Adam L. Atchley

Human health risk assessment of CO2 leakage into overlying aquifers using a stochastic, geochemical reactive transport approach.

Increased human health risk associated with groundwater contamination from potential carbon dioxide (CO2) leakage into a potable aquifer is predicted by conducting a joint uncertainty and variability (JUV) risk assessment. The approach presented here explicitly incorporates heterogeneous flow and geochemical reactive transport in an efficient manner and is used to evaluate how differences in representation of subsurface physical heterogeneity and geochemical reactions change the calculated risk for the same hypothetical aquifer scenario where a CO2 leak induces increased lead (Pb(2+)) concentrations through dissolution of galena (PbS). A nested Monte Carlo approach was used to take Pb(2+) concentrations at a well from an ensemble of numerical reactive transport simulations (uncertainty) and sample within a population of potentially exposed individuals (variability) to calculate risk as a function of both uncertainty and variability. Pb(2+) concentrations at the well were determined with numerical reactive transport simulation ensembles using a streamline technique in a heterogeneous 3D aquifer. Three ensembles with variances of log hydraulic conductivity (σ(2)lnK) of 1, 3.61, and 16 were simulated. Under the conditions simulated, calculated risk is shown to be a function of the strength of subsurface heterogeneity, σ(2)lnK and the choice between calculating Pb(2+) concentrations in groundwater using equilibrium with galena and kinetic mineral reaction rates. Calculated risk increased with an increase in σ(2)lnK of 1 to 3.61, but decreased when σ(2)lnK was increased from 3.61 to 16 for all but the highest percentiles of uncertainty. Using a Pb(2+) concentration in equilibrium with galena under CO2 leakage conditions (PCO2 = 30 bar) resulted in lower estimated risk than the simulations where Pb(2+) concentrations were calculated using kinetic mass transfer reaction rates for galena dissolution and precipitation. This study highlights the importance of understanding both hydrologic and geochemical conditions when numerical simulations are used to perform quantitative risk calculations.

The effects of physical and geochemical heterogeneities on hydro-geochemical transport and effective reaction rates

The role of coupled physical and geochemical heterogeneities in hydro-geochemical transport is investigated by simulating three-dimensional transport in a heterogeneous system with kinetic mineral reactions. Ensembles of 100 physically heterogeneous realizations were simulated for three geochemical conditions: 1) spatially homogeneous reactive mineral surface area, 2) reactive surface area positively correlated to hydraulic heterogeneity, and 3) reactive surface area negatively correlated to hydraulic heterogeneity. Groundwater chemistry and the corresponding effective reaction rates were calculated at three transverse planes to quantify differences in plume evolution due to heterogeneity in mineral reaction rates and solute residence time (τ). The model is based on a hypothetical CO2 intrusion into groundwater from a carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) operation where CO2 dissolution and formation of carbonic acid created geochemical dis-equilibrium between fluids and the mineral galena that resulted in increased aqueous lead (Pb(2+)) concentrations. Calcite dissolution buffered the pH change and created conditions of galena oversaturation, which then reduced lead concentrations along the flow path. Near the leak kinetic geochemical reactions control the release of solutes into the fluid, but further along the flow path mineral solubility controls solute concentrations. Simulation results demonstrate the impact of heterogeneous distribution of geochemical reactive surface area in coordination with physical heterogeneity on the effective reaction rate (Krxn,eff) and Pb(2+) concentrations within the plume. Dissimilarities between ensemble Pb(2+) concentration and Krxn,eff are attributed to how geochemical heterogeneity affects the time (τeq) and therefore advection distance (Leq) required for the system to re-establish geochemical equilibrium. Only after geochemical equilibrium is re-established, Krxn,eff and Pb(2+) concentrations are the same for all three geochemical conditions. Correlation between reactive surface area and hydraulic conductivity, either positive or negative, results in variation in τeq and Leq.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication currently in review [4/2016]. The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used to simulate thermal hydrological conditions across varied environmental conditions for an ensemble of 1D models of Arctic permafrost. The thickness of organic soil is varied from 2 to 40cm, snow depth is varied from approximately 0 to 1.2 meters, water table depth was varied from -51cm below the soil surface to 31 cm above the soil surface. A total of 15,960 ensemble members are included. Data produced includes the third and fourth simulation year: active layer thickness, time of deepest thaw depth, temperature of the unfrozen soil, and unfrozen liquid saturation, for each ensemble member. Input files used to run the ensemble are also included.

Predicting Climate Feedbacks and Impacts in the Terrestrial Arctic: w14_terraarctic progress report

Regarding the Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), previous work solved integrated hydrology (coupled surface/subsurface flow) on multiple polygons, and surface flow over larger domains to guide landscape characterization. Solved thermal hydrology with freeze/thaw dynamics in three dimensions. Ongoing efforts apply state of the art thermal hydrology model to complex topography, and include mesh deformation processes.

Calibrated Hydrothermal Parameters, Barrow, Alaska, 2013

A model-observation-experiment process (ModEx) is used to generate three 1D models of characteristic micro-topographical land-formations, which are capable of simulating present active thaw layer (ALT) from current climate conditions. Each column was used in a coupled calibration to identify moss, peat and mineral soil hydrothermal properties to be used in up-scaled simulations. Observational soil temperature data from a tundra site located near Barrow, AK (Area C) is used to calibrate thermal properties of moss, peat, and sandy loam soil to be used in the multiphysics Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) models. Simulation results are a list of calibrated hydrothermal parameters for moss, peat, and mineral soil hydrothermal parameters.