Adam Millard-Ball

Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries

Abstract Projections of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries typically show continued growth in vehicle ownership, vehicle use and overall travel demand. This growth represents a continuation of trends from the 1970s through the early 2000s. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of cross‐national passenger transport trends in eight industrialized countries, providing evidence to suggest that these trends may have halted. Through decomposing passenger transport energy use into activity, modal structure and modal energy intensity, we show that increases in total activity (passenger travel) have been the driving force behind increased energy use, offset somewhat by declining energy intensity. We show that total activity growth has halted relative to GDP in recent years in the eight countries examined. If these trends continue, it is possible that an accelerated decline in the energy intensity of car travel; stagnation in total travel per capita; some shifts back to rail and bus modes; and at least somewhat less carbon per unit of energy could leave the absolute levels of emissions in 2020 or 2030 lower than today.

Cap-and-Trade: Five Implications for Transportation Planners

This paper identifies for transportation planners five key implications of extending cap-and-trade for greenhouse gas emissions to the transportation sector, as envisaged in legislative and regulatory proposals in the U.S. Congress and in the western states and Canadian provinces. First, cap-and-trade would increase gasoline prices as refiners and fuel importers pass on the cost of carbon allowances; a

Where Does Carsharing Work? Using Geographic Information Systems to Assess Market Potential

30 per metric ton price of carbon allowances equates to 27 cents per gallon of gasoline. Second, transit, smart growth, and other emission reduction projects might be eligible for billions of dollars in revenue from carbon allowance auctions. Third, as emissions would be constrained at the level of the cap, transportation projects would be unlikely to have any impact on aggregate emissions. Any environmental benefit of a project (reduced emissions) would be converted into an economic benefit (reduced carbon allowance prices and thus reduced compliance costs in other sectors). Fourth, the converse of this argument suggests a weakening of the potential to use the environmental review process to mitigate emissions from development projects. There may be an economic impact (higher carbon allowance prices), but not an environmental impact (emissions would be constrained at the level of the cap). Finally, extending cap-and-trade to the transportation sector would eliminate the potential for revenue from the sale of offsets, as this would double count emission reductions.

Who is attracted to carsharing

A tool to assess the market potential for new carsharing operations in urban communities is examined and applied. The research is based on the analysis conducted for TCRP Report 108: Carsharing: Where and How It Succeeds. Geographic market segments in urban areas are analyzed. A geographic information system (GIS)–based analysis of 13 U.S. regions finds that neighborhood and transportation characteristics are more important indicators for carsharing success than the individual demographics of carsharing members. Results indicate that low vehicle ownership has the strongest, most consistent correlation to the amount of carsharing service in a neighborhood. Thresholds based on analysis results are outlined for low service (i.e., carsharing may be viable but limited growth can be expected) and high service (i.e., carsharing is likely to flourish). This tool to identify neighborhoods that can support carsharing is applied to a community seeking to establish a carsharing program: Austin, Texas. The analysis finds that several Austin neighborhoods have the characteristics to support carsharing (e.g., low vehicle ownership rates and high percentages of one-person households), but few Austin neighborhoods could support a high level of carsharing service.

The Limits to Planning: Causal Impacts of City Climate Action Plans

Carsharing offers access to cars and other vehicles without ownership of those vehicles. This transportation option is growing rapidly in the United States and Canada. In appropriate community settings, carsharing can increase mobility, reduce vehicle travel, and complement other transportation modes. In a TCRP project that provided a wide-ranging analysis of carsharing in North America, direct contacts with carsharing members through focus groups and a web-based survey were used to determine demographic characteristics of users, their travel patterns, and their attitudes about carsharing. Special attention was paid to why members joined carsharing organizations, how they used the services, and what they liked and disliked about carsharing. With descriptive statistics from the Internet survey and qualitative analyses of focus group results (both checked against previous literature), it was determined that carsharing appeals to individuals who can be considered to be social activists, environmental protectors, innovators, economizers, or practical travelers. Carsharing companies and their partners could conceivably increase their membership by targeting such individuals and others with certain demographic characteristics.

