilepsy in Children with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Seizures: Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood

Summary: Purpose: To study the familial occurrence of epilepsy in children with newly diagnosed multiple unprovoked seizures.

Reliability of the diagnosis of a first seizure

We studied the interrater variability among three neurologists of the diagnosis of a seizure in 100 patients evaluated for a possible “first seizure.” We found that use of simple descriptive diagnostic criteria and discussion among the neurologists themselves improved the diagnostic agreement.

Randomized prospective study of early discontinuation of antiepileptic drugs in children with epilepsy

We studied recurrence rate, risk factors for recurrence, and outcome after recurrence in children after early withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). One hundred sixty-one children with newly diagnosed epilepsy who had become seizure free within 2 months after starting treatment and remained so for 6 months were randomly assigned to immediate withdrawal of AEDs (n = 78) or continuation of treatment for another 6 months followed by withdrawal (n = 83). The probability of remaining seizure free at 24 months after randomization was 51% (95% CI, 40 to 62) in Group A and 52% (41 to 63) in Group B. Significant predictive factors for relapse were partial epilepsy, seizure onset at 12 years or older, defined etiology, and epileptiform EEG before randomization. At the end of follow-up (median, 41.9 months), 129 children (80.6%) had a terminal remission of at least 1 year, 88 without AEDs and 41 with AEDs. No significant difference in outcome was found between Groups A and B. In children with epilepsy and an early response to therapy, AED withdrawal after 6 or 12 months of treatment leads to seizure recurrence in approximately half of all patients regardless of the duration of therapy. More than 60% of those with one or more recurrences reach a terminal remission of at least 1 year after long-term follow-up with or without AEDs.

Idiopathic first seizure in adult life: who should be treated?

OBJECTIVE--To assess the accuracy of the diagnosis, recurrence rate, and fate after the first recurrence in adult patients with an untreated idiopathic first seizure. DESIGN--Hospital based follow up study. SETTING--One university hospital and three general hospitals in The Netherlands. PATIENTS--165 patients aged 15 years or more with a clinically presumed idiopathic seizure; diagnosis was based on a description of the episode according to prespecified diagnostic criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Results of additional investigations and follow up regarding the accuracy of the diagnosis; first recurrence; and response to treatment after the first recurrence. RESULTS--Computed tomography showed major abnormalities in 5.5% of the patients and follow up led to doubts about the initial clinical diagnosis in another 6%. Cumulative risk of recurrence was 40% at two years. The cumulative risk of recurrence at two years was 81% (95% confidence interval 66% to 97%) in patients with epileptic discharges on a standard or partial sleep deprivation electroencephalogram, 39% (27% to 51%) in patients with other electroencephalographic abnormalities, and 12% (3% to 21%) in patients with normal electroencephalograms. Treatment was initiated in most patients who had one or more recurrences; 40 (70%) patients were completely controlled, eight (14%) had sporadic seizures, and nine (16%) did not become free of seizures within one year despite treatment. CONCLUSIONS--The decision to initiate or delay treatment should be based on electroencephalographic findings.

The Diagnostic Yield of a Second EEG After Partial Sleep Deprivation: A Prospective Study in Children with Newly Diagnosed Seizures

Summary: Purpose: To assess the diagnostic yield of a repeated EEG (REPEEG) after partial sleep deprivation (SD) in children and adolescents with one or more seizures who previously had had a standard EEG (STDEEG) without epileptiform abnormalities (EAs). In the literature, 32–75% of such REPEEGs after SD were reported to show EA.

Mortality Risks in New-Onset Childhood Epilepsy

OBJECTIVES: Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. METHODS: Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of newly diagnosed patients were combined. Causes of death were classified as seizure related (including sudden unexpected death [SUDEP]), natural causes, nonnatural causes, and unknown. RESULTS: Of 2239 subjects followed up for >30 000 person-years, 79 died. Ten subjects with lethal neurometabolic conditions were ultimately excluded. The overall death rate (per 100 000 person-years) was 228; 743 in complicated epilepsy (with associated neurodisability or underlying brain condition) and 36 in uncomplicated epilepsy. Thirteen deaths were seizure-related (10 SUDEP, 3 other), accounting for 19% of all deaths. Seizure-related death rates were 43 overall, 122 for complicated epilepsy, and 14 for uncomplicated epilepsy. Death rates from other natural causes were 159, 561, and 9, respectively. Of 48 deaths from other natural causes, 37 were due to pneumonia or other respiratory complications. CONCLUSIONS: Most excess death in young people with epilepsy is not seizure-related. Mortality is significantly higher compared with the general population in children with complicated epilepsy but not uncomplicated epilepsy. The SUDEP rate was similar to or higher than sudden infant death syndrome rates. In uncomplicated epilepsy, sudden and seizure-related death rates were similar to or higher than rates for other common causes of death in young people (eg, accidents, suicides, homicides). Relating the risk of death in epilepsy to familiar risks may facilitate discussions of seizure-related mortality with patients and families.

Health perception and socioeconomic status following childhood-onset epilepsy: The Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood

Purpose: Epilepsy may have far‐reaching consequences for patients, other than having seizures and medication. At 15 years after diagnosis, this study investigates health perception, restrictions due to epilepsy, living arrangements (including marital status and offspring), and the educational and occupational attainment of patients with childhood‐onset epilepsy.