The Tuvalu Syndrome

If planning is to matter for urban development and policy, it is not sufficient for plans to be implemented. Plans and planning must also have a causal role—they must lead to outcomes that would not be realized otherwise. In case studies of municipal climate action planning in California, I find little evidence for any causal impacts. Instead, cities are using climate plans to codify policies that were likely to happen anyway. The results call for a more nuanced view of when it makes sense to plan, what types of plans are most useful, and how to evaluate a plan’s effects.

A century of sprawl in the United States

Geoengineering research has historically been inhibited by fears that the perceived availability of a technological fix for climate change, such as the deployment of space-based deflectors, may undermine greenhouse gas abatement efforts. I develop a game theoretic model to show that the credible threat of unilateral geoengineering may instead strengthen global abatement and lead to a self-enforcing climate treaty with full participation. A ‘rogue nation’ may wish to unilaterally geoengineer if it faces extreme climate damages (as with Tuvalu), or if there are minimal local side effects from geoengineering, such as hydrological cycle disruption or stratospheric ozone depletion. However, the costly global side effects of geoengineering may make it individually rational for other countries to reduce emissions to the level where this rogue nation no longer wishes to unilaterally geoengineer. My results suggest a need to model the impacts of a “selfish geoengineer” intent only on maximizing net domestic benefits, as well as a “benevolent geoengineer” out to restore global mean temperature and minimize global side effects.

Municipal Mobility Manager: New Transportation Funding Stream from Carbon Trading?

Significance Urban development patterns in the 20th century have been increasingly typified by urban sprawl, which exacerbates climate change, energy and material consumption, and public health challenges. We construct the first long-run, high-resolution time series of street-network sprawl in the United States. We find that even in the absence of a coordinated policy effort, new developments have already turned the corner toward less sprawl. Initial impacts on vehicle travel and greenhouse gas emissions will be modest given that the stock of streets changes slowly, but feedbacks are likely to mean that benefits compound in future years. Our publicly released data provide further opportunities for research on urban development and the social and environmental impacts of different urban forms. The urban street network is one of the most permanent features of cities. Once laid down, the pattern of streets determines urban form and the level of sprawl for decades to come. We present a high-resolution time series of urban sprawl, as measured through street network connectivity, in the United States from 1920 to 2012. Sprawl started well before private car ownership was dominant and grew steadily until the mid-1990s. Over the last two decades, however, new streets have become significantly more connected and grid-like; the peak in street-network sprawl in the United States occurred in ∼1994. By one measure of connectivity, the mean nodal degree of intersections, sprawl fell by ∼9% between 1994 and 2012. We analyze spatial variation in these changes and demonstrate the persistence of sprawl. Places that were built with a low-connectivity street network tend to stay that way, even as the network expands. We also find suggestive evidence that local government policies impact sprawl, as the largest increases in connectivity have occurred in places with policies to promote gridded streets and similar New Urbanist design principles. We provide for public use a county-level version of our street-network sprawl dataset comprising a time series of nearly 100 y.

Peak oil demand: the role of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels in a global oil production decline.

This paper analyzes five different options for incorporating the transportation sector into a carbon cap-and-trade program. An upstream system at the refinery or importer level would be administratively simple but would lead to minimal reductions in transportation emissions as a result of inelastic demand for driving. In effect, emissions reductions would be “exported” to the electricity generation and industrial sectors. A downstream system at the household level would lead to similar changes in emissions but would raise major administrative and privacy issues. Greater changes in behavior might result from a vehicle manufacturer–based scheme, but there are complex administrative issues. Tailpipe standards appear to be achieving the same result. An offset system would provide financial incentives for a wider range of abatement measures, including those undertaken by local governments such as smart growth zoning, parking pricing, and transit improvements. Empirical experience with the Clean Development Mechanism, however, suggests that transportation offsets, particularly those reliant on travel behavior changes, face significant hurdles in proving “additionality” and documenting emissions savings. This paper therefore proposes a “municipal mobility manager” trading design, under which local governments would assume responsibility for transportation emissions. This would give them the same financial incentives to implement abatement measures as under an offset scheme but would avoid the methodological and administrative challenges. The paper also argues that any design for including transportation in a carbon trading program will be beneficial because it would avoid the tendency to overallocate allowances to other sectors and force more realism in the expected emissions reductions from transportation.

Pedestrians, Autonomous Vehicles, and Cities:

Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services, (b) all liquid fuels, and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010 to 2100 (close to the U.S. Geological Survey median estimate of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance-oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